NFL Week 11 Betting Picks: Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars

Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars
EverBank Field – Jacksonville, Florida

Sunday, November 17, 2013, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Arizona -6 1/2 (-108)
Current Line: Arizona -8
Opening Total: 40
Current Total: 40
Opening Money Line: Cardinals -330 / Jaguars +270
Current Money Line: Cardinals -370 / Jaguars +300 

Cardinals Jags NFL Preview
The Cardinals are 8 point road favorites at the Jaguars Sunday.

The 5-4 Arizona Cardinals are third in the NFC West, but the Cardianls are tied with the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. All three teams are a game behind the 6-3 Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers who currently hold the two wild card spots in the NFC. Arizona travels to the 1-8 Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday. The Jaguars won their first game of the season last week at the Tennessee Titans 29-27.  The two teams have only played twice since 2001, with each winning on the road. The Cardinals won the last meeting in 2009 in Jacksonville 31-17.

Arizona is coached by Bruce Arians. The Cardinals have road losses at the St. Louis Rams 27-24, the New Orleans Saints 31-7, and the San Francisco 49ers 32-20, along with a home loss to the Seattle Seahawks 34-22. Arizona has home wins over the Detroit Lions 25-21, the Carolina Panthers 22-6, the Atlanta Flacons 27-13, and last week against the Houston Texans 27-24 along with a road win at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13-10. Arizona is 5-4 ATS and the total is 4-5 this season. The Cardinals were 3.5 point favorites at home to the Texans and the total was 41.5.

Arizona scored on a fumble return for a touchdown 14 seconds into the game against Houston. The Texans would tie it up at 7 by the end of the first quarter, and Houston would take a 17-14 lead into halftime. The Cardinals kicked two field goals in the third quarter to take a 20-17 lead. Arizona would expand the lead to 27-17 with 6:42 left in the fourth. Houston scored with 4;34 left to make it 27-24 after an Arizona fumble at their own 5. Houston kicked off deep in stead of trying the onside kick. The Texans got the ball back with 2:06 left at their own 17 yard line with no timeouts. Houston couldn’t get past their 35 yard line and turned the ball over on downs. The Cardinals ran out the clock to preserve the win. It was the 7th straight loss for Houston. Arizona had 332 total yards including  235 passing yards. The  Texans had 235 total yards. The teams combined for 12 penalties for 82 yards. The Cardinals had three turnovers and the Texans had one.

Arizona is being outscored 22-21 this season. Arizona is #22 in scoring and #10 in points allowed.  The Cardinals are averaging 316.4 yards per game including 222.9 passing and 93.6 rushing yards. Arizona is 19th or worse in all offensive categories. On defense, the Cardinals are allowing 330.6 total yards per game including 243.7 passing and 86.9 rushing yards. Arizona is #3 in rush defense. The Cardinals are -1 in turnovers. Arizona is 35/111 on third and fourth down conversions. Cardinal opponents are 54/135 on third and fourth down conversions. Arizona has forced 26 sacks and allowed 24 this season. The Cardinals are averaging 28:32 on time of possession. Arizona has two defensive touchdown and has allowed one. The Cardinals average 43 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 62.

Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer has completed 61.4% of his passes for 2,154 yards with 12 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He has been sacked 24 times this season. Running back Rashard Mendenhall has 105 carries, 323 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 75 yards. He missed some time with a toe injury and was supplanted as the feature back by rookie Andre Ellington. Andre Ellington has 54 carries for 388 yards and 2 touchdown, along with 24 catches, 216 yards and a touchdown. Alfonso Smith has 18 carries, 54 yards and a touchdown, plus 9 catches for 62 yards. He is probable with a hamstring injury after missing the last two games.

Receiver Larry Fitzgerald has 39 catches, 493 yards and 5 touchdowns. Michael Floyd has 36 catches for 464 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is questionable with a shoulder injury. Andre Roberts has 25 catches for 263 yards and a touchdown. Arizona has 12 players listed on the injury report including 6 linebackers and 2 offensive linemen.

The Jaguars are coached by Gus Bradley in his first year. Jacksonville had lost all eight games by double digits before last week’s upset over the Titans 29-27. The Jaguars have home losses to the Kansas City Chiefs 28-2, the Indianapolis Colts 37-3, the San Francisco 49ers 42-10 in London ( technically a  Jags’ home game), and the San Diego Chargers 24-6 along with road losses at the Oakland Raiders 19-9, the Seattle Seahawks 45-17, the St. Louis Rams 34-20  and the Denver Broncos 35-19. The Jaguars are 2-7 ATS and the total is 5-4 this season. Jacksonville was an 11.5 point underdog at the Titans last week and the total was 42.

Jacksonville Jumped out to a 13-0 lead in the first half against Tennessee last week in Nashville. The Titans would get on the board 41 seconds before halftime to make it 13-7. The Jaguars expanded the lead to 20-10 by the end of the third. The Titans kicked a field goal early in the fourth to pull within 20-13. After a Jacksonville punt pinned the Titans deep in their own territory, the Titans were called for offensive holding in the end zone which resulted in a safety for the Jaguars. It made the score 22-13.

That 9 point margin would prove to be important. After Tennessee scored to pull within 22-10, the Titans forced a Jacksonville punt. The Jaguars sacked Tennessee QB Ryan Fitzpatrick at the Titan’s 21, forced a fumble and returned it for a touchdown to make it 29-20. Tennessee would score another touchdown to make it 29-27 with 40 seconds left but didn’t recover the onside kick. Jacksonville  took a knee and ran out the clock to secure their first win of the season.

Jacksonville had 214 total yards with 13 first downs, including 54 rushing yards. Tennessee had 362 total yards including 279 passing yards. The Titans had four turnovers and the Jaguars had two.

The Jaguars are being outscored 32-13 this season. Jacksonville is last in both scoring and in points allowed. The Jaguars are averaging a league worst 278.4 yards per game including the #22 passing game at 213.4 yards and are second to last in rushing at 65 yards per game. The defense isn’t much better. Jacksonville is allowing 388.9 yards per game including 235.9 passing and 153 rushing yards. The Jaguars are #28 in total defense and last against the run. The pass defense is #13 in the league. Jacksonville is -5 in turnovers. The Jaguars are 42/141 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 60/126. Jacksonville has allowed 31 quarterback sacks this season and forced 12. The Jags have allowed 4 defensive touchdowns this season and has 2 of their own. Jacksonville is averaging 51 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 40.

Jacksonville QB Chad Henne  has completed 60.6% of his passes for 1,630 yards with 3 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He has been sacked 19 times this season and has 18 rushing yards. Blaine Gabbert started a few games earlier in the season. Gabbert has completed 48.8% of his passes for 481 yards with a touchdown and 7 picks, along with 9 carries for 32 yards. He has been sacked 12 times. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew has 143 carries, 432 yards and 3 touchdown, along with  20 catches for 143 yards. He is probable with a knee injury. Jordan Todman has 18 carries for 53 yards with 2 touchdowns along with 4 catches.

Receiver Cecil Shorts has 48 catches, 607 yards and a touchdown. Justin Blackmon returned from a 4 game suspension for violating the NFL”s substance abuse policy, and played in a few games. However, he failed another drug test and is suspended at least until next season. He had 29 catches for 415 yards and a touchdown. Mike Brown has 15 catches for 266 yards and a touchdown. Ace Sanders has 16 catches for 182 yards.  Tight end Clay Harbor has 13 catches, 166 yards and a touchdown. Receivers Stephen Williams (Achilles) and Stephen Burton (concussion) are both doubtful Sunday. Three defensive players and two offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

Arizona is 4-0 ATS against teams with losing home records, 6-1 after failing to cover, 5-1 against teams with losing records, 2-5 after allowing 90 rushing yards or less, 2-6 after a straight up win, and 0-4 after allowing 250 total yards or less.

Jacksonville is 8-19-1 ATS against teams with winning records, 2-6 against teams with winning road records and on grass, 6-20-1 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 2-8 overall, 1-7-1 after a straight up win, 0-6 after rushing for less than 90 yards, 0-4 at home, after a cover, after gaining less than 250 total yards, and after allowing more than 250 passing yards.

If Arizona is truly a playoff contender, this is the kind of game they should dominate. Even if they do have to travel to the East Coast for an early kickoff, Jacksonville is just bad. Yes, the Jags won last week but it took a safety and a defensive touchdown in the fourth quarter to do so. I Like Arizona to win, but Jacksonville hangs around for awhile.

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