NFL Week Five Betting Preview: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, October 8, 2017, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
Opening Line: Dallas -2 1/2
Current Line: Dallas -2 1/2
Opening Total: 53
Current Total: 52
Opening Money Line: Cowboys -135 / Packers +115
Current Money Line: Cowboys -140 / Packers +120

Dallas and Green Bay renew their rivalry Sunday in Dallas.

The 3-1 Green Bay Packers and 2-2 Dallas Cowboys renew their rivalry Sunday in Arlington, Texas. Green Bay is tied with the Detroit Lions for first place in the NFC North. Dalals is tied with the Washington redskins for second in the NFC East, but both teams are a game behind the 3-1 Philadelphia Eagles.

Green Bay leads the series 18-17 against Dallas. The Packers have won six of the last seven games against the Cowboys. Dallas snapped a five game losing streak to Green Bay last year during the regular season with a 30-16 win at Lambeau. However, the Packers upset the #1 seeded Cowboys 34-31 in the NFC Divisional playoffs last January.

Green Bay is coached by Mike McCarthy. The Packers are 3-1 this season. Green Bay has home wins over the Seattle Seahawks 17-9, the Cincinnati Bengals 27-24 in overtime and Chicago Bears 35-14 last Thursday night. The Packers lost at the Atlanta Falcons  34-23. Against Chicago, Green Bay was a 7.5 point favorite and the total was 44. The Packers are 2-2 ATS and the total is 3-1 this season.

Dallas is coached by Jason Garrett. The Cowboys have a home win over the New York Giants 19-3 and a road win over the Arizona Cardinals 28-17. Dallas has a road loss at the Denver Broncos 42-17 and a home loss last week to the Los Angeles Rams 35-30. The Cowboys led 24-13 against the Rams but LA would score 19 straight points to take a 32-24 lead. Dallas was a 5 point favorite against Los Angeles and the total was 51. The Cowboys are 2-2 ATS and the total is 2-2 as well.

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Green Bay is outscoring teams 26-20 this year. Green Bay is #8 in scoring. The Packers average 335 yards per game on offense including 261 passing and 75 rushing yards. Green Bay is #10 in passing, but #28 in rushing. On defense, Green Bay allows 300 total yards per game including 189 passing and 111 rushing yards per game. The Packers are #6 in total defense and #5 in pass defense. Green Bay is 32/61 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 19/49. The Packers have forced 10 sacks and allowed 15 this season. Green Bay is +2 in turnovers and has allowed two defensive touchdowns.

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 66.9% of his passes for 1,146 yards with 10 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 14 carries  for 51 yards. Rodgers has been sacked 15 times in four games, which is a concern.

Receiver turned running back Ty Montgomery has 46 carries for 152 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 18 catches for 129 yards and a touchdown. He is doubtful with a rib injury. Aaron Jones had 13 carries for 49 yards and a touchdown.  Jamaal Williams has 9 carries for 32 yards. He is probable with a knee injury.

Receiver Davante Adams has 16 catches for 219 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with a concussion after being carted off the field when he was the victim of a scary helmet to helmet hit late against Chicago. Jordy Nelson has 17 catches for 206 yards and 5 touchdowns. Randall Cobb has 19 catches for 189 yards and a touchdown, plus 10 rushing yards.  Geronimo Allison has 9 catches for 146 yards.   Tight end Martellus Bennett has 17 catches for 141 yards.  Tight end Lance Kendricks has 5 catches for 70 and a touchdown. Nine defensive players and five offensive tackles are listed on the injury report.

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Dallas is being outscored  24.2-23.5 this season. Dallas is #26 in points allowed.  The Cowboys average 343 yards per game on offense including 229 passing and 114 rushing yards. On defense, Dallas allows 339 total yards including 232 passing and 108 rushing yards. The Cowboys are  23/59 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are  27/60. Dallas has forced 12 sacks and allowed 6 this season. Dallas is  -1 in turnovers.

Quarterback Dak Prescott has completed 60.8% of his passes for 941 yards with 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He also has 12 carries for 89 rushing yards and a touchdown. He has been sacked six times.

Running back Ezekiel Elliott has 76 carries for 277 yards and two touchdowns, plus 16 catches for 118  yards and a touchdown. He is facing a six game suspension from the NFL. However, a Texas judge granted a temporary injunction and Elliott will continue to play for until the matter is decided in court. He is probable with a rib injury.  Alfred Morris has 6 carries for 77 yards

Receiver Dez Bryant has 16 catches for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Tight end Jason Witten has 19 catches for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns. Terrance Williams has 17 catches for 166 yards. Brice Butler has 6 catches for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns. Cole Beasley has 11 catches for 86 yards.  Nine defensive players, including four cornerbacks are injured or suspended.

Green Bay is 3-0-1 ATS in week five, 4-1 after a win by 14 points or more, 9-3 after a straight up win, 6-2 against NFC teams and on fieldturf, 18-7-1 in October, 9-4 overall, and 34-16-1 after allowing less than 15 points. The road team and underdog are both 4-1 ATS in this series recently. The Packers are 5-2 ATS against the Cowboys recently.

Dallas is 4-1 ATS in October, 7-2-1 after rushing for 150 yards or more, 6-2 after passing for more than 250 yards, 3-7 against NFC teams, 2-5-1 after a straight up loss, 8-20-1 on fieldturf, 3-8 overall, 1-3-1 after allowing 150 rushing yards or more, 2-7 in week five, 1-4 after gaining 350 yards or more, 1-7 against teams with winning records, 0-4 after allowing more than 350 total yards, and 0-5 against teams with winning road records. The last four games in Dallas in this series have gone over the total. The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS at home against the Packers.

Dallas played a a terrible first half against the Cardinals and a terrible second half against the Rams. They need to play a complete game to get back to the form that led them to a 13-3 record last year. The offensive line hasn’t been as dominant this year and needs to improve. Green Bay looked impressive against the Bears but they will as always go as far as Aaron Rodgers will take them I like the Cowboys to win a close high scoring game.

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