NFL Sunday Picks: San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

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San Francisco at New Orleans


Spread: NO -1

Total: 44.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The New Orleans Saints are 10-2 and will host the visiting San Francisco 49ers as just 1-point favorites in NFL action Sunday on FOX. The game will kick off at Noon (CST) and it has an over/under set at 44.5 points according to NFL oddsmakers at 5dimes.


New Orleans enters as winners of its last three, and it has won the last three by a combined total of 94 to 66. The Saints rank No. 9 in the league in passing yardage at 254.1 per game while averaging 107.3 via the rush (No. 17). New Orleans boasts a top-10 offense averaging 24.7 points per game, and it allows 20.7 per game, good for a differential of +4.

Veteran Quarterback Drew Bree’s has put together another strong season. He has thrown for 1,791 yards at a 73.8 percent passing clip with 12 touchdowns and four picks. He has been sacked just nine times (0.87 per game) and his passer rating is 104.4. But this all comes after yet another lost season for Teddy Bridgewater who has not played since October. Bridgewater destroyed his knee in the worst way in 2016 just to come back this season and injure his right thumb. The Saints are hoping that he can return strong as the eventual successor to Brees. He looked great in his seven appearances this year before the hand injury.

The Saints, though, are a team built on dual-threat running back Alvin Kamara. The once-offensive rookie of the year has rushed for 587 yards and caught for another 444 yards. He ranks as the No. 3 receiver behind tight end Jared Cook and Michael Thomas. Latavius Murray is the No. 2 rusher with 106 attempts for 464 yards and leads the team with five of the seven rushing touchdowns.

Thomas has done a great job as the lead receiver. He has 1,290 yards and has caught 110 of 132 targeted passes. He leads the team with six touchdowns and has achieved 66 of the 163 passing first downs.

Kicker Wil Lutz has been solid. He is 27 of 31 on field goals with all of his misses coming from beyond the 40. He is a very solid 11 of 13 from 40 to 49 yards and 2 of 4 from beyond midfield.


The San Francisco 49ers are 10-2 on the season and are tied with the Seattle Seahawks for the NFC West Division lead.

San Francisco has the league’s No. 2 rush offense at 148.0 yards per game, while it ranks middle-of-the-pack in passing at 230 yards per. The 49ers have the second-highest scoring offense at 29.1 per game, and it limits its opponents to just 15.3 per game.

49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo started the season slow, but he has come on strong since. He has thrown for 2,896 yards on 69 percent passing, no longer relegated to having to sit the bench behind the legendary Tom Brady in New England. Garoppolo has 21 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and he has been sacked 24 times for a total loss of 152 yards. His passer rating of 101.2 is weak, but it is not that representative of how well he has played since his poor start.

The 49ers have four rushing options all topping 400 yards on the season, using a runningback-by-committee approach that has worked darn well. Matt Breida leads in yardage (542), while Tevin Coleman has the most attempts (120), and Rasheem Mostert leads in yards-per-carry (5.9). The 49ers average 4.4 yards-per-carry as a team, and though Garoppolo has struggled as a carrier (just 1.3 yards-per-attempt) he has a touchdown and nine rushes for first down.

ATS Trends (SAN FRAN, C/o Covers):

49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.

49ers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

49ers are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 vs. NFC.

49ers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

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