NFL Monday Night Football Betting Preview: New York Giants at Miami Dolphins

New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
Sun Life Stadium – Miami Gardens, Florida
Monday, December 14, 2015, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Miami pick
Current Line: New York -1
Opening Total: 47 1/2
Current Total: 47
Opening Money Line: Dolphins -110 / Giants -110
Current Money Line: Giants -115 / Dolphins -105

Miami hosts the New York Giants Monday in battle of 5-7 teams.
Miami hosts the New York Giants Monday in battle of 5-7 teams.

Both the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins are 5-7 this season. The difference is the Dolphins are in last place in the AFC East, while the Giants look to move into a three way tie for first in the NFC East with the Washington Redskins and Philadelphia Eagles. Both those teams won yesterday.  The Dolphins host the Giants Monday night.

The Giants lead the series 5-2 against the Dolphins. New York has won three of the last four against Miami, including 20-17 in New Jersey in 2011. The Giants haven’t played in Miami since 1996.

New York is coached by Tom Coughlin. The Giants have road losses at the Dallas Cowboys 27-26, Eagles 27-7, New Orleans Saints 52-49 and Redskins 20-14, and home loss to the Atlanta Falcons 24-20, New England Patriots 27-26 and New York Jets 23-20 in overtime last week. New York has lost 3 straight  games by a total of 10 points. The Giants have home wins against the Redskins 32-21, San Francisco 49ers 30-27, and Cowboys 27-20 along with  road wins at the Buffalo Bills 24-10 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32-18.

The Giants were 2.5 point underdogs against their MetLife Stadium co-tenants the New York Jets and the total was 45.5. The Giants were considered the home team though. The Jets took an early 3-0 lead, but the Giants would take a 20-10 lead into halftime. Neither team scored in the third quarter. The Jets tied it up in the fourth with 10 points, in the last five minutes of regulation. The Jets scored first in overtime with a 31 yard field goal. The Giants drove down the field but kicker Josh Brown missed the game tying 48 yard field goal as the Jets escaped with the win. The Giants are 6-5-1 ATS and the total is 7-5 this season.

Miami is coached by Dan Carpenter, who took over as the interim coach when Joe Philbin was fired earlier this season. Miami has road wins at the Washington Redskins 17-10, Tennessee Titans 38-10, and Philadelphia Eagles 20-19, along with home wins against the Houston Texans 44-26 and Baltimore Ravens 15-13 last week. Miami has road losses at the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-20, New England Patriots 36-7, Buffalo Bills 33-17 and Jets 38-20, plus home losses against the Bills 41-17 and  Cowboys 24-14, along with a loss to the Jets 27-14 in London. In five AFC East division games so far this year, the Dolphins are being outscored by an average of 35-15.

Miami was a 3.5 point favorite against Baltimore and the total was 43. Neither team scored until under two minutes left in the first half. Miami scored 15 straight points in a 20 second span on a 38 yard touchdown pass and a 22 yard pick six. The Dolphins converted for two to make it 15-0. The Ravens kicked a field goal before halftime to make it 15-3. Baltimore pulled to within 15-13 early in the fourth on another field goal. Baltimore had three more possessions but couldn’t score. The Ravens missed a 55 yard field goal  with 2:47 left. Miami had only 219 total yards to 375 for Baltimore. The Dolphins are 4-8 ATS and the total is 6-6 this season.

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New York is outscoring teams 26-25 this season. The Giants are #7 in scoring. The Giants average 355 yards per game on offense including 267 passing and 88 rushing yards. New York is #7 in passing offense, and #29 in rushing.  New York is allowing 423 yards per game on defense including 315 passing and 109 rushing yards. The Giants are last in total defense and against the pass. New York is 69/175 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 83/180. The Giants have 15 sacks and have allowed 21 this season. New York is +10 in turnovers. The Giants have allowed 2 special teams/defensive touchdowns and has 6 defensive/special teams touchdowns.

Quarterback Eli Manning has completed 66.3% of his passes for 3,318 yards with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and has 15 carries for 59 yards. He is probable with an ankle injury. Ryan Nassib is the back-up.

Running back Rashad Jennings has 116 carries for 431 yards and a touchdown, along with 22 catches for 207 yards and a touchdown. Andre Williams has 71 carries for 202 yards and a touchdown. Shane Vereen has 51 carries for 216 yards, plus 42 catches for 349 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. has 78 catches for 1,154 yards and 10 touchdowns. Rueben Randle has 42 catches for 533 yards and 4 touchdowns. Dwayne Harris has 38 catches for 340 yards with 4 touchdowns. Harris also has a kickoff and a punt return for touchdowns. Will Tye has 24 catches for 296 yards.  Tight end Larry Donnell has 29 catches for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is out for the season with a neck injury. Receiver Victor Cruz is out for the season with a calf injury . Tight end Daniel Fells is out indefinitely with a staph infection in his foot. Nine defensive players are listed on the injury report, as are five offensive linemen.

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Miami is outscoring teams 25-20 this season. The Dolphins are #24 in scoring and #23 in points allowed. Miami averages 326 total yards per game on offense, including 231 passing and 95 rushing yards per game. The Dolphins are #22 or worse in all three categories. On defense, Miami is allowing 390 total yards per game including 256 passing and 135 rushing yards. The Dolphins are #24 or worse in all three categories. Miami is 44/158 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 76/181. Miami has forced 26 sacks but has allowed 34 this season. The Dolphins are -3 in turnovers. Miami has a special teams touchdown and three defensive touchdowns, and has allowed 2 defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has thrown for 3,077 yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, along with 68 rushing yards.

Running back Lamar Miller has 139 carries for 680 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 39 catches for 346 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jonas Gray and Jay Ajayi will also get some carries.

Wide receiver Jarvis Landry has 78 catches for 821 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 15 carries for 107 yards with a rushing touchdown. Rishard Matthews has 43 catches for 662 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is out indefinitely with broken ribs. Kenny Stills has 20 catches for 343 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is questionable with an ankle injury. Tight end Jordan Cameron has 26 catches for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns. DeVante Parker, Greg Jennings, Jake Stoneburner and Damien Williams will also get some catches. Stoneburner has two touchdown catches. Seven defensive players are listed on the injury report.

New York is 5-1 ATS after gaining more than 350 total yards, 4-1 in week 14, 5-2 against teams with losing home records, and in December, 5-2-1 in road games and 1-5 in Monday games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in this series recently.

Miami is 3-9 ATS after a straight up loss, 13-39-1 against teams with losing road records, 2-7 against teams with losing records, 1-5 after a straight up win and overall, 1-7 at home, 0-8 in December, 0-6 on Monday and after allowing 250 passing yards or more. The last four games in this series have gone under the total.

Neither one of these teams are very good. In six of New York’s seven losses, the Giants led late in the fourth. I don’t trust either of these teams but I think it will be high scoring game as both defenses struggle.

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