Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, December 23, 2012, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Opening Line: Washington -6 1/2
Current Line: Washington -7 (+105)
Opening Total: 44 1/2
Current Total: 45 1/2
Opening Money Line: Redskins -290 / Eagles +240
Current Money Line: Redskins -290 / Eagles +240

 The Washington Redskins are 8-6 and tied with the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants for the NFC East lead right now with two games to play. The Redskins and Cowboys each control their own destiny to win the division if they win their remaining two games regardless of what the Giants do. Dallas travels to Washington next week to close out the regular season.

Washington first must beat the 4-10 Philadelphia Eagles Sunday on the road. The Eagles can play the role of spoiler as they host the Redskins and play at the Giants next week. Even though they are long eliminated from the playoff picture, the Eagles would like nothing more than to eliminate either team from the playoffs. Philadelphia could also play hard if want to try and save long time coach Andy Reid’s job who will likely be fired at the end of the season.

Washington has won 5 straight games under coach Mike Shanahan. Shanahan was talking about evaluating talent for next season when the Redskins had lost 3 straight games to fall to 3-6. Washington won at Cleveland last week 38-21 despite sensational rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III missing the game due to a sprained knee. Griffin is listed as probable against the Eagles. Shanahan said he will start unless he suffers a setback in practice. If he can’t go, another rookie quarterback  Kirk Cousins will start. Cousins threw for 329 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception in the Cleveland game. The Redskins are 9-5 ATS and the total is 8-6 this season.

After a 3-1 start, Philadelphia has lost 9 of their last 10 games. They were trounced last week at home against Cincinnati 34-13. The Eagles are 3-10-1 ATS and the total is 7-7 this season.

Philadelphia leads the series 15-8 against Washington since 2001. The Eagles had won 3 straight against the Redskins before the Redskins won at home 31-6 last month. That game started the Redskins on their current 5 game winning streak.

Washington is averaging 389.6 yards per game on offense, including 225 passing and 164.6 rushing yards. The Redskins lead the league in rushing. Washington is outscoring teams 27-25 this season. Washington is in the top 5 in the league in total and scoring offense.  The Redskins are +12 in turnovers this season. Washington has forced 25 sacks and allowed 31 this season. The Redskins are 70/185 on third and fourth down conversions. On defense, Washington is allowing 381.1 yards per game on defense including 285.3 passing yards and 95.9 rushing yards. The Redskins are #29 in total defense and #30 against the pass, but #6 in the league against the run. The Redskins have 6 defensive touchdowns this season.

Griffin has completed 66.4% of his passes for 2,902 yards with 18 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He became the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to throw 4 or more touchdown passes in two consecutive games against the Eagles and Cowboys last month. Griffin already broke Cam Newton’s rookie record for rushing yards in a season. RG3 has 112 carries, 748 yards and 6 touchdowns. Griffin has been sacked 28 times this season. Cousins has completed 33 of 48 passes for 466 yards with 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

Running back Alfred Morris has 280 carries, 1,322 yards and 9 touchdowns, along with a handful of catches.  Besides Morris and Griffin, no other Washington back has more than 19 carries this season. Receiver Santana Moss has 37 catches, 525 yards and 7 touchdowns. Leonard Hankerson has 36 catches, 521 yards and 3  touchdowns. Pierre Garcon has 34 catches, 498 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Josh Morgan has 46 catches for 489 yards and a touchdown.  Tight end Fred Davis is out for the season. Logan Paulsen and Aldrick Robinson will also get some catches. Robinson has 3 touchdown catches. The Redskin defense is also banged up with 11 players listed on the injury report. Five offensive linemen are also listed.

The Eagles are averaging 352.6 yards per game on offense including 233.1 passing yards and 119.6 rushing yards. Philadelphia is being outscored 27-18 this season. The Eagles are -22 in turnovers. Philadelphia has forced 28 sacks and has allowed 42 this season. The Eagles are 83/209 on third and fourth down conversions. On defense, Philadelphia is allowing 341.5 yards per game including 219.5 passing yards and 122 rushing yards. The Eagles have a punt return for a touchdown but have allowed 8 defensive / special teams touchdowns.

After suffering a concussion several weeks ago against the Cowboys, Michael Vick hasn’t played since. Rookie Nick Foles has taken over at quarterback. Foles has completed 59.4% of his passes for 1,354 yards with 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He has been sacked 15 times this season but does have a rushing touchdown. It doesn’t really matter who starts at quarterback because the offensive line is missing three starters and can’t protect Vick or Foles.

Running back LeSean McCoy has also missed the last four games with a concussion and is probable for the Tampa Bay game. McCoy has 177 carries, 750 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 40 catches, 235 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Bryce Brown has 130 carries, 528 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 12 catches. He has been the feature back without McCoy. Brown rushed for 347 yards and 4 touchdowns in consecutive games against Carolina and Dallas but has been held to 40 yards total in the last 2 games. Vick had 57 carries, but no other Eagle has more than 9 carries.

Leading receiver DeSean Jackson is out for the season with broken ribs. He had 45 catches, 700 yards and 9 touchdowns. Tight end Brent Celek has 51 catches, 602 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a concussion after missing the last two games.  Jeremy Maclin has 57 catches, 719 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is probable with a back injury. Jason Avant has 41 catches, 539 yards and no touchdowns. Damaris Johnson,  Riley Cooper, and Clay Harbour will also get some catches. Johnson has 4 touchdown catches and a punt return for a touchdown. Harbour is out for the season with a back injury.

Washington is 5-0 ATS after scoring more than 30 points, after a straight up win,  and overall, 4-0 after a cover, against NFC East teams, and on grass, 5-1 in December, and against NFC teams, 4-1 in road games, 5-2 after accumulating more than 350 yards, and 11-26-3 against teams with losing records. The road team is 8-3-1 ATS in this series recently. The favorite has covered the last 4 games. The Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Philadelphia.

Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in December, 6-2-1 against NFC East teams, 7-20-1 at home, 2-6-1 after a straight up win, 2-7 after a straight up loss of 14 points or more, and overall, 2-7-1 against NFC teams, 1-6 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, and on grass, 1-7-1 after failing to cover, 0-4 after a double digit home loss, 0-4-1 against teams with winning records, and at home against teams with winning road records, 0-5 after rushing for less than 90 yards, and 0-3-1 after scoring less than 15 points. The under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 in Philadelphia in this series and 3-1-1 overall.

I think Philadelphia will play hard, but the Redskins need this game way too much to overlook a terrible Eagles team. Keep an eye on Griffin, because if is a little gimpy from the injury and can’t do the things that make him RG3 then Shanahan could go to Cousins. Philadelphia keeps it close for a while but the Redskins running game wears them down in the fourth quarter.

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