NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Thursday, September 28, 2017, 8:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Network
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, Wisconsin
Opening Line: Green Bay -7 1/2 (Even)
Current Line: Green Bay -7
Opening Total: 45 1/2
Current Total: 45 1/2
Opening Money Line: Packers -300 / Bears +250
Current Money Line: Packers -350 / Bears +290

The Packers and Bears meet for the 195th time Thursday in Green Bay.

The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers meet for the 195th time Thursday at Lambeau Field. The series is tied 94-94-6. Green Bay has won 12 of the last 14 games and 7 of the last 8 games against Chicago. The Packers won both meetings last year including 26-10 at home and 30-27 in Chicago. The two teams meet again in Chicago November 12.

Chicago is coached by john Fox and is 1-2 this season. The Bears lost at home to the Atlanta Falcons 23-17 and on the road to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29-7. Chicago upset the Pittsburgh Steelers 23-17 in overtime last week in Chicago. The Steeelers were 7 point favorites and the total was 43.5. Chicago led 17-7 at halftime against Pittsburgh. The Steelers tied it up and forced overtime, but the Bears won on a 19 yard touchdown run from Jordan Howard. Chicago is 2-1 ATS and the total is 0-3 this season.

Green Bay is coached by Mike McCarthy. The Packers are 2-1 this season. Green Bay has home wins over the Seattle Seahawks 17-9 and last week over the Cincinnati Bengals 27-24 in overtime. The Packers lost at the Atlanta Falcons  34-23. Against Cincinnati, Green Bay was a 7 point favorite and the total was 47.5. The Bengals led 21-7 at halftime, but the Packers rallied to tie it at 24 with 17 seconds left. Green Bay would then kick a field goal in overtime to win 27-24. The Packers are 1-2 ATS and the total is 2-1 this season.

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Chicago is being outscored 23-16. The Bears are #28 in scoring in the league. Chicago averages 305 total yards per game including 183 passing and 122 rushing yards. The Bears are #8 in rushing and #27 in passing. On defense, Chicago allows 322 yards per game including 238 passing yards and 84 rushing yards. The Bears are #8 in rush defense. The Bears are 17/43 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 17/37. Chicago has forced 7 sacks and allowed 7 this season. Chicago is -3 in turnovers.

Quarterback Mike Glennon has thrown for 615 yards with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and has been sacked seven times. There has been calls from Chicago fans to start rookie Mitchell Trubisky whom the Bears traded up to draft #2 overall. Trubisky is listed as the #3 quarterback on the depth chart. Back-up Mark Sanchez is questionable with a neck injury.

Running back Jordan Howard has 45 carries for 199 yards and 3 touchdowns, and has 8 catches for 40 yards. Tarik Cohen has 24 carries  for 157 yards, plus 20 catches for 126 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver Kendall Wright has 10 catches for 103 yards. Tight end Zach Miller has 11 catches for 98 yards. Deonte Thompson has 6 catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. Josh Bellamy has 7 catches for 78 yards. Cameron Meredith and Kevin white are both out for the season.  Five defensive players and four offensive linemen are listed on the injury report for the Bears.

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Green Bay is both scoring and allowing 22.3 points per game. The Packers average 360 yards per game on offense including 291 passing and 69 rushing yards. Green Bay is #2 in passing, #10 in total offense, but #29 in rushing. On defense, Green Bay allows 297 total yards per game including 183 passing and 114 rushing yards per game. The Packers are #8 in total defense and #7 in pass defense. Green Bay is 24/46 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 12/35. The Packers have forced 9 sacks and allowed 13 this season. Green Bay is -2 in turnovers and has allowed two defensive touchdowns.

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 66.4% of his passes for 967 yards with 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 13 carries  for 52 yards. Rodgers has been sacked 13 times in three games, which is a concern.

Receiver turned running back Ty Montgomery has 41 carries for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 18 catches for 129 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a wrist injury. Jamaal Williams has 5 carries for 21 yards.

Receiver Davante Adams has 14 catches for 206 yards and a touchdown. Geronimo Allison has 9 catches for 146 yards. Randall Cobb has 15 catches for 145 yards, plus 10 rushing yards. He is questionable with a chest injury. Jordy Nelson has 13 catches for 131 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tight end Martellus Bennett has 11 catches for 102 yards.  Tight end Lance Kendricks has 4 catches for 70 and a touchdown. Ten defensive players and seven offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

Chicago is 5-0 ATS against teams with winning records, 5-2 on grass, and after passing for less than 150 yards, 7-3 overall, 14-37-1 after rushing for 150 yards or more, 2-7 in road games, 2-8 in September, 1-5 in Thursday games, after a straight up win and after allowing less than 90 rushing yards. Five of the last seven games in this series have gone over the total, but the under is 4-1 in Green Bay between the teams.

Green Bay is 5-1 ATS at home, 4-1 against teams with losing records, 8-3 after a straight up win, 5-2 against NFC teams, 7-3 in Thursday games and in September, 9-4 after rushing for less than 90 rushing yards, 45-22 against NFC North teams, and 0-4 against teams with losing records. The Packers are 10-3 ATS against the Bears recently, and were favored in each of those contests.

The Packers have struggled to stop the run and that is the strength of the Bears offense. Chicago upset Pittsburgh last week at home and nearly upset Atlanta in week one. Still, going into Lambeau and facing Aaron Rodgers is a different story. I think the Packers win convincingly in a high scoring game.

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