NFL Picks and Predictions: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Garbage or garbage?
Garbage or garbage?

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Time: NOON (CT), CBS
Spread: MIA -4
Total: 43.5

Betting odds c/o 5dimes

The Miami Dolphins have improved to 3-4 with back-to-back victories over the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills and will look to extend the win streak to three games as it hosts the visiting New York Jets as 4-point favorites at Noon on CBS.

The over/under for the game is set at 43.5 according to college football oddsmakers at 5dimes.

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Last week for the Dolphins, it was the Jay Ajayi show. The second-year running back from Boise State had a career game with 214 yards and a TD. He rushed 28 times, averaging 7.6 yards per carry and had a 53-yard rush in the game. It made Ryan Tannehill’s job even easier: Tannehill threw for 204 yards and a TD while completing 60 percent of his passes as the Dolphins amassed 454 total yards in the game. Can Ajayi go bonkers again?

He had 204 yards on the Pittsburgh Steelers on Oct 16, and in that game he had an 8.2 yard per carry average and a 62-yard run. He is the key to the Dolphins taking down the Jets this week, notwithstanding that Tannehill has struggled.

Tannehill has thrown for 1,728 yards on the season with seven TDs, but he has thrown seven picks. He is also being sacked 2.4 times per game.

Tannehiil has thrown five of those in the last three games, and last week he had two while not throwing a TD against the Titans in the 17-30 loss. He was 12 of 18 for 191 yards, but his passer rating has been 80 or less in three of the past five weeks. He is averaging 8.11 yards per attempt, but the accuracy has to improve as attested to by his 87.5 passer rating.

Miami’s defense has kept it in games, allowing 22.7 points per game (No. 17), but the Phins still have a negative-1.8 point differential and are sitting in third in the AFC West.

The New York Jets are 3-5 with a 2-3 road mark but are coming off back-to-back wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns. Prior to that was a four-game skid which saw New York fall to Kansas City, Seattle, Arizona, and Pittsburgh—perhaps three of those four games were tough ones for the Jets to manage to win.

The win last week over Cleveland came by just a field goal as the Jets got 82 yards out of Matt Forte including two TDs to beat the winless Browns.

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Ryan Fitzpatrick has been fairly horrible. He has thrown for 1,789 yards but sports a 6.6 yard per attempt average and has thrown more interceptions (11) than TDs (seven) while also having incurred 14 sacks for a total loss of 51 yards. His passer rating hovers at a lowly 68.0, and the Jets are not a good offensive team by any stretch of the imagination.

Forte is a solid back (relatively speaking?), but he has been good for just 3.5 yards per carry and has just one rush on the season for more than 20 yards. Forte’s six touchdowns account for nearly all the Jets’ rush scoring (the team has seven) while New York has not been notably better passing the football (eight TDs on the year). He is also battling knee issues, but he is expected to play.

The Jets rank No. 23 in passing yardage and No. 15 in rushing, and the offense is one of the worst in the NFL averaging just 18.8 points per game and ranking fifth-to-last. The defense of course has not been good enough to make up the difference, allowing 23 points per game and ranking No. 23. The negative-7.2 point differential is fairly reflective of the team’s struggles, but perhaps coming off two wins against bad teams is enough to give the Jets the confidence to give Miami a game.

Neither of these teams are likely to be postseason-bound, but there is something on the line as Tannehill tries to regain form and Ajayi looks to build on his success. As for the Jets, it might not be much longer before we hear cries for Geno Smith or (the injured) Christian Hackenberg.

Something has to be better than what Fitzpatrick has given the men in green and white.

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