NFL Odds, Picks: Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

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Green Bay at Indianapolis

Time: 3:25 PM EST

Spread: EVEN

Total: 51.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Green Bay Packers travel to face the Indianapolis Colts at 3:25 (EST) on FOX.

GB News & Notes:

Green Bay has lost two of its last five games, but it started the season out 4-0 and is seeking a return to the form it exhibited during that stretch, which saw it knock off the Saints and Falcons with relative ease. The Packers can hurt a defense on the ground or in the air, and that is a familiar theme given that Aaron Rodgers has shown almost no signs of a fall off.

The veteran has 2,578 yards on the season to go along with 26 touchdowns. He has thrown just two picks and is sacked only about one time per contest (nine in eight games). His 116.4 passer rating is exceedingly exemplary of an offense that can hurt an opponent with a varied MO driven by not only Rodgers but also by having three solid backfield options and premier wide receivers.

Aaron Jones leads the rush attack with 103 of the team’s 247 carries. He has rushed for 22 first downs and five touchdowns, with a 4.8 yard-per-carry average, as well. Jamaal Williams adds another 324 yards, while AJ Dillion has been good in his minimal (23) attempts. The Packers as a team average 4.4 yards-per-carry, though the Pack has just six touchdowns via the rush, with Jones accounting for all but one.

Davante Adams, Robert Tonyan (the tight end), and Marquez Valdes-Scantling all have better than 300 receiving yards on the season, and the trio accounts for 18 of the team’s 26 passing touchdowns. Adams already has 741 yards, which is more than double No. 2 option Robert Tonyan’s 347 yards. Allen Lazard has also rotated in for some big plays with his 19.5 yard-per-catch average and his 100 yards after the catch, on just 13 receptions.

The Packers are loaded enough that it can punish via the air, take a massive lead, and grind the clock down with its ground attack. That is a sustainable method to obtain another title, even as it looks to punish a Jags team that barely belongs in the same stadium, metaphorically anyway.

IND News & Notes:

The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a 41-21 win over Detroit. And the Colts have lost two of its last five games. A win today would more than get it back on track as it is currently tied with the Tennessee Titan for the division lead.

The Colts have been a force defensively. It allows just 20 points per game while managing to hang 26.9 up itself, giving it a better win differential than Tennessee even.

Philip Rivers has seamlessly adapted to his new team, and he has already eclipsed 2,300 yards this season with 11 touchdowns. Problematic, however, is the fact Rivers has thrown seven picks. The backfield is experiencing similar woes due to poor blocking. The Colts’ top-three ball carriers all averaged under four yards per attempt (currently 3.8). The Colts also have just 10 rushing touchdowns on the season, while it has managed 11TD receptions. Overall, Indy has some of the metrics to suggest that this will be a close game, but it can be expected the Green Bay Packers pull this off, as it looms as something of a fan favorite in a game with EVEN odds, nevertheless.

The Colts could sneak one, but it will require forcing Aaron Rodgers into mistakes he seldom makes, or some other fortuitous advantage like a careless turnover or two that Indy can capitalize on. Presumably, Indy clings to that EVEN point spreads as a nod towards its home field, but that is all the more reason we prefer Green Bay to emerge as victors.

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