NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Picks: Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 1, 2017, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: NBC
CenturyLink Field – Seattle, Washington
Opening Line: Seattle -13 1/2 (+110)
Current Line: Seattle -13
Opening Total: 41
Current Total: 41 1/2
Opening Money Line: Seahawks -850 / Colts +575
Current Money Line: Seahawks -1100 / Colts +700

Seattle and Indianapolis are both 1-2 as they meet Sunday night in the Pacific Northwest.

Both the Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts are 1-2 this season as they meet Sunday night in Seattle. Seattle is a game behind the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West. Indianapolis is tied with the Houston Texans for last in the AFC South, but the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-1.

The Colts lead the series 7-4 against the Seahawks. Indianapolis has won three of the last four games in this series including 34-28 at home in 2013. This is the first time the Colts travel to Seattle since 2005.

Indianapolis is coached by Chuck Pagano. The Colts have a road loss to the Los Angeles Rams 46-9 and a home loss to the Arizona Cardinals 16-13 in overtime. Indianapolis beat the Cleveland Browns 31-28 last week at home. The Colts led 28-7 in the second quarter and held on for the three point win against the Browns. Indianapolis was a one point underdog at home to Cleveland and the total was 42. The Colts are 2-1 ATS and the total is 2-1 this season.

Seattle is coached by Pete Carroll. The Seahawks have road losses at the Green Bay Packers 17-9 and last week at the Tennessee Titans 33-27. Seattle has a home win over the San Francisco 49ers 12-9. Against Tennessee, the Seahawks were 2 point underdogs and the total was 42. Seattle took  a 14-9 lead early in the third, but Tennessee scored 21 straight points to lead 30-14. The Titans would hold on to win by six points. Seattle is 0-3 ATS and the total is 1-2 this season.

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Indianapolis is being outscored 30-18 this season. The Colts are #31 in points allowed. Indianapolis averages 275 yards per game on offense including 194 passing and 81 rushing yards. The Colts are #30 in total offense. Indianapolis allows 369 total yards per game including 284 passing and 86 rushing yards. The Colts are #28 in total defense and #29 against the pass. Indianapolis is 16/46 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 16/43. The Colts have forced 6 sacks and allowed 11 this season. The Colts are even in turnovers but have allowed two defensive touchdowns this season.

Quarterback Andrew Luck is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Jaboby Brissett took over as the quarterback for an ineffective Scott Tolzien. Brissett has completed 60.9% of his passes for 526 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and also has 11 carries for 36 yards and two touchdowns.  He has been sacked seven times. Tolzien has thrown for 128 yards with two interceptions.

Running back Frank Gore has 49 carries for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns, and also has 2 catches for 10 yards. Robert Turbin has 10 carries for 36 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 3 catches. Marlon Mack has  21 yards and a touchdown, plus 2 catches for 32 yards. He is out with a shoulder injury. Two other running backs George Winn and Christine Michael are both on injured reserved.

Receiver T.Y. Hilton has 14 catches for 259 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Jack Doyle has 12 catches for 136 yards. He is probable with a foot injury. Donte Moncrieff has 5 catches for 112 yards. Kamar Aiken has 5 catches for 43 yards. He is probable with a concussion.  Eight defensive players and three offensive linemen are on the injury report.

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Seattle is being outscored 20-16 this season. The Seahawks are #8 in points allowed, but #27 in scoring. Seattle averages 323 yards per game on offense including 227 passing and 97 rushing yards.  On defense, the Seahawks are allowing 346 total yards per game including 200 passing and 146 rushing yards. Seattle is #8 in pass defense but #30 in rush defense. The Seahawks are 17/48 on third and fourth conversions and opponents are 15/42. Seattle has forced 7 sacks and allowed 6 this season. The Seahawks are +1 in turnovers.

Quarterback Russell Wilson has completed 57.4% of his passes for 729 yards with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions, plus 21 carries for 100 yards. He has been sacked six times.

Running back Chris Carson has 37 carries for 166 yards, plus 4 catches for 35 yards and a touchdown.  C.J. Prosise, Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy have combined for 18 carries for 27 yards. Prosise has 6 catches for 87 yards, but is out with an ankle injury.

Receiver Doug Baldwin has 20 catches for 212 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a groin injury. Paul Richardson has 8 catches for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tyler Lockett has 9 catches for 102 yards. Tight end Jimmy Graham has 11 catches for 81 yards. He is probable with an ankle injury.  Tight end Luke Wilson has 6 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown.  Eleven defensive players and two offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

Indianapolis is 10-2 ATS against teams with losing home records, 26-8 against teams with losing records, 11-4 in week four, 2-6-1 after a cover, 1-7 after scoring more than 30 points, and 0-4 after a straight up win. The Colts have covered four of the last five games against the Seahawks.

Seattle is 5-1 ATS against teams with losing road records, 22-6-2 after passing for more than 250 yards, 7-2 after a straight up loss, 5-2 at home and after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 3-7-1 in October, 3-8 after allowing more than 30 points, 0-4 overall and after gaining more than 350 total yards. The over is 4-1 in this series recently.

Seattle is clearly the better team, but there is no guarantee they even score 13 points. Indianapolis can’t run the ball and the offensive line can’t protect the quarterback. The defense isn’t that great either. Still, I like Seattle to win convincingly and get back on track.

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