NFL Turkey Day Betting Picks: Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
Thursday, November 26, 2015, 12:30 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Ford Field – Detroit, Michigan
Opening Line: Detroit pick
Current Line: Detroit pick
Opening Total: 47 (under -113)
Current Total: 45
Opening Money Line: Lions -110 / Eagles -110
Current Money Line: Lions -110 / Eagles -110

The Lions host the Eagles on Thanksgiving.
The Lions host the Eagles on Thanksgiving.

The 3-7 Detroit Lions host the 4-6 Philadelphia Eagles Thanksgiving. Detroit is in last place in the NFC North and Philadelphia is tied for second in the NFC East with the Washington Redskins. Both teams are behind the 5-5 New York Giants.

Philadelphia leads the series 16-13-2 against Detroit. Since 1995, the Eagles have won 7 of the last 8 games against the Lions. The Eagles won the last meeting 34-20 at home in 2013. Philadelphia is playing in Detroit for the first time since 2010. It is the first time the two teams are playing on Thanksgiving since 1968.

Philadelphia is coached by Chip Kelly. The Eagles have road losses at the Atlanta Falcons 26-24, Redskins 23-20 and Carolina Panthers 27-16, plus home losses to the Dallas Cowboys 20-10, Miami Dolphins 20-19 and last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45-17. Philadelphia has a road win at the New York Jets 24-17 and Cowboys 33-27 in overtime and at home against the New Orleans Saints 39-17 and Giants 27-7.

The Eagles were 7 point favorites against the Buccaneers and the total was 46. The teams were tied at 7 at the end of the first. However, Tampa Bay would lead 28-14 at halftime. The Buccaneers dominated in the second half in the humiliating rout. Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston threw five touchdown passes. The Buccs had 521 total yards and forced four Eagles’ turnovers. Philadelphia is 4-6 ATS and the total is 3-7 this season.

Detroit is coached by Jim Caldwell. The Lions’ have home wins over the Chicago Bears 37-34 and last week against the Oakland Raiders 18-13, and at the Green Bay Packers 18-16. The Lions have won two straight games after a 1-7 start.  Detroit has road losses at the San Diego Chargers 33-28, Minnesota Vikings 26-16, and Seattle Seahawks 13-10, along with home losses to the Denver Broncos 24-12, Arizona Cardinals 42-17 and Vikings 28-19, plus a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs  45-10 in London.

Detroit was a 2 point underdog against Oakland last week and the total was 50. The Lions took a 9-0 lead into halftime on three field goals. The Raiders would score 13 points in the third quarter. Detroit regained the lead with a 5 yard touchdown run from quarterback Matt Stafford early in the fourth. The Lions added a safety midway through the fourth. After a free kick, Detroit would go on a 13 play drive to run out the clock. The Lions had 375 total yards to just 214 for the Raiders. Detroit is 3-7 ATS and the total is 5-5 this season.

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Philadelphia is both scoring and allowing 22.9 points per game. The Eagles average 375 total yards on offense including 256 passing and 119 rushing yards. Philadelphia is #8 in total offense.  On defense, Philadelphia is allowing 374 yards per game including 246 passing yards and 129 rushing yards. The Eagles are #25 in total defense and #28 against the rush. The Eagles are 53/151 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 65/150. Philadelphia has forced 24 sacks and allowed 21 this season. The Eagles are +1 in turnovers. Philadelphia has 3 special teams/defensive touchdowns and has allowed 2 defensive touchdowns.

Philadelphia quarterback Sam Bradford has completed 63.9% of his passes for 2,297 yards with 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, along with 17 carries for 31 rushing yards. He is doubtful with a shoulder injury and missed last week. Mark Sanchez will start if Bradford can’t go. He has thrown for 417 yards with 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and has 18 rushing yards.

Running back DeMarco Murray has 141 carries for 515 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 39 catches for 295 yards and a touchdown. Ryan Mathews has 75 carries for 427 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 14 catches for 119 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a concussion.  Darren Sproles has 45 carries for 164 yards and a touchdown, along with 32 catches for 237 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver Jordan Matthews has 55 catches for 565 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Zach Ertz has 38 catches for 394 yards. He is questionable with a concussion. Brent Celek has 18 catches for 132 yards and 2 touchdowns. Riley Cooper has 13 catches for 247 yards and 2 touchdowns. Miles Austin has 12 catches for 212 yards and a touchdown. Josh Huff has 19 catches for 213 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Nelson Agholor will also get some catches. Five defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report. Kicker Cody Parkey is out for the season and has been replaced by Caleb Sturgis.

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Detroit is being outscored 27-19 this season. The Lions are #29 in both scoring and points allowed. Detroit is averaging 336 yards per game on offense including 265 passing and 71 rushing yards. The Lions are #25 in total offense and last in rushing. The passing game is #8 though. On defense, Detroit is allowing 367 yards per game including 251 passing and 117 rushing. The Lions are #24 in rush defense. Detroit is 52/144 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 58/131. The Lions have forced 24 sacks and allowed 26 this season. Detroit is -10 in turnovers. The Lions have 2 defensive touchdowns this season.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford has completed 64.2% of his passes for 2,607 yards with 15 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, along with 99 rushing yards on 23 carries with a touchdown. Dan Orlovsky is the back-up.

Running back Ameer Abdullah has 80 carries for 284 yards and a touchdown, along with 15 catches for 122 yards and a touchdown. Joique Bell has 50 carries for 138 yards and a touchdown, along with 10 catches for 91 yards. Theo Riddick will get some carries as well. Zach Zenner is out for the season with a chest injury.

Receiver Calvin Johnson has 59 catches for 828 yards and 3 touchdowns. Golden Tate has 52 catches for 501 yards and a touchdown. Riddick has 50 catches for 445 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Eric Ebron has 27 catches for 320 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Lance Moore has 26 catches for 307 yards and 4 touchdowns. Seven defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS on fieldturf, 8-3 in November, 5-2 against teams with losing home records, 7-3 after gaining more than 350 total yards, 4-16-1 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 1-5 in week 12, and 0-7 after a double digit home loss. The last 4 games in this series have gone over the total. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS against the Lions recently.

Detroit is 3-7 ATS against NFC teams, 2-5 against teams with losing records, and on fieldturf, 4-10 overall, 3-8 in Thursday games, 2-6 after a cover, 3-9 against teams with losing road records, 1-5 at home, after a straight up win and after passing for 250 yards or more. 1-10 in week 12, 0-4 after allowing less than 250 yards, and 0-5 after allowing 15 points or less. The home team is 5-2 ATS in this series recently.

I don’t trust either one of these teams. Detroit has played a lot better on defense in the last couple of weeks but the offense still struggles. They have won two straight games and scored 18 points in each game. Philadelphia looked terrible against Tampa Bay. I think the Lions win a close game at home in a low scoring affair.

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