NFL Monday Night Football Betting Preview: New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals
Monday, October 17, 2016, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
University of Phoenix Stadium – Glendale, Arizona
Opening Line: Arizona -7 1/2
Current Line: Arizona -7 1/2 (-105)
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 46
Opening Money Line: Cardinals -345 / Jets +280
Current Money Line: Cardinals -340 / Jets +270

The Cardinals are 7.5 point favorites against the Jets Monday night.
The Cardinals are 7.5 point favorites against the Jets Monday night.

At the beginning of the season, many projected the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals to make the playoffs. The Jets missed the AFC playoffs by one game last year and the Cardinals advanced all the way to the NFC Championship game. Both teams might make the playoffs still but they are currently both below .500. New York is 1-4 in the AFC East as they travel to the 2-3 Arizona Cardinals of the NFC West Monday night. Not only is it a virtual must win game for both teams, it has the added intrigue of New York head coach Todd Bowles coming back to the franchise for which he served as defensive coordinator before becoming a head coach.

New York leads the series 6-2 against Arizona. The Cardinals won the first two games against the Jets but have not beaten the Jets since 1975. New York has won six straight in the series including 7-6 in New Jersey in 2012 in the last meeting. The Jets have not played in Arizona since 2004.

The Jets have a road win at the Buffalo Bills 37-31. New York has home losses to the Cincinnati Bengals 23-22 and Seattle Seahawks 27-17, plus road losses at the Kansas City Chiefs 24-3  and last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-13. New York led 13-7 against Pittsburgh with just over 2 minutes left in the first half, but the Steelers scored the last 24 points of the game. Pittsburgh was a 10 point favorite and the total was 50. New York is 1-4 ATS and the total is 3-2 this season.

Arizona is coached by Bruce Arians. The Cardinals have a home win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40-7, plus a road win at the San Francisco 49ers 33-21 last Thursday. Arizona has home losses to the New England Patriots 23-21 and Rams 17-13, plus a road loss at the Buffalo Bills 33-18. The Cardinals were 3.5 point favorites against the 49ers and the total was 42.5. Arizona trailed 14-7 at halftime in that game but would lead 21-14 at the end of the third. Arizona pulled away in the fourth quarter and led by as many as 31-14. Both teams had under 300 total yards, but the 49ers had three turnovers.  Arizona is 2-3 ATS this season and the total is 2-3 this season.

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New York is being outscored 27-18 this season New York is #28 in scoring and #25 in points allowed. The Jets average 352 yards per game including 247 passing and 104 rushing yards. On defense, the Jets allow 371 total yards per game including 303 passing and 68 rushing yards. New York is #31 against the pass but #1 in rush defense. The Jets are 30/69 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 22/60. New York has forced 12 sacks and allowed 9 this season. The Jets are -9 in turnovers and has allowed three defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed 57.8% of his passes for 1,267 yards with 5 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and also has 15 carries for 72 yards. There have been growing calls to bench the struggling Fitzpatrick in favor of one of the two young quarterbacks they have on the roster in Geno Smith or Christian Hackenberg.

Running back Matt Forte has 93 carries for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 13 catches for 90 yards. That is a lot of touches for a 31 year old running back. He is probable with a knee injury. Bilal Powell has 17 carries for 109 yards along with 21 catches for 144 yards.

Receiver Brandon Marshall has 24 catches for 363 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with a knee injury.  Quincy Enunwa has 27 catches for 294 yards and a touchdown. Eric Decker has 9 catches for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is out for the season with a shoulder injury. No other receiver has more than 5 catches besides the running backs. Six defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report. Cornerback Darrell Revis and center Nick Mangold are both questionable.

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Arizona is outscoring teams 25-20 this season. Arizona is #11 in scoring and #9 in points allowed. The Cardinals average 363 yards per game including 248 passing and 115 rushing yards. Arizona is #7 in rushing offense. On defense, the Cardinals allow 308 total yards per game including 190 passing and 118 rushing yards. The Cardinals are in the top five in total and pass defense. Arizona is 28/71 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 30/73. Arizona has forced 18 sacks and allowed 13 this season. The Cardinals are +2 in turnovers.

Quarterback Carson Palmer has completed 58.8% of his passes for 1,150 yards with 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He missed last week with a concussion but is probable Monday night. Drew Stanton started against the 49ers. He has thrown for 172 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Running back David Johnson has 91 carries for 457 yards and 5 touchdowns along with 17 catches for 238 yards. Chris Johnson is out until at least week 12 with a hernia. He has 25 carries for 95 yards and a touchdown. Look for Andre Ellington, Stepfan Taylor and perhaps Kerwynn Williams to get more carries without Chris.

Receiver Larry Fitzgerald has 31 catches for 361 yards and 5 touchdowns. John Brown has 19 catches for 247 yards. Michael Floyd has 12 catches for 170 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jaron Brown has 7 catches for 152 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Darren Fells is questionable with s shoulder injury. He has 8 catches for 53 yards. Jermaine Gresham is the only healthy tight end on the roaster. Ten defensive players are listed on the injury report including four defensive tackles and five players in the secondary.

New York is 4-1-1 ATS against teams with losing records, 2-5-1 against teams with losing home records, 2-6 after a straight up loss, after failing to cover, and after allowing more than 30 points, 1-3-1 after allowing 350 yards or more, and in road games, 1-4-1 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 1-5 after a straight up loss by 14 points or more, and overall, and 0-4 on grass. The road team is 4-1 ATS in this series recently.

Arizona is 20-7 ATS against teams with losing records, 2-5 on grass, 2-6-1 after rushing for 150 yards or more, 2-6 overall, 1-4 after scoring 30 points or more, 2-8 at home, 1-5 after a cover, 0-6 in Monday games, 0-4 after a straight up win, and 0-5 after allowing less than 150 passing yards.

New York has been awful during their three game losing streak, granted they have have played four playoff teams from last year and Arizona will be the fifth. The Cardinals have also been disappointing but I think they have more talent. I like the Cardinals to win by double digits at home in a high scoring game.

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