NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals
Thursday, September 29, 2016, 8:25 pm, TV: NFL Network
Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, Ohio
Opening Line: Cincinnati -7
Current Line: Cincinnati -7 1/2 (-105)
Opening Total: 44
Current Total: 46
Opening Money Line: Bengals -300 / Dolphins +235
Current Money Line: Bengals -350 / Dolphins +290

The Bengals and Dolphins are both 1-2 as they meet in Cincinnati Thursday.
The Bengals and Dolphins are both 1-2 as they meet in Cincinnati Thursday.

The Cincinnati Bengals host the Miami Dolphins Thursday night to kick off week four of the NFL season. Both teams are 1-2 and desperate for a win, especially when you consider they both play in divisions with 3-0 teams. The Dolphins have dominated the series 16-5 including 3 straight wins. The Dolphins won the last meeting 22-20 in Miami in overtime in 2013. It was the incredibly rare walk-off safety in overtime.

Miami is coached by Adam Gase in his first season. The Dolphins lost at the Seattle Seahawks 12-10 in week one before losing at the New England Patriots 31-24 in week two. Miami got their first win of the season Sunday 30-24 against the Cleveland Browns in overtime in the home opener for the Dolphins. Cleveland kicker Cody Parkey missed three of six field goals before Miami running back Jay Ajayi scored the game winning touchdown on an 11 yard run. The Dolphins were 10 point favorites against the Browns and the total was 42. Miami is 1-2 ATS and the total is 2-1 this season.

Cincinnati is coached by Marvin Lewis. The Bengals won on the road at the New York Jets 23-22 in week one, before losing at the Pittsburgh Steelers 24-16 in week two. The Bengals lost at home to the Denver Broncos 29-17 last week. Cincinnati took a 17-16 lead early in the fourth, but the Broncos scored the final 13 points of the game to improve to 3-0. The Bengals were 3.5 point favorites against the Broncos and the total was 42. Cincinnati is 1-2 ATS and the total is 2-1 this season.

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Miami is being outscored 22-21 this season. The Dolphins average 366 yards per game on offense including 283 passing and 83 rushing yards. On defense, Miami is allowing 415 yards per game including 268 passing and 147 rushing yards. The Dolphins are #28 in total defense and #31 against the run. Miami is 10/36 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 18/48. The Dolphins have forced 9 sacks and allowed 6 this season. Miami is -3 in turnovers this season.

Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill has completed 64.6% of his passes for 892 yards with 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Sadly, he also leads the Dolphins in rushing with 12 carries for 54 yards and a touchdown.

Running back Arian Foster is doubtful with a groin injury after missing Sunday’s game. Look for Kenyan Drake and Ajayi to split the carries again.

Receiver Jarvis Landry has 24 catches for 314 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a shoulder injury. DeVante Parker has 11 catches for 157 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a hamstring injury. Kenny Stills has 8 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Dion Sims is questionable with an ankle injury. Tight end Jordan Cameron is out with a concussion. Eight offensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

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Cincinnati is being outscored 25-19 this season. The Bengals average 375 yards per game on offense including 293 passing and 82 rushing yards. The Bengals are #7 in passing but #27 in rushing. On defense, Cincinnati is allowing 356 total yards including 247 passing and 109 rushing yards per game. The Bengals are 13/41 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 17/42. The Bengals have forced four sacks and allowed 12 this season. Cincinnati is -1 in turnovers.

Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton has completed 65.2% of his passes for 938 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and has 11 carries for 54 yards.

Running back Jeremy Hill has 37 carries for 150 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 37 yards. Giovani Bernard has 15 carries for 50 yards along with 16 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver A.J. Green has 22 catches for 295 yards and a touchdown. Brandon LaFell has 9 catches for 154 yards. Tyler Boyd has 11 catches for 120 yards. C.J. Uzomah has 7 catches for 99 yards. Tight end Tyler Eifert is questionable with an ankle injury to make his season debut. Kicker Mike Nugent is questionable with an undisclosed injury. The Bengals have yet to sign a replacement kicker if Nugent can’t go, so punter Kevin Huber could handle the kicking duties. Seven defensive players are listed on the injury report. Linebacker Vontaze Burfict returns from a three game suspension.

Miami is 4-9 after accumulating 250 passing yards or more, 2-5 in road games, 3-8 in week four, 7-19 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 2-6 after failing to cover, 6-18 overall, 2-7 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 1-4 against teams with losing records and in September, 3-15 against AFC teams, 1-6 after a win and on fieldturf, 1-11 after gaining more than 350 total yards, and 0-7 against teams with losing records. The road team is 5-1 ATS in this series recently. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings against the Bengals including 4-0 in Cincinnati.

Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS after a double digit home loss, 7-1-2 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 4-1-1 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 3-1-1 after failing to cover, 6-2 against teams with losing records, 15-5-2 in September, 13-5 after a straight up loss, 1-3-1 overall, against AFC teams, and on fieldturf, 4-15 in week four, and 0-3-1 at home. The under is 3-1-1 in this series.

Cincinnati had aspirations of contending for the AFC title, but like the Dolphins they have some issues. Each of these teams need a win badly, and I think Cincinnati wins at home in a high scoring game.

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