NFL Week 5 Betting Picks: New York Jets at San Diego Chargers

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers
Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, California

Sunday, October 5, 2014, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: San Diego -7 (-105) 
Current Line: San Diego -7 (+110) 
Opening Total: 43 1/2
Current Total: 44
Opening Money Line: Chargers -285 / Jets +235
Current Money Line: Chargers -270 / Jets +230

The Chargers are 7 point favorites at home against the Jets Sunday.
The Chargers are 7 point favorites at home against the Jets Sunday.

The 3-1 San Diego Chargers have emerged as a possible Super Bowl contender early in the 2014 NFL season. The Chargers have won 3 straight games and host the 1-3 New York Jets Sunday. The Jets have lost 3 straight games. Since 2001, New York leads the series 5-3 against San Diego. The Jets have won 2 of the last 3 games in the series, including a 17-14 upset in San Diego in the 2010 playoffs. The Chargers won the last meeting in New Jersey in 2012 27-17.

New York is coached by Rex Ryan. The Jets opened the season with a home win over the Oakland Raiders 19-14. However, New York hasn’t won since with 3 straight losses to NFC North teams. The Jets lost at the Green Bay Packers 31-24 and at home to the Chicago Bears 27-19 and last week against the Detroit Lions 24-17. New York is 0-3-1 ATS and the total is 2-2. The Jets were 2 point favorites against the Lions and the total is 43.5.

San Diego is coached by Mike McCoy. After a season opening loss at the Arizona Cardinals 18-17, San Diego has won three straight games. San Diego beat the defending Super Bowl champs Seattle Seahawks 30-21 at home and last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars 33-14 also in San Diego. The Chargers have a road win at the Buffalo Bills 22-10. San Diego is 4-0 ATS and the total is 2-2 this season. The Chargers were 13 point favorites against the Jaguars and the total was 45.

New York is being outscored 24-20 this season. The Jets are averaging 366 yards per game including 215 passing and the second leading rushing attack in the league with 151 yards per game. On defense, New York is giving up 291 yards per game including 228 passing and 63 rushing yards. The Jets are #3 in total defense and #1 in rush defense. New York is 29/64 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 23/56. The Jets have forced 14 sacks and allowed 9 this season. The Jets are -6 in turnovers. New York has allowed one defensive touchdown this season.

New York quarterback Geno Smith has completed 60.3% of his passes for 922 yards with 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 24 carries for 88 yards and a touchdown. He hasn’t been terrible but inconsistent enough for some Jets fans to call for his benching in favor of Mike Vick. Running back Chris Ivory has 50 carries for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 71 yards. Chris Johnson has 41 carries for 167 yards and a touchdown, plus 8 catches for 40 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Eric Decker has 14 catches for 204 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jeremy Kerley has 16 catches for 144 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Jace Amaro has 11 catches for 125 yards. Seven defensive players are listed as questionable or out for the Jets.

San Diego is outscoring teams 26-16 this season. The Chargers are #11 in scoring and #5 in points allowed. San Diego is averaging 352 yards per game on offense including 282 passing and 71 rushing yards. The Chargers are #5 in passing and #31 in rushing. On defense, San Diego is allowing 326 yards per game including 229 passing and 97 rushing yards. The Chargers are #9 in both total and rush defense. San Diego is 30/62 in third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 24/54. The Chargers have forced 10 sacks and allowed 5 this season. San Diego is +5 in turnovers.

San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers is putting up some early MVP numbers. He has completed 70.1% of his passes for 1,155 yards with 9 touchdowns and an interception. He has had to be spectacular as the running game has been almost non-existent. Running back Ryan Mathews is out indefinitely with a knee injury and Danny Woodhead is out for the season with an ankle injury. Donald Brown has 50 carries for 100 yards, along with 12 catches for 72 yards. Receiver Keenan Allen has 22 catches for 244 yards. Eddie Royal has 17 catches for 236 yards and 4 touchdowns. Tight end Antonio Gates has 17 catches for 215 yards and 3 touchdowns. Malcolm Floyd has 9 catches for 187 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ten defensive players are listed as questionable or out for the Chargers.

New York is 7-3 ATS in October, 4-9-2 on grass, 2-5 after a straight up loss, 1-3-1 against teams with a winning home record, 1-3-2 in road games, 1-4-1 after failing to cover, 1-5-1 after allowing 350 total yards or more, 0-5-1 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, and 0-3-1 overall. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in this series recently. The Jets are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 against the Chargers including 4-1 in San Diego.

San Diego is 6-0 ATS overall, 5-0 after a straight up win,  4-0 after a cover, after gaining more than 350 total yards, against AFC teams and on grass, 6-1 after rushing for less than 90 yards 4-1 at home and against teams with losing road records, 2-5 after a straight up win, 2-6 in October, 1-4 in Week 5, and 1-5-1 after scoring more than 30 points. Four of the last five games in this series have gone over the total.

Every Jets game has been decided by one possession. However, with a -6 turnover ratio it isn’t surprising they have lost 3 of those games. Smith needs to make better decisions when he throws the ball. San Diego is just a better team and should win this game comfortably.

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