NFL Week #12 Betting Preview: Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles

Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Sunday, November 23, 2014, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Network
Opening Line: Philadelphia -11
Current Line: Philadelphia -11
Opening Total: 48 1/2
Current Total: 48 1/2
Opening Money Line: Eagles -600 / Titans +460
Current Money Line: Eagles -700 / Titans +525

The Eagles look to remain in first in the NFC East as they take on the Tennessee Titans Sunday in Philadelphia.
The Eagles look to remain in first in the NFC East as they take on the Tennessee Titans Sunday in Philadelphia.

The 7-3 Philadelphia Eagles are tied with the Dallas Cowboys for first in the NFC East. The two teams play each other on Thanksgiving in Dallas. Before that though the Eagles host the 2-8 Tennessee Titans Sunday. Philadelphia can’t afford to look past Tennessee as the Titans can be very dangerous despite their record.

Tennessee has won all three meetings against Philadelphia since 2002 including a 37-19 win in Nashville in 2010 in the last meeting.

Tennessee is coached by Ken Whisenhunt. The Titans have a road win at the Kansas City Chiefs 26-10 and home win over the Jacksonville Jaguars 19-17. Tennessee has lost 4 straight games. The Titans have home losses to the Dallas Cowboys 26-10, Cleveland Browns 29-28, Texans 30-16 and last Monday against the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-24, along with road losses to the Cincinnati Bengals 33-7, Indianapolis Colts 41-17, Washington Redskins 19-17 and  the Baltimore Ravens 21-7.  Tennessee is 3-6-1 ATS and the total is 4-6 this season. The Titans were 7 point underdogs against the Steelers and the total was 46.5.

Philadelphia is coached by Chip Kelly. The Eagles have road losses at the San Francisco 49ers 26-21, Arizona Cardinals 24-20 and last week against the Green Bay Packers 53-20. Philadelphia has home wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars 34-17, Washington Redskins 37-34, St. Louis Rams 34-28, New York Giants 27-0 and Carolina Panthers 45-21, plus road wins at the Indianapolis Colts 30-27 and Houston Texans 31-21. The Eagles are 6-4 ATS and the total is 7-3 this season. Philadelphia was a 4.5 point underdog at Green Bay and the total was 55.

Tennessee is being outscored 25-17 this season. The Titans are #30 in scoring.  Tennessee is averaging 309 yards per game on offense including 217 passing and 93 rushing yards. The Titans are #25 or worse in all three categories, including #31 in total offense. On defense, Tennessee is allowing 370 yards per game including 227 passing and 144 rushing yards per game. The Titans are #9 in pass defense but #31 in rush defense. Tennessee is 38/122 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 55/137. The Titans have 29 sacks and have allowed 25 this season. Tennessee is -2 in turnovers. The Titans have allowed one defensive touchdown.

Tennessee has used 3 quarterbacks this season. Jake Locker started the first four games of the season but was benched due to both injury and ineffectiveness. He was replaced by Charlie Whitehurst who played in four games before being benched himself in favor of rookie Zach Mettenberger who has started the last 3 games. Mettenberger will be the starter for the foreseeable future barring injury. Locker threw for 764 yards with 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 18 carries for 107 rushing yards and a touchdown. Whitehurst threw for 764 yards with 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, plus 50 rushing yards on 11 carries. Mettenberger has thrown for 758 yards with 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.

Running back Bishop Sankey has 102 carries for 395 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 12 catches for 90 yards. Shonn Greene has 52 carries for 205 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Delanie Walker has 38 catches for 512 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is probable with a concussion after missing the game against the Steelers Monday. Receiver Kendall Wright has 43 catches for 474 yards and 4 touchdowns. Justin Hunter has 23 catches for 416 yards and 2 touchdowns. Eight defensive players are questionable or are out for the year.

Philadelphia is outscoring teams 30-25 this season. The Eagles are #4 in scoring. Philadelphia is averaging 407 yards per game on offense including 293 passing and 114 rushing yards. The Eagles are #4 in total offense and passing. On defense, Philadelphia is allowing 378 yards per game including 263 passing and 115 rushing yards. The Eagles are #20 or worse in all three categories. Philadelphia is 68/159 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 63/160. The Eagles have forced 33 sacks and allowed 15 this season. The Eagles have 9 defensive/special teams touchdowns and have allowed 4 this season. Philadelphia is -9 in turnovers.

Philadelphia quarterback Nick Foles broke his collarbone in the win over the Texans three weeks ago. He is out until at least mid-December. Mark Sanchez will be the starter until Foles returns.  Foles threw for 2,163 yards with 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and rushed for 68 yards. Sanchez has thrown for 880 yards with 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.

Running back LeSean McCoy has 196 carries for 729 yards with 2 touchdowns, along with 22 catches for 110 yards. Darren Sproles has 38 carries for 257 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 23 catches for 280 yards. Sproles even has 2 punt returns for touchdowns. Chris Polk has a rushing touchdown and a kick return for a touchdown. Receiver Jeremy Maclin has 57 catches for 921 yards and 9 touchdowns. Jordan Matthews has 44 catches for 558 yards and 6 touchdowns.  Tight end Zach Ertz has 30 catches for 430 yards and two touchdowns. Riley Cooper has 36 catches for 376 yards and a touchdown. Four defensive players are out for the season for the Eagles.

Tennessee is 16-34-2 ATS after passing for more than 250 yards, 16-35-1 against teams with winning records, 2-5 in week 12 and after allowing more than 350 total yards, 2-5-1 in road games, 4-10-2 on grass, 8-21-1 after a cover, 3-10-2 overall, 1-5-1 after a straight up win, 1-5 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 1-8 when playing on Sunday after a Monday night game, and 0-4 against teams with winning home records.

Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS after a straight up loss, after gaining more than 350 total yards and after a straight up loss by more than 14 points, 5-1 in November, 4-1 at home, 6-2 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 5-2 after failing to cover, and against teams with losing records, 3-8 against teams with losing road records, 3-12-1 after allowing more than 350 total yards and 0-5 in week 12.

Had the Eagles not been completely destroyed by the Packers last week, I would say this game against Tennessee had trap game potential. I don’t think the Eagles want to go into the game Thursday against the Cowboys having lost 2 straight games. The Titans gave up 200 rushing yards to the Steelers last week and Pittsburgh doesn’t have a strong running game. Shady McCoy and the eagles should have a field day against the porous run defense. I like the Eagles to win convincingly in a high scoring game.

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