NFL Week 12 Betting Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks

Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks
Saturday, November 29, 2015, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
CenturyLink Field – Seattle, Washington
Opening Line: Seattle -4 (-128)
Current Line: Seattle -3 (-120)
Opening Total: 44
Current Total: 45 1/2
Opening Money Line: Seahawks -185 / Steelers +165
Current Money Line: Seahawks -170 / Steelers +150

Seattle hosts Pittsburgh in a battle of playoff contenders.
Seattle hosts Pittsburgh in a battle of playoff contenders.

The 5-5 Seattle Seahawks host the 6-4 Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday in a game with playoff implications for both teams. Seattle is in second place in the NFC West behind the 8-2 Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks are also only a game behind the Atlanta Falcons for the last Wild card spot in the NFC playoffs. Pittsburgh is in second place behind the 8-2 Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North. Pittsburgh would currently make the playoffs as the #5 seed.

Pittsburgh leads the series 9-8 against Seattle. The Steelers have won three straight games in the series including 21-10 in Super Bowl XL in Detroit in 2006. Pittsburgh has outscored Seattle by a combined  45-0 in the last two meetings both in Pittsburgh in 2007 and 2011. The Steelers haven’t played in Seattle since 2003.

Pittsburgh is coached by Mike Tomlin. The Steelers have home wins over the San Francisco 49ers 43-18, Arizona Cardinals 25-13, Oakland Raiders 38-35 and Cleveland Browns 30-9 two weeks ago, along with road wins at the St. Louis Rams 12-6 and San Diego Chargers 24-20. Pittsburgh has road losses at the New England Patriots 28-21 and Kansas City Chiefs 23-13, along with home losses to the Baltimore Ravens 23-20 in overtime and Cincinnati Bengals 16-10. Pittsburgh was off last week.

The Steelers were 7 point favorites against the Browns and the total was 43.5. The two teams exchanged field goals in the first quarter, but the Steelers would score 21 straight points to take a 24-3 lead into the fourth. Cleveland pulled to within 24-9 in the fourth, but Pittsburgh added another touchdown on a 56 yard touchdown pass from Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown. Pittsburgh had 459 total yards and Cleveland had 342 total yards. The teams combined for 5 turnovers. Pittsburgh is 6-3-1 ATS and the total is 2-8 this season.

Seattle is coached by Pete Carroll. The Seahawks have home wins over the Chicago Bears 26-0, Detroit Lions 13-10 and San Francisco 49ers 29-13 last week, plus road wins over the 49ers 20-3 and Dallas Cowboys 13-12. Seattle has road losses at the Rams 34-31 in overtime, Green Bay Packers 27-17 and Bengals 27-24 in overtime, along with  home losses to the Carolina Panthers 27-23 and Cardinals 39-32.

Seattle was a 14 point favorite against San Francisco and the total was 40. Seattle scored the first 20 points of the game and never looked back. San Francisco never got closer than 10 points after that. The Seahawks would cruise to the 16 point win. Seattle had over 500 total yards, including 209 rushing yards from running back Thomas Rawls. Seattle is 3-6-1 ATS and the total is 5-5 this season.

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Pittsburgh is outscoring teams 24-19 this season. The Steelers are #6 in points allowed. Pittsburgh is averaging 385 yards per game on offense including 259 passing and 126 rushing yards. The Steelers are #6 in both total and rushing offense. On defense, Pittsburgh is allowing 371 total yards per game including 278 passing and 93 rushing yards. Pittsburgh is #6 in rush defense but #28 against the pass.  The Steelers are  47/133 on third and fourth down conversions. Opponents are 60/154. Pittsburgh has forced 28 sacks and allowed 23 this year. The Steelers are +5 in turnovers, with a defensive touchdown.

Pittsburgh has used three quarterbacks this season. Ben Roethlisberger had completed 66.8% of his passes for 1,887 yards with 10 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He missed several games with a foot injury. Michael started a few games but was benched in favor of Landry Jones. Vick has thrown for 371 yards with 2 interceptions, and also has 99 rushing yards. Jones has passed for 479 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He is doubtful with a foot injury and Roethlisberger will start.

Running back DeAngelo Williams has 107 carries for 534 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 13 catches for 137 yards. Le’Veon Bell has 113 carries for 556 yards and 3 touchdowns along with 24 catches for 136 yards. He is out for the season with a torn ACL. Besides Vick, no other running back has more than 4 carries.

Receiver Antonio Brown has 79 catches for 1,141 yards and 5 touchdowns. Martavis Bryant has 22 catches for 440 yards and 5 touchdowns. Tight end Heath Miller has 34 catches for 345 yards and a touchdown. Darrius Heyward-Bey has 17 catches for 209 yards and 2 touchdowns. Markus Wheaton has 16 catches for 273 yards and a touchdown. Six defensive players are on the injury report.

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Seattle is outscoring teams 23-19 this season. The Seahawks are #7 in points allowed. Seattle is averaging 368 yards per game on offense including 219 passing yards and 149 rushing. The Seahawks are #26 in passing, #1 in rushing and #9 in total offense. On defense, Seattle is allowing 304 total yards including 207 passing and 96 rushing yards. Seattle is #2 in both total and pass defense. The Seahawks are 55/137 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 42/130. The Seahawks have forced 25 sacks and allowed 35 this season. Seattle has two special teams touchdowns and three defensive touchdowns, and have allowed one of each as well. The Seahawks are +1 in turnovers.

Quarterback Russell Wilson has completed 67.5% of his passes for 2,378 yards with 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 73 carries for 385 rushing yards.

Running back Marshawn Lynch has 111 carries for 417 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 13 catches for 80 yards. He missed three games with a hamstring injury and is now out indefinitely with a hernia. Rawls has 101 carries for 604 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus a receiving touchdown. The rookie undrafted free agent is probable with a knee injury Fred Jackson will also get some carries. He has 65 rushing yards, but does have 19 catches for 163 yards and a touchdown.

Tight end Jimmy Graham has 44 catches for 530 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Doug Baldwin has 44 catches for 539 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is probable with an ankle injury. Jermaine Kearse has 25 catches for 382 yards and a touchdown.  Rookie receiver Tyler Lockett has 25 catches for 308 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also has a kick return and a punt return both for touchdowns. Receiver Paul Richardson is out with a knee injury and has only one catch this season. Four defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS after passing for more than 250 yards, 5-1 in road games, 4-1-1 after rushing for less than 90 yards, 6-2-1 after a win and after a cover, 5-2-1 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 10-4-1 overall, 20-8 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 5-2 after a straight up win by more than 14 points, 4-11 in week 12, 1-3-1 after allowing less than 15 points, and 1-5 in November. The last 4 games in this series have gone under the total.

Seattle is 12-2-2 ATS after passing for 250 yards or more, 3-1-1 after gaining more than 350 total yards, 35-17-2 on fieldturf, 2-5 at home, 3-8-1 overall, 0-6-1 after a straight up win, 0-5 after rushing for 150 yards or more, 0-5-1 against teams with winning records, 0-4 after a cover, 0-3-1 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, against teams with winning road records, and after allowing less than 15 points. The home team and favorite have covered the last 4 games in this series.

Both of teams were considered Super Bowl contenders, but injuries have made it difficult for them this season. Both have the talent to make a deep playoff run. However, first they have to get in to the tournament. Seattle used to be almost unbeatable at home but they have already lost twice to the Panthers and Cardinals. Still, I think the Seahawks win this game in a close low scoring game.

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