NFL Week Five Betting Picks: Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 8, 2017, 4:05 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum – Los Angeles, California
Opening Line: Los Angeles Pick
Current Line: Los Angeles -1 1/2
Opening Total: 46
Current Total: 47 1/2
Opening Money Line: Rams -128 / Seahawks +108
Current Money Line: Rams -125 / Seahawks +105

The Seahawks take on the Rams in a key NFC West battle Sunday in LA.

The Los Angeles Rams are 3-1 and one of the biggest surprises a quarter of the way through the NFL season. The Rams host the 2-2 Seattle Seahawks Sunday and can take control of the NFC West with a win. Depending on what the 2-2 Arizona Cardinals do against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Rams could be two games clear of every other  team in the division with a win against the Seahawks.

Seattle leads the series 22-16 against Los Angeles. The Rams have won three of the last four games in this series. The teams split the series last season with each winning at home. The Rams won in LA 9-3 and the Seahawks won in Seattle 24-3. The teams will meet in Seattle December 17.

Seattle is coached by Pete Carroll. The Seahawks have road losses at the Green Bay Packers 17-9 and at the Tennessee Titans 33-27. Seattle has home wins over the San Francisco 49ers 12-9 and last week over the Indianapolis Colts 46-18. Against Indianapolis, the Seahawks were 12.5 point favorites and the total was 41.5. The Colts  took  a 15-10 lead at halftime, but the Seahawks  scored 28 straight points to rout them.  Seattle is 1-3 ATS and the total is 2-2 this season.

Los Angeles is is led by first year coach Sean McVay. The Rams have a home loss to the Washington Redskins 27-20. LA has a home win over the Indianapolis Colts 46-9, plus road wins over the San Francisco 49ers 41-39 and last week over the Dallas Cowboys 35-30. Los Angeles trailed 17-6 and 24-13 in the first half against Dallas, but would score 19 straight points to take a 32-24 lead in the fourth. LA would hold on for a five point upset win. The Rams were 5 point underdogs against the Cowboys  and the total was 51. Los Angeles is 2-2 ATS and the total is 4-0 this season.

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Seattle is being outscored 24-19 this season. The Seahawks average 362 yards per game on offense including 241 passing and 121 rushing yards.  On defense, the Seahawks are allowing 319 total yards per game including 185 passing and 134 rushing yards. Seattle is #4 in pass defense but #27 in rush defense. The Seahawks are 28/64 on third and fourth conversions and opponents are 21/56. Seattle has forced 10 sacks and allowed 9 this season. The Seahawks are +1 in turnovers and has two defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Russell Wilson has completed 61.7% of his passes for 1,024 yards with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, plus 25 carries for 138 yards. He has been sacked nine times.

Running back Chris Carson had 49 carries for 208 yards, plus 7 catches for 59 yards and a touchdown. He is out for the season after suffering a broken leg last week. Eddie Lacy has 16 carries for 55 yards. C.J. Prosise, Thomas Rawls and J.D. McKissic have combined for 14 carries for 82 yards and a touchdown. Prosise has 6 catches for 87 yards, but is questionable with an ankle injury.

Receiver Doug Baldwin has 23 catches for 247 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a groin injury. Paul Richardson has 11 catches for 173 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tyler Lockett has 13 catches for 169 yards. Tight end Jimmy Graham has 15 catches for 142 yards. He is probable with an ankle injury.  Tight end Luke Wilson has 7 catches for 84 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Thirteen defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

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Los Angeles is outscoring teams  36-26 this season. LA is #1 in scoring and #28 in points allowed. The Rams average 384 yards per game on offense including 270 passing and 114 rushing yards per game. LA is #5 in both total offense and passing. On defense, the Rams allow 368 yards per game including 216 passing and 152 rushing yards. The Rams are #27 in total defense, and #30 against the run. LA is 24/52 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 24/61. The Rams have forced 12 sacks and allowed 4 this season. Los Angeles is +2 in turnovers and has scored 2 defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Jared Goff has completed 66.7% of his passes for 1,072 yards with 7 touchdowns and an interception. He has only been sacked four times.

Running back Todd Gurley has 86 carries for 362 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 20 catches for 234 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tavon Austin has 14 carries for 81 yards.  Malcolm Brown will also get some carries and has a rushing touchdown. Lance Dunbar is out until at least week seven  with a knee injury.

Receiver Sammy Watkins has 14 catches for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with an illness. Robert Woods has 12 catches for 186 yards. Receiver Cooper Kupp has 14 catches for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Gerald Everett has 5 catches for 142 yards. He is questionable with a thigh injury.

Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in week five, 23-6-2 after passing for 250 yards or more, 7-3 after scoring more than 30 points, 3-7 after allowing less than 150 passing yards, 1-4 overall and against teams with winning home records, 1-5 against NFC teams, and after a straight up win by 14 points or more, 1-6 after a straight up win, 0-6 in road games and after allowing less than 250 total yards, 0-5 after failing to cover and on grass, 0-4 after rushing for more than 150 yardsa nd gaining more than 350 total yards. The under is 8-2 in this series recently including 5-2 in LA/St. Louis. The underdog is 10-4 ATS in this series recently.

Los Angeles is 2-5 ATS in week five and after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 3-12-1 overall, 1-6-1 after allowing more than 150 yards, 1-6 after allowing more than 350 yards, 1-7-1 at home and on grass, 1-8 after gaining more than 350 total yards, 1-9-1 against NFC teams and 0-4 against NFC West teams. The home team is 7-1 ATS in this series recently. The Rams are 7-3 ATS against the Seahawks and have covered the last five home games in the series.

This should be a high scoring game between two teams more known for their defense. The Seahawks’ offense has awoken the last two weeks, and the Rams lead the league in scoring. Thirty five years separates the 66 year old Carroll and 31 year old McVay. I think the Rams win a close game at home to move to 4-1.

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