NFL Week 4 Picks: New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 9/29/13, 8:30 PM EST
Opening Point Spread:  Atlanta -1.5
Current Betting Line:  Atlanta -2.5
Opening Total:  48
Current Total:  50
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

Falcons Saints NFL Game Preview
The Atlanta Falcons are 34-7 at home since 2008

New England improved to 3-0 for the first time since 2007 and for the eighth time in team history after picking up a 23-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday.  The Patriots have allowed a total of 34 points through three games this season, but the defense has allowed only 27 points this season, as seven came on a fumble return.  The franchise has won its last three games in this series during the regular season, including a 26-10 victory as 4.5-point home favorites on Sept. 27, 2009.    New England is 2-0 ATS as underdogs since 2011, with both of those games going OVER the total.

The Patriots have played two away games in a row 22 times since 2000—earning a 29-15 record in those contests.  Under Bill Belichick, New England has won back-to-back games on the road 10 times and have lost consecutive road games just once.  Defensively, the team has been forcing opponents to make numerous mistakes this season, while it has tallied at least one turnover in 30 straight games dating back to 2011.  It’s also important to point out that the franchise hasn’t allowed a point in the fourth quarter during the 2013 campaign.

Atlanta has compiled a 34-7 record at the Georgia Dome since 2008, which is important to consider when making your pro football picks in Week 4, as it attempts to bounce back from a 27-23 setback to the Miami Dolphins as three-point road underdogs Sunday.  The Falcons have scored 328 points off turnovers since 2010, which is the second-highest total in the league over that span—trailing only the Patriots in that category.  Atlanta is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS as home favorites of three points or less over the last two-plus seasons, with the UNDER going 4-1 in that situation.

The Falcons have compiled a 16-5 record against AFC opponents under head coach Mike Smith, while they’ve won eight of 12 night games during the regular season during his time on the sidelines.  Atlanta possesses one of the more dynamic offenses in the league, as the unit is piloted by quarterback Matt Ryan, but it’s dealing with numerous injuries early on this season.  Running back Steven Jackson is out until mid-October with a hamstring injury, but wide receiver Roddy White expects to play in this affair.

Sports bettors will likely back the Falcons due to their 23-9 ATS mark in their last 32 games following a SU loss.

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