NFL Week Five Betting Picks: Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals

Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals
Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, Ohio
Sunday, October 11, 2015, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Cincinnati -3
Current Line: Cincinnati -3 (-125)
Opening Total: 44
Current Total: 43 1/2
Opening Money Line: Bengals -165 / Seahawks +145
Current Money Line: Bengals -170 / Seahawks +150

The Bengals look to remain undefeated as they host the Seahawks Sunday.
The Bengals look to remain undefeated as they host the Seahawks Sunday.

The 4-0 Cincinnati Bengals host the 2-2 Seattle Seahawks Sunday. The Bengals are one of six undefeated teams left. Cincinnati leads the AFC North Division by 2 games over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Seattle is tied for second in the NFC West with the St. Louis Rams. Both teams trail the 3-1 Arizona Cardinals.

Cincinnati leads the series 10-9 against Seattle. The Bengals won the last mmeting 34-12 in Seattle in 2011. This is only the third trip to Cincinnati for the Seahawks since 1993, and first since 2003.

Seattle is coached by Pete Carroll. The Seahawks have road losses at the Rams 34-31 in overtime and Green Bay Packers 27-17. The Seahawks have won 2 straight home games over the Chicago Bears 26-0 and last Monday against the Detroit Lions 13-10. The Seahawks were 10 point favorites and the total was 43. Neither team scored in the first quarter. Seattle would take a 10-3 lead into halftime. The Seahawks added to the lead in the third with a 52 yard field goal. Detroit scored a defensive touchdown midway through the fourth to pull within 3 points.

After a Seattle punt, Detroit drove from their own 9 to the Seattle 14 with less than 2 minutes to go. Receiver Calvin Johnson appeared to be headed into the end zone for the go ahead score but the Seahawks forced a fumble. Seattle’s K.J. Wright  appeared to bat the ball out of the end zone which is illegal, but no flag was thrown. The Seahawks held on for the much needed win, and the Lions remained the only winless team in the NFL. Seattle had 345 total yards to 256 for Detroit, but the Seahawks had 3 turnovers to 1 for the Lions. Seattle is 1-3 ATS and the total is 1-3 this season.

Cincinnati is coached by Marvin Lewis. The Bengals have road wins at the Oakland Raiders  33-13 and Baltimore Ravens 28-24, along with home wins over the San Diego Chargers 24-19 and last week over the Kansas City Chiefs 36-21. Cincinnati was a 3.5 point favorite against Kansas City and the total was 45. The Bengals would take an early 14-3 lead, but three Kansas City dield goals in the second quarter made it 14-12 at halftime. The Bengals would expand the lead to 29-15 by the end of the third. Cincinnati would never trail in the 15 point win. The Bengals had 445 total yards to 461 for the Chiefs. However, Kansas City could only manage seven field goals for the game. Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS and the total is 3-1 this season.

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Seattle is outscoring teams 22-18 this season. The Seahawks are #5 in points allowed. Seattle is averaging 346 yards per game on offense including 218 passing yards and 128 rushing. The Seahawks are #27 in passing and #8 in rushing. On defense Seattle is allowing 279 total yards including 190 passing and 89 rushing yards. The Seahawks are #7 or better in all three categories. Seattle is 25/61 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 16/48. The Seahawks have forced 18 sacks and allowed 6 this season. Seattle has two special teams touchdowns and a defensive touchdown. The Seahawks are -1 in turnovers.

Quarterback Russell Wilson has completed 71.7% of his passes for 979 yards with 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 24 carries for 137 yards. Running back Marshawn Lynch is out with a hamstring injury for the second straight game. He has 38 carries for 128 yards, along with 9 catches for 61 yards. Thomas Rawls has 35 carries for 157 yards. Fred Jackson will also get some carries. He has 47 rushing yards, but does have 7 catches for 74 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with an ankle injury. The Seahawks activated running back Rod Smith from the practice squad.

Receiver Doug Baldwin has 20 catches for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jermaine Kearse has 16 catches for 236 yards. Tight end Jimmy Graham has 18 catches for 174 yards and 2 touchdowns. Rookie receiver Tyler Lockett has 10 catches for 109 yards. However, he has a kick return and a punt return both for touchdowns. Nine defensive players are listed on the injury report.

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Cincinnati is outscoring teams 30-19 this season. The Bengals are #4 in scoring and #9 in points allowed. Cincinnati averages 422 yards per game on offense including 294 passing and 128 rushing yards. The Bengals are in the top 7 in all three categories. . Cincinnati is allowing 365 yards per game including 279 passing and 86 rushing yards. The Bengals are #6 in rush defense and #26 in pass defense. Cincinnati is 25/51 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 25/61. The Bengals have forced 11 sacks and have allowed two. Cincinnati is +3 in turnovers.

Quarterback Andy Dalton has completed 67.2% of his passes for 1,187 yards with 9 touchdowns and 1 interceptions, and also has 37 rushing yards and a touchdown. Running back Giovani Bernard has 54 carries for 297 yards and a touchdown, along with 12 catches for 75 yards. Jeremy Hill has 50 carries for 163 yards with 5 touchdowns, along with a catch.He is probable with a knee injury.

Receiver A.J. Green has 25 catches for 417 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tight end Tyler Eifert has 16 catches for 222 yards and 3 touchdowns. Marvin Jones has 10 catches for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns. Mohamed Sanu has 9 catches for 161 yards.  Seven defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Seattle is 5-1-1 ATS after allowing less than 15 points, 4-1 in week five, 11-3 against teams with winning home records, 35-15-1 on fieldturf, 17-8 after an ATS loss, 18-39-1 in October, 1-3-1 against teams with winning records, 1-5 overall, and 0-4 after a straight up win. Four of the last five games in this series have gone over the total.

Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS after a win, after a cover, and overall, 6-1 after passing for more than 250 yards, 4-1 on fieldturf, 17-5-1 at home, 9-3 after a straight up win of more than 14 points, 5-2 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 7-3-1 in week 5, 20-9-1 after allowing more than 350 total yards, and 1-5 after scoring more than 30 points. The Bengals have covered 4 of the last 5 games in this series.

The Seahawks have struggled on offense so far this season and have two wins at home over the Lions and Bears who have combined for one win this season. Cincinnati has been firing on all cylinders so far and look like a potential Super Bowl contender. I like the Bengals to win a close game at home.

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