NFL Week Four Betting Picks: New York Giants at Washington Redskins

New York Giants at Washington Redskins
FedEx Field – Landover, Maryland

Thursday, September 25, 2014, 8:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Network
Opening Line: Washington -4
Current Line: Washington -3 1/2
Opening Total: 46 1/2
Current Total: 45
Opening Money Line: Redskins -186 / Giants +169
Current Money Line: Redskins -190 / Giants +165

The Redskins are 3.5 point favorites at home against NFC East rival the Giants Thursday night.
The Redskins are 3.5 point favorites at home against NFC East rival the Giants Thursday night.

Both the New York Giants and Washington Redskins are 1-2 as they renew their long standing NFC East rivalry Thursday night in Landover. It is early in the season but this is still a crucial contest in the division. The Philadelphia Eagles lead the division with a 3-0 record and the Dallas Cowboys are 2-1 this season. The loser of the Giants and Redskins could be in a 3 game hole after four games depending on what the Eagles and Cowboys do this weekend. 

Since 2001, the Giants lead the series against the Redskins 18-8. New York won both meetings last year including 24-17 at Washington and 20-6 at home in the season finale last year. Washington will make the trip to East Rutherford December 14.

New York is coached by Tom Coughlin. After season opening losses at the Detroit Lions 35-14 and at home against the Arizona Cardinals 25-14, the Giants rebounded with a 30-17 home win over the previously 2-0 Houston Texans last Sunday. New York is 1-2 ATS and the total is 2-1 this season. The Giants were 1 point favorites against the Texans and the total was 41.5.

Washington is coached by Jay Gruden. The Redskins have a home win over the Jacksonville Jaguars 41-10. Washington has road losses at the Texans 17-6 and at the Eagles 37-34 last Sunday. Washington took an early 17-7 lead against the Eagles but were unable to hold the lead. The Redskins are 2-1 ATS and the total is 2-1 this season. Washington was a 4 point underdog at Philadelphia and the total was 50.5.

New York is being outscored 25-19 this season. The Giants are #25 in both scoring and points allowed. New York is averaging 319 total yards per game including 210 passing yards and 109 rushing yards. On defense, the Giants are allowing 365 total yards per game including 258 passing and 106 rushing yards per game. New York is 15/42 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 18/42. The Giants have forced 7 sacks and allowed 5 this season. New York is -4 in turnovers. The Giants have allowed one special teams touchdown this season.

New York quarterback Eli Manning has completed 65% of his passes for 674 yards with 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Running back Rashad Jennings has 68 carries for 286 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 95 yards. Andre Williams will also get a few carries. Receiver Victor Cruz has 12 catches for 191 yards and a touchdown. Larry Donnell has 18 catches for 182 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Daniel Fells has only 4 catches but two went for touchdowns. The Giants have a ton of injuries especially on the offensive line with four players at least questionable and the receiving corps with five players. Five defensive players are also at least questionable.

Washington is outscoring teams 27-21 this season. The Redskins are #5 in scoring and #12 in points allowed. Washington is averaging 444 total yards per game including 309 passing yards and 135 rushing yards. The Redskins are #9 or better in all three categories. Washington is 18/45 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 14/39. The Redskins have 10 sacks and have allowed 6 this season. Washington is even in turnovers. The Redskins have allowed a defensive and a special teams touchdown.

Kirk Cousins took over at quarterback against Jacksonville for an injured Robert Griffin III, who is likely out for the season with a dislocated ankle. Cousins has completed 64.2% of his passes for 677 yards with 5 touchdowns and an interception. Running back Alfred Morris has 59 carries for 253 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with a knee injury suffered Sunday against the Eagles. Roy Helu has 13 carries for 72 yards and a touchdown, plus 5 catches for 81 yards. Tight end Niles Paul has 18 catches for 253 yards and a touchdown. Pierre Garcon has 22 catches for 227 yards and a touchdown. DeSean Jackson has 14 catches for 198 yards and a touchdown. Darrell Young has only 4 catches but two touchdowns. Tight end Jordan Reed is questionable with a hamstring injury. Ten defensive players are listed on the injury report for Washington.

New York is 6-1-1 ATS in week 4 games, 5-1 in Thursday games, 40-17-2 after rushing for 150 yards or more, 4-9 in road games, 3-7 after a win, after a cover and after allowing 250 passing yards or more, and 1-6-1 in September.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in this series recently. The last 5 games in the series have gone under the total.

Washington is 4-0 ATS in week 4, 7-1 after scoring 30 points or more, 7-3 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 15-31-3 against teams with losing records, 4-10 against NFC teams, 2-5 against NFC East teams, 2-7 after a cover, 5-19-2 against teams with losing road records, and 1-4 after gaining more than 350 total yards. The under is 5-2 in Washington in this series recently. The Redskins are 5-2 ATS against the Giants recently.

I am not sure how good either of these teams are. Both have struggled on defense and this should be a high scoring game. I think the Redskins have more fire power though and that should be enough.

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