NFL Week Three Betting Picks: Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, September 24, 2017, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
StubHub Center – Carson, California
Opening Line: Kansas City -3 (-105)
Current Line: Kansas City -3 (-105)
Opening Total: 45 1/2
Current Total: 48
Opening Money Line: Chiefs -140 / Chargers +120
Current Money Line: Chiefs -160 / Chargers +140

The Chiefs look to remain undefeated as they travel to the winless Chargers Sunday.

The Los Angeles Chargers are 0-2 but are five points away from being 2-0. The problem is the other three teams in the AFC West are all 2-0. The Chargers host the 2-0 Kansas City Chiefs Sunday in Carson in a key divisional battle.

Kansas City leads the series 58-55-1 against Los Angeles/San Diego. The Chiefs have beaten the Chargers six straight times including both meetings last year. Kansas City opened the season with a 33-27 overtime win at home against the then San Diego Chargers. The teams closed the season last year in the last game for the Chargers in San Diego, with the Chiefs winning 37-27. This rivalry dates back to 1960 the first year of the AFL.

Kansas City is coached by Andy Reid. The Chiefs beat the New England Patriots 42-27 in week one and last week beat the Philadelphia Eagles 27-20 at home. Kansas City was a 4 point favorite against Philadelphia and the total was 46.5. The Chiefs led 6-3 at halftime against the Eagles, and led 27-13 in the fourth. The Eagles scored a touchdown with 8 seconds left to put the game over the total. Kansas City is 2-0 ATS and the total is 2-0 this season.

Los Angeles is coached by Anthony Lynn. The Chargers lost at the Denver Broncos 24-21 in week one and last week lost at home to the Miami Dolphins 19-17. LA was a 3.5 point favorite against Miami and the total was 46. The Chargers led 17-10 in the third, but the Dolphins kicked three straight field goals to take a two point lead with just over a minute left in the game. For the second straight week, rookie kicker Younghoe Koo missed a a potential game tying or winning field goal in the closing seconds, this time from 44 yards. The Chargers are 0-1-1 ATS and the total is 1-1 this season.

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Kansas City is outscoring teams 35-24 this season. Kansas City is #3 in scoring.  The Chiefs average 441 total yards per game on offense including 292 passing and 149 rushing yards per game. KC is in the top 5 in all three categories. Kansas City allows 389 total yards per game on defense including 273 passing and 115 rushing. The Chiefs are #29 in yards allowed. The Chiefs are 9/23 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 13/32. Kansas City  has forced 9 sacks and allowed 7 sacks last season. The Chiefs are +1 in turnovers.

Quarterback Alex Smith has completed 77.8% of his passes for 619 yards with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions, and has 9 carries for 24 yards. Smith is the starter without question but he had to hold off hard charging rookie Patrick Mahomes for the job. Mahomes is the quarterback of the future

Rookie running back Kareem Hunt has 30 carries for 229 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 8 carries for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns. Charcandrick West has a rushing touchdown in his only carry of the season.

Receiver Tyreek Hill has 11 catches for 176 yards and a touchdown, plus 3 carries for 19 yards. Tight end Travis Kelce has 13 catches for 143 yards and a touchdown.   Receiver Chris Conley has 6 catches for 98 yards. Albert Wilson has 7 catches for 59 yards. Eight defensive players are listed on the injury report along with three offensive linemen.

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Los Angeles is being outscored  22-19 this season. The Chargers  average 308 yards per game on offense including 254 passing yards and 54 rushing yards. LA is #9 in passing but #31 in rushing. On defense, Los Angeles allows 329 yards per game including 203 passing yards per game and 126 rushing yards. The Chargers are 6/22 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 13/29. The Chargers have forced 2 sacks and has allowed 6  this season. LA is  +1 in turnovers.

Quarterback Philip Rivers has completed 73.6% of his passes for 526 yards with 4 touchdowns and an interception. He has been sacked two times this year.  Kellen Clemens is the back-up.

Running back Melvin Gordon has 27 carries for 67 yards and a touchdown, plus 12 catches for 90 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a knee injury. Branden Oliver has 7 catches for 41 yards.

Receiver Keenan Allen has 14 catches for 135 yards and a touchdown. Tyrell Williams has 9 catches for 108 yards.   Tight end Hunter Henry has 7 catches for 80 yards. Travis Benjamin has 4 catches for 54 yards and a touchdown. Another receiver, first round draft pick Mike Williams is out for the first month of the season wit a back injury. Tight end Antonio Gates has 4 catches for 28 yards and a touchdown.  Seven defensive players and six offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

Kansas City is 7-0 ATS in road games, 5-0 against AFC West teams, 4-0 against teams with losing home records, 6-1 in week three, and after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 4-1 overall, 5-2 after a straight up win, after a cover, against AFC teams, and on grass, plus 1-7 after allowing 350 yards or more. The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS against the Chargers and have covered the last four road games in the series. The road team is 4-0 ATS in this series recently.

Los Angeles is 11-4-2 ATS in September, 1-3-1 after passing for 250 yards or more, 5-17 at home, 1-4 against teams with winning records, 3-12 against teams with winning road records, 1-5-1 in week three, 0-5-1 after a straight up loss, 0-4-1 after failing to cover, 0-5 after rushing for less than 90 yards and gaining more than 350 total yards, 0-6-1 overall, 0-4-1 against AFC teams, 0-3-1 against AFC West teams, and 0-7-1 on grass.

If this is anything like last week’s “home game” for the Chargers in the 30,000 seat StubHub Center, expect a lot of red clad Chiefs fans in the stands. There were a lot of Dolphins fans in the stands and the game didn’t even sell out. The Chiefs have suddenly developed an explosive offense thanks to young stars Kareem Hunt and Tyreke Hill. This should be a high scoring game and I like the Chiefs to win and cover.

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