NL Betting Preview: Colorado Opens 3 Game Set against S.F. Giants

Colorado Rockies (26-29) AT San Francisco Giants (31-25)
June 3rd, 2011 at 10:15 PM EST
Opening Moneyline:  SF -145, COL +125
Current Moneyline:  SF -125, COL +104
Opening Total:  7
Current Total:  7

SP:  COL- Juan Nicasio; SF- Matt Cain

Aubrey Huff seems to be breaking out of his season-long funk

Matt Cain has been pitching well, but getting run support has been a problem for Cain, who has a losing record of 3-4 despite a respectable 3.88 ERA.  What’s more, in his last two starts he has received no runs at all.  As we know, it’s impossible to win a game without any run support.  Against the Rockies, Cain is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA in three career home starts and the Giants are 5-3 in the season series, and they swept the Rockies at AT&T Park May 6-8.

The Rockies are hoping to rebound after a terrible month of May, in which they won only 8 of 29 games and went from 18-8 to being three games under .500.  “It’s a new month, a new start for us.” left fielder Carlos Gonzalez said.  Moreover, the Rockies have dropped 11 of 14 on the road and are 1-2 in their current 9 game3 trip which will conclude with 3 games against the horribly struggling Padres.

Juan Nicasio will take the mound for the Rockies, after having a very impressive major league debut.  He gave up only one run (unearned) and 6 hits in 7 innings and recorded the win.  He is considered one of the Rockies top pitching prospects.  He posted a 5.30 strike out to walk ratio over the last two seasons in the minors due to his strong arm and outstanding pitch control.  According to Baseball Prospectus, he was projected to be no more than a “back-end starter” at the major league level, but his debut provided hope otherwise.  His PECOTA projection calls for a 9-11 record with a 5.27 ERA.

“I’m excited because it’s my second start in the big leagues, but I’m going to just try to make my pitches,” Nicasio said through an interpreter. “I’m not worried about what team I’m pitching against, just what I need to do. I’m going to try to make my pitch down in the zone. I always try to do that, throw down in the zone.”

Both Rockies sluggers Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez have struggled against the Giants this season.  Tulowitzki is batting .207 and Gonzalez is at .185.  Life time against Matt Caini, Tulowitzki is 17 of 51 with 4 HRs, 4 doubles, and a triple; but Carlos Gonzalez is 3 of 25 with 7 Ks.  In the last series against the Giants, they combined to go 3 of 20.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado’s last 6 games and the Rockies are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games.  The Rockies are 1-5 SU in their last 6 on the road and they are 4-9 SU in their last 13 against the Giants.  The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Colorado’s last 13 games on the road against the Giants and the Rockies are 0-5 SU In their last 5 games on the road against the Giants.

The San Francisco Giants are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games at home and the total has gone UNDER In 8 of their last 11 at home.  The Giants are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games against the Colorado Rockies and the total has gone UNDER in 12 of the last 13 home games against Colorado.  The Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 at home against the Rockies.

We’ll get to see what Nicasio is really made of tonight.   Aubrey Huff has finally snapped out of his funk and should give the rookie a good test.  San Francisco is favored, perhaps due to Nicasio’s lack of major league experience.

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