NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Picks: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Sunday, November 12, 2017, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: NBC
Sports Authority Field – Denver, Colorado
Opening Line: New England -7
Current Line: New England -7
Opening Total: 46 1/2
Current Total: 45
Opening Money Line: Patriots -320 / Broncos +260
Current Money Line: Patriots -300 / Broncos +250

The 6-2 New England Patriots travel to the 3-5 Denver Broncos Sunday night. Both teams are going in opposite directions. The Patriots have won four straight games after a 2-2 start and the Broncos have lost four straight games after a 3-1 start. New England is in first place in the AFC East and tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the best record in the AFC. Denver is tied for last in the AFC West with the Los Angeles Chargers.

Denver leads the series 30-22 against New England. The Patriots won the last meeting 16-3 last season in Denver. This is the seventh straight season the teams have played each other including three playoff games.

New England is coached by Bill Belichick. The Patriots have home losses to the Kansas City Chiefs 42-27 and against the Carolina Panthers 33-30. New England has road wins over the New Orleans Saints 36-20, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19-14 and New York Jets 24-17, and home wins over the Houston Texans 36-33, Atlanta Falcons 23-7 and Los Angeles Chargers 21-13 two weeks ago. The Patriots were off last week. Against the Chargers, New England was a 6.5 point favorite and the total was 49. The Patriots are 4-4 ATS and the over is 4-4 this season.

Denver is coached by Vance Joseph in his first season. The Broncos have home wins over the Los Angeles Chargers 24-21, Dallas Cowboys 42-17 and Oakland Raiders 16-10. Denver has road losses at the Buffalo Bills 26-16, Los Angeles Chargers 21-0, Kansas City Chiefs 29-19 and Philadelphia Eagles 51-23 last week, plus a home loss to the New York Giants 23-10.  The Broncos were 7 point favorites against the Eagles and the total was 41. Denver is 2-5-1 ATS and the total is 5-3 this season.

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New England is outscoring opponents 27-22 this season. The Patriots are #7 in scoring and #17 in points allowed. New England averages 411 yards per game on offense including 302 passing and 109 rushing yards. New England is #1 in total and passing offense. The Patriots are allowing 417 yards per game on defense including 296 passing and 122 rushing yards. New England is last in total and passing defense and #25 in rush defense. The Patriots are 54/116 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 42/104. New England has forced 16 sacks and allowed 21 this season. The Patriots are +4 in turnovers.

Quarterback Tom Brady has completed 66.7% of his passes for 2,541 yards with 16 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 15 carries for 28 rushing yards. He has been sacked 21 times.

Running back Mike Gillislee has 98 carries for 355 yards and 4 touchdowns. Dion Lewis has 58 carries for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 10 catches for 58 yards.  James White has 28 carries for 120 yards and has 43 catches for 365 yards and a touchdown.  Rex Burkhead will also get some carries.

Receiver Brandin Cooks has 33 catches for 563 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has 34 catches for 509 yards and 5 touchdowns.   Chris Hogan has 33 catches for 438 yards and 5 touchdowns.  He is out with a shoulder injury. Danny Amendola has 31 catches for 338 yards and a touchdown.  He is probable with a knee injury. Malcolm Mitchell is questionable with a knee injury. The Patriots signed tight end Martellus Bennett off waivers from the Packers. He is questionable with a shoulder injury.  Receiver Julian Edelman is out with a torn ACL suffered in the pre-season. Twelve defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

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Denver is being outscored 25-19 this season. The Broncos are #25 in points allowed and #22 in scoring. Denver averages 327 yards per game on offense including 215 passing and 112 rushing yards.  On defense, Denver allows 281 total yards including 192 passing and 88 rushing yards per game. The Broncos are in the top five in all three categories.  Denver is 45/125 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 33/120. The Broncos have forced 19 sacks and allowed 28 this season. Denver is -12 in turnovers.

Quarterback Trevor Siemien has completed 61.5% of his passes for 1,669 yards with 9 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, along with 23 carries for 89 yards and a touchdown. He has been sacked 25 times. Brock Osweiler started last week against the Eagles. He will continue to start for the time being. He has thrown for 226 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Back-up Paxton Lynch is out questionable with a shoulder injury.

Running back C.J. Anderson has 116 carries for 482 yards and a touchdown, plus 12 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. Jamaal Charles has 54 carries for 236 yards and a touchdown, plus 13 catches for 71 yards. DeVontae Booker will also get some carries.

Receiver DeMaryius Thomas has 43 catches for 525 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a hamstring injury.  Emmanuel Sanders has 26 catches for 296 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with an ankle injury. Bennie Fowler III has 20 catches for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns. A.J. Derby has 18 catches for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Virgil Green has 9 catches for 120 yards and a touchdown. Seven defensive players and four offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

The home team is 7-1 ATS in this series recently. The Broncos are 6-2 ATS against the Patriots in Denver recently. The under is 5-2 in this series recently.

Denver’s offense has gone in the tank recently. The New England defense is the worst in the league but they don’t give up that many points. I think the Broncos hang around for a while after being embarrassed on defense by the Eagles last week. However, the Patriots win and cover on the road.

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The Patriots look to continue a four game winning streak as they travel to the Broncos Sunday night.
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