NFL Saturday Picks: Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 4 NFL Betting Trend Report
Here is the NFL Betting Trend Report

Houston at Tampa Bay


Spread: HOU -3

Total: 50

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Houston Texas are 9-5 and have won three of its last four overall. Houston travels to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Noon (CST) Saturday as 3-point favorites, with the over/under set at 50 total points according to NFL oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes.


The Houston Texans defeated Indianapolis, New England, and Tennessee with a loss to the Denver Broncos over its last four games. The Texans rank No. 10 in scoring 24.4 per game on the heels of a No. 7 ranked rush offense (130.9 yards per game) and a No. 11 ranked pass offense (245.0 per). The defense has been just solid enough, and given that Houston boasts just a +0.8 point differential, it should count itself fortunate to have tallied a 9-5 mark thus far.  Its last three wins all came by six points or less.

Deshaun Watson has blossomed this season. He has thrown 67.8 percent for completion and averages 289.3 yards per game. He has thrown 26 touchdown passes with 11 interceptions. His 39 sacks (2.9 per game) are troubling, but he has rushed for 376 yards on 75 carries with a team-best seven rushing touchdowns. Carlos Hyde racked up a 1,000 yard rushing year with 4.6 yards-per-carry on his 224 attempts. Hyde has rushed for five touchdowns. No. 2 running back Duke Johnson leads the team in yards-per-carry (5.1) but he has just 77 attempts on the season. The former Miami Hurricane has just one touchdown, though he has rushed for 16 first downs.

Watson’s top receiving threat has been DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has caught 99 passes for 1,142 yards and seven touchdowns. No. 2 WR Will Fuller V and No. 3 WR Kenny Stills have caught for 659 and 504 yards, respectively. Darren Fells has caught just 14 passes and is No. 6 in yardage, but he is tied with Hopkins for the team-lead with seven touchdowns.

Kicker Kaimi Fairbairn has hit 17 of 22 field goals, with all five of his misses coming from beyond the 40. He has hit 3 of 6 from behind midfield.

ATS Trends (C/o Covers):

Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.

Texans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Texans are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite.

Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Texans are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in December.

Texans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 16.

Texans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.

Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.

Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.


Tampa Bay is 7-7 this season but just 2-4 SU at home where it hosts the Texans this week. Tampa Bay enters riding a four-game win streak, which has seen it defeat the Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and Detroit Lions. Tampa Bay ranks No. 1 in the league in passing yardage with 308.8 per game, but it is just No. 27 in rushing yards (91.4). The Buccaneers rank No. 3 in the league in scoring at just under 30 (29.7) points per game, but Tampa Bay also gives up 28.4 points per game. Over its four-game win streak, it has outscored opponents 139 to 85.

Jameis Winston has racked up 4,573 yards this season, but he has 24 interceptions to his 30 touchdowns and a passer rating of just 87.9. He has been sacked three times per game on average (43 total) resulting in 268 lost yards. Winston has rushed 55 times for 229 yards and a touchdown. No. 1 and No. 2 running backs Ronald Jones II and Peyton Barber each average just 3.7 and 3.1 yards-per-carry, though they do have 11 touchdowns between them.

Winston’s top-two receivers each have eclipsed 1,000 yards, easily so. Chris Godwin has 86 catches for 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns, and Mike Evans has 67 catches for 1,157 yards and eight touchdowns. Tight end OJ Howard is the No. 3 receiver with 31 catches for 413 yards and a touchdown. Breshad Perriman is the No. 3 WR and he has 24 catches for 409 yards and five touchdowns. The Bucs have scored 30 TDs via the pass compared to its 14 via the rush.

ATS Trends (C/o Covers):

Buccaneers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Buccaneers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December.

Buccaneers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.

Buccaneers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

Buccaneers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.

Buccaneers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 16.

Buccaneers are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Buccaneers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games.
Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Buccaneers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
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