NFL Week 14 Betting Picks: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
EverBank Field – Jacksonville, Florida
Sunday, December 13, 2015, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Jacksonville pick
Current Line: Jacksonville -1 (-120)
Opening Total: 46
Current Total: 46
Opening Money Line: Jaguars -110 / Colts -110
Current Money Line: Jaguars -125 / Colts +105

Jacksonville is a one point favorite against Indianapolis Sunday.
Jacksonville is a one point favorite against Indianapolis Sunday.

The 6-6 Indianapolis Colts are tied with the Houston Colts for first in the AFC South. The two teams meet next week in Indianapolis. First things first though, as both teams have tough games this week. Indianapolis travels to the 4-8 Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday, while Houston hosts the 10-2 New England Patriots Sunday night.

Indianapolis leads the series 21-8 against Jacksonville. The Colts have won six straight games in the series including 16-13 in overtime in Indianapolis October 4. The Jaguars had 431 total yards in that game to 326 for the Colts. Indianapolis also had the only two turnovers of the game. It was the only game in the current Colts’ current winning streak against the Jaguars decided by less than 17 points.

Indianapolis is coached by Chuck Pagano. The Colts have road wins over on the Tennessee Titans 35-33,  Texans 27-20 and Atlanta Falcons 24-21, plus home wins over the Jaguars 16-13, Denver Broncos 24-21 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-12. Indianapolis has  road losses at the Buffalo Bills 27-14, Carolina Panthers 29-26 and Pittsburgh Steelers 45-10 last week, plus home losses to the New York Jets 20-7, New England Patriots 34-27 and New Orleans Saints 27-21. The loss to the Steelers snapped a 3 game winning streak for the Colts.

The Colts were 10 point underdogs at the Steelers and the total was 50.5. The Colts took a 10-6 lead midway through the second quarter, but the Steelers would score 39 unanswered points. Pittsburgh had 522 total yards to just 240 for Indianapolis. The teams combined for 5 turnovers. The Colts are 6-6 ATS and the total is 6-6 this season.

Jacksonville is coached by Gus Bradley. The Jaguars have home wins over the Miami Dolphins 23-20 and Tennessee Titans 19-13, a road win over the Baltimore Ravens 22-20, and Buffalo Bills 34-31 in London. Jacksonville has home losses to the Carolina Panthers 20-9, Texans 31-20, and San Diego Chargers 31-25, along with road losses at the New England Patriots 51-17, Colts 16-13 in overtime, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38-31, New York Jets 28-23, and Titans 42-39 last week.

Jacksonville was a 3 point underdog against Tennessee and the total was 43.5. Tennessee led 21-12 at halftime. The Jaguars pulled to within 21-19 by the end of the third. The under looked pretty good, but the teams combined for 41 points in a wild fourth quarter. The Titans took a 42-32 lead midway through the fourth on a 3 yard fumble return for a touchdown. Jacksonville scored on their next possession to pull within 42-39. Jacksonville took over with 2:50 left but went 4 and out. Tennessee ran out the clock for the win. Jacksonville is 6-5-1 ATS and the total is 8-4 this season.

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Indianapolis is being outscored 25-22 this season. The Colts are #26 in points allowed and #20 in scoring. Indianapolis averages 336 yards per game on offense including 247 passing and 89 rushing yards per game. The Colts are #27 in rushing and #24 in total offense. On defense, the Colts allow 399 yards per game including 280 passing and 119 rushing yards. Indianapolis is #24 or worse in all three categories. The Colts are 79/188 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 78/182. Indianapolis has forced 19 sacks and allowed 28 this season. The Colts are -6 in turnovers this season, but the Colts have scored three defensive touchdowns.

Andrew Luck has thrown for 1,881 yards with 15 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and also has 33 carries for 192 yards. He is out until late December with a kidney laceration, and has also battled shoulder and rib injuries. Forty year old Matt Hasselbeck is the back-up and has started six games.  Hasselbeck has thrown for 1,192 yards with 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He left the Steelers game with a neck injury but is listed as probable. Charlie Whitehurst is the back-up, and threw for 51 yards lat week, completing 4/8 passes. He was sacked three times though.

Running back Frank Gore has 194 carries for 702 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 30 catches for 243 yards and a touchdown. Josh Robinson could also get some carries. Ahmad Bradshaw is out for the season with a broken wrist. Another running back Tyler Varga is on injured reserve with a concussion.

Receiver T.Y. Hilton has 54 catches for 855 yards and 5 touchdowns. Donte Moncrief has 53 catches for 617 yards and 5 touchdowns. Tight end Coby Fleener has 43 catches for 372 yards and 2 touchdowns. Andre Johnson has 28 catches for 367 yards and 3 touchdowns. Phillip Dorsett has 11 catches for 167 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with an ankle injury. Tight end Dwayne Allen and receiver Griff Whalen will also get some targets. Whalen is probable with a hamstring injury.  Eleven defensive players and four offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

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Jacksonville is being outscored 28-23 this season. The Jaguars are #30 in points allowed. Jacksonville averages 350 total yards per game on offense including 256 passing and 95 rushing yards. The Jags are #24 in rushing. On defense, Jacksonville allows 368 total yards including 265 passing yards and 103 rushing yards. The Jaguars are #23 in total defense and #26 against the pass. Jacksonville is 69/178 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 82/175. Jacksonville has forced 29 sacks and allowed 36 this season. The Jaguars are -5 in turnovers. Jacksonville has allowed 5 defensive touchdowns and has 2 of their own.

Quarterback Blake Bortles has completed 57.7% of his passes for 3,274 yards with 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and has rushed for 244 yards on 39 carries.

Running back T.J. Yeldon has 171 carries for 678 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 35 catches for 278 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a groin injury. Denard Robinson has 28 carries for 121 yards, along with 7 catches for 56 yards. Three running backs Bernard Pierce, Toby Gerhardtand Corey grant are all on injured reserve.

Receiver Allen Robinson has 65 catches for 1,080 yards and 11 touchdowns. Allen Hurns has 48 catches for 758 yards and 7 touchdowns. He is probable with a concussion. Bryan Walters has 32 catches for 368 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a back injury. Tight end Julius Thomas has 31 catches for 298 yards and 4 touchdowns. Marcedes Lewis, Clay Harbor and Rashad Greene will also get some catches. Greene is probable with a shoulder injury. Nine defensive players are on the injury report.

Indianapolis is 7-1 ATS against teams with losing home records, 5-1 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards and more than 250 passing yards, 4-1 after a straight up loss of more than 14 points, and overall, 20-6 after a straight up loss, and against teams with losing records, 12-4 after rushing for less than 90 yards, 13-5 after allowing more than 30 points, 18-7-1 after failing to cover, and against AFC South teams, 20-8-1 in December, 13-6 on grass, and 1-4 after allowing more than 350 total yards. The road team is 5-2 ATS in this series recently. The Colts are 5-1 ATS overall against the Jaguars and 6-2 in Jacksonville.

Jacksonville is 3-0-1 ATS in December, 4-0-1 after allowing 250 passing yards or more, 5-1-1 after failing to cover, 5-1 after rushing for 90 yards or less, 4-1-1 overall, against AFC teams and AFC South teams, 7-2-1 after a straight up loss, 3-1-1 after allowing 30 points or more, 7-3 after gaining more than 350 yards, 9-20-1 at home, 15-34-2 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 3-7-1 after passing for more than 250 yards, and 3-9-1 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards. The under is 8-1 in this series recently. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in this series recently.

The Jaguars are showing signs of looking like an actual NFL franchise after years of being a joke. Still, this team has a long way to go. Both teams are really banged up especially on defense. The Colts have won 16 straight games against AFC South teams, and I think that trend continues in a close low scoring game.

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