NFL Saturday Night Football Betting Picks: Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Saturday, December 26, 2015, 8:25 pm Eastern, TV: NFL Network
Opening Line: Philadelphia -3
Current Line: Philadelphia -3
Opening Total: 48 1/2
Current Total: 48 1/2
Opening Money Line: Eagles -160 / Redskins +140
Current Money Line: Eagles -160 / Redskins +140

The Eagles are a 3 point favorite against the Redskins Saturday night.
The Eagles are a 3 point favorite against the Redskins Saturday night.

The 7-7 Washington Redskins hold a slim one game lead over the 6-8 Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants in the NFC East. The Redskins can clinch the division title with a win Saturday at the Eagles. An Eagles win would likely set up a winner take all game next week for the division title at the Giants especially if New York beats the Minnesota Vikings Sunday night. Washington travels to the 4-10 Dallas Cowboys next week.

Washington leads the series against Philadelphia 83-73-5, and the two rivals have been playing since 1934. Washington has won 2 straight games in the series including 23-20 in Landover, October 4. Washington took a 13-0 lead into halftime, but the Eagles tied it up in the third. The Redskins took a 16-13 lead into the fourth. Philadelphia took a 20-16 lead early in the fourth, but Washington scored the game winning touchdown with 26 seconds left.

Washington is coached by Jay Gruden. The Redskins have home wins over the St. Louis Rams 24-10, Eagles 23-20, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-30, New Orleans Saints 47-14, Giants 20-14 and Buffalo Bills 35-25 last week, plus a road win at the Chicago Bears 24-21. Washington has home losses to the Miami Dolphins 17-10 and Cowboys 19-16, plus road losses at the Giants 32-21, Atlanta Falcons 25-19, New York Jets 34-20, New England Patriots 27-10, and Carolina Panthers 44-16.

Washington was a 2.5 point underdog against Buffalo last week and the total was 46. The Redskins took a 21-0 lead into halftime, and would lead 28-17 at the end of the third. The teams exchanged touchdowns in the fourth as Washington won by 10 points to move into sole possession of first place in the NFC East. The Redskins are 7-7 ATS and the total is 7-7 this season.

Philadelphia is coached by Chip Kelly. The Eagles have road losses at the Atlanta Falcons 26-24, Redskins 23-20, Carolina Panthers 27-16 and Detroit Lions 45-14, plus home losses to the Dallas Cowboys 20-10, Miami Dolphins 20-19, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45-17, and Arizona Cardinals 40-17 last week. Philadelphia has road wins at the New York Jets 24-17 and Cowboys 33-27 in overtime, and Patriots 35-28, and at home against the New Orleans Saints 39-17, Giants 27-7, and Buffalo Bills 23-20.

The Eagles were 3.5 point underdogs against the Cardinals and the total was 50.5. The game was tied at 10 midway through the second quarter. However, Arizona would score 27 straight points to take control of the game, including a 39 yard pick six. The Cardinals would cruise to a 40-17 win. The Eagles had 4 turnovers. Philadelphia is 6-8 ATS and the total is 6-8 as well this season.

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Washington is being outscored 24-23 this season. The Redskins are #16 in scoring and in points allowed. Washington is averaging 343 total yards per game on offense, including 247 passing and 97 rushing yards. The Redskins are #21 in total offense and #20 in rushing. Washington is allowing 370 yards per game on defense, including 240 passing and 130 rushing yards. The Redskins are #25 in total defense and #28 in rush defense. Washington is 88/199 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 77/194. The Redskins have forced 29 sacks and allowed 24 this season. Washington is -1 in turnovers. The Redskins have four defensive/special teams touchdowns and have allowed four as well.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins has completed 69.7% of his passes for 3,625 yards with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and has 5 rushing touchdowns. He took over as the starter in the pre-season for former first round pick Robert Griffin III after Griffin suffered a concussion.

Alfred Morris has 166 carries for 602 yards and a touchdown, plus 10 catches for 55 yards. Rookie Matt Jones has 144 carries for 490 yards with 3 touchdowns, along with 19 catches for 304 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a hip injury. Chris Thompson has 28 carries for 197 yards, along with 34 catches for 228 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a shoulder injury.

Tight end Jordan Reed has 74 catches for 778 yards and 9 touchdowns. He is probable with a shoulder injury. Receiver Pierre Garcon has 62 catches for 648 yards and 4 touchdowns.  DeSean Jackson has 26 catches for 488 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is probable with a foot injury. Jamison Crowder has 52 catches for 482 yards and a touchdown. Ryan Grant has 19 catches for 226 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with an ab injury. Reciver Andre Roberts and Tight ends Derek Carrier, Niles Paul and Logan Paulsen are all on injured reserve.  Sixteen defensive players and four offensive linemen are on the injury report for the Redskins.

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Philadelphia is being outscored 26-23 this season. The Eagles are 327 in points allowed.  The Eagles average 357 total yards on offense including 244 passing and 113 rushing yards. On defense, Philadelphia is allowing 393 yards per game including 259 passing yards and 134 rushing yards. The Eagles are #24 or worse in all three categories. The Eagles are 80/211 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 92/209. Philadelphia has forced 37 sacks and allowed 42 this season. The Eagles are -2 in turnovers. Philadelphia has six special teams/defensive touchdowns and has allowed three defensive touchdowns.

Philadelphia quarterback Sam Bradford has completed 63.7% of his passes for 3,025 yards with 16 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, along with 22 carries for 37 rushing yards. He missed two games with a shoulder injury and is probable. Mark Sanchez started in place of Bradford. He has thrown for 616 yards with 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and has 22 rushing yards.

Running back DeMarco Murray has 176 carries for 606 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 41 catches for 298 yards and a touchdown. Ryan Mathews has 98 carries for 523 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 17 catches for 126 yards and a touchdown. Darren Sproles has 75 carries for 284 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 45 catches for 312 yards and a touchdown. He also has two punt returns for touchdowns.

Receiver Jordan Matthews has 72 catches for 839 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is probable with a back injury. Tight end Zach Ertz has 53 catches for 579 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with a leg injury. Brent Celek has 24 catches for 342 yards and 3 touchdowns. Riley Cooper has 21 catches for 327 yards and 2 touchdowns. Josh Huff has 26 catches for 304 yards and 3 touchdowns.   Miles Austin has 13 catches for 224 yards and a touchdown.  Nelson Agholor will also get some catches. Eight defensive players are listed on the injury report. Kicker Cody Parkey is out for the season and has been replaced by Caleb Sturgis.

Washington is 4-1 ATS in week 16, 19-40-3 against teams with losing records, 4-9 after passing for more than 250 yards, 4-12 after a straight up win, 5-15-2 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 2-6 in road games, 1-4 after scoring more than 30 points, and in Saturday games, 2-8 after a cover, and 1-4 against teams with losing home records. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in this series recently. The Redskins are 5-2 ATS overall against the Eagles and 6-2 in Philadelphia.

Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS after gaining more than 350 total yards, 7-15 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 2-5 in week 16, 4-16-1 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 1-4 against NFC teams, and on grass, 1-5 after passing for more than 250 yards, and 0-8 after a double digit home loss.

Neither one of these teams are very good, and both are battling injuries. Whichever of these teams wins the NFC East, or even the Giants will likely be close to a double digit home underdog against the Seattle Seahawks in the wild card playoffs. Still, I think the Redskins find a way to steal a close game on the road.

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