NFL Week Six Thursday Night Football: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
NRG Stadium – Houston, Texas

Thursday, October 9, 2014, 8:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS/NFL Network
Opening Line: Indianapolis -2 1/2 (+100)
Current Line: Indianapolis -3 (+105)
Opening Total: 45
Current Total: 46
Opening Money Line: Colts -150 / Texans +130
Current Money Line: Colts -140 / Texans +120

The Colts are 2.5 point favorites at the Texans Thursday night in a battle for first place in the AFC South.
The Colts are 2.5 point favorites at the Texans Thursday night in a battle for first place in the AFC South.

Through five weeks of Thursday Night NFL games every game has been decided by 20 points or more. The League can’t be happy with so many blowouts in one of their showcase games every week. They hope that trend is reversed this week as the 3-2 Indianapolis Colts and 3-2 Houston Texans meet Thursday night in Houston in a battle for first place in the AFC South.

Indianapolis has dominated the series since Houston joined the NFL as an expansion team in 2002. The Colts lead the series 20-4, and have won 3 straight games in the series. Indianapolis won last year in Houston 27-24 and at home 25-3. The Texans will make the return trip to Indianapolis December 14.

Indianapolis is coached by Chuck Pagano. After losing the first 2 games of the season at the Denver Broncos 31-24 and at home to the Philadelphia Eagles 30-27, the Colts have won 3 straight games. Indianapolis won 44-17 at the Jacksonville Jaguars and at home against the Tennessee Titans 41-17 and last week against the Baltimore 20-13. The Colts are 4-1 ATS and the total is also 4-1 this season. Indianapolis was a 2.5 point favorite against the Ravens and the total was 49.5.

Houston is coached by Bill O’Brien. The Texans have home wins over the Washington Redskins 17-6 and the Buffalo Bills 23-17, along with a road win over the Oakland Raiders 30-14. Houston has road losses at the New York Giants 30-17 and last week at the Dallas Cowboys 20-17 in overtime. Houston is 4-1 ATS and the total is 2-3 this season. The Texans were 5 point underdogs at the Cowboys last week and the total was 47.5.

Indianapolis is outscoring teams 31-22 this season. The Colts lead the league in scoring. Indianapolis is averaging 440 yards per game on offense including 322 passing 118 rushing yards. The Colts are #2 in total offense and #1 in passing. On defense, Indianapolis is allowing 342 yards per game including 240 passing and 102 rushing yards. The Colts are 33/75 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 19/59. Indianapolis has forced 12 sacks and allowed 6 this season. The Colts are +1 in turnovers. Indianapolis has a defensive touchdown.

Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck has completed 68.1% of his passes for 1,617 yards with 14 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 19 carries for 65 yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw has 49  carries for 250 yards, plus 18 catches for 151 yards and 4 touchdowns. Trent Richardson has 70 carries for 240 yards and a touchdown, along with 15 catches for 132 yards. Receiver Reggie Wayne has 30 catches for 384 yards and a touchdown. T.Y. Hilton has 31 catches for 381 yards. Tight end Dwayne Allen has  15 catches for 204 yards and 4 touchdowns. Coby Fleener and Hakeem Nicks each have two touchdown catches. Seventeen Colts players are listed on the injury report including 6 offensive linemen and 9 defensive players.

Houston is outscoring teams 21-17 this season. The Texans are #4 in points allowed. Houston is averaging 338 yards per game on offense including 211 passing and 127 rushing yards. On defense, Houston is allowing 385 yards per game including 253 passing and 132 rushing yards. The Texans are 29/71 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 24/67. Houston has forced 7 sacks and allowed 5 this season. Houston has 2 defensive touchdowns this season. The Texans are +4 in turnovers.

Houston quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed 65% of his passes for 1,056 yards with 5 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 20 carries for 61 yards and a touchdown. Running back Arian Foster has 86 carries for 404 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 13 carries for 99 yards. Alfred Blue has 39 carries for 143 yards, along with 3 catches. Receiver DeAndre Hopkins has 24 catches for 354 yards and 3 touchdowns. Andre Johnson has 27 catches for 320 yards. Tight end Garrett Graham has 10 catches for 98 yards. Nine defensive players are on the injury report for the Texans along with 3 offensive linemen.

Indianapolis is 10-1-1 ATS in Thursday games, 5-1 after a straight up win, on grass, and in October, 14-3 against AFC South teams, 8-2 overall, 16-5 after passing for more than 250 yards, 21-8 against AFC teams, 5-2 after a cover and after gaining more than 350 total yards, 33-16-2 after allowing less than 15 points, 2-6 against teams with winning home records, and 0-3-1 in Week Six. The favorite 5-2 ATS in this series recently. The Colts are 4-1 ATS against the Texans in the last five games.

Houston is 4-0 ATS on grass, 5-1 overall, 6-13 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 3-7 at home, 1-4 against teams with winning road records, 2-9 after a cover, 1-5 after rushing for more than 150 yards, 1-6 against AFC South teams, 0-4 in Thursday games and in Week Six. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 game sin this series. The under is 6-1 overall in this series, but the over is 7-2 in Houston in the series.

Houston gives up a lot of yards but not a lot of points. That is because of the positive turnover ratio. Indianapolis is relying on their offense, as the defense hasn’t been great so far, but not terrible either. I think the colts pull of a close road win in a high scoring game.

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