NFL Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Monday, November 28, 2016, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Opening Line: Philadelphia -3
Current Line: Philadelphia -4 (-108)
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 48
Opening Money Line: Eagles -170 / Packers +150
Current Money Line: Eagles -200 / Packers +170

The Packers look to snap a four game losing streak as they travel to the Eagles Monday night.
The Packers look to snap a four game losing streak as they travel to the Eagles Monday night.

The 4-6 Green Bay Packers travel to the 5-5 Philadelphia Eagles Monday night. Both teams are desperate for a win to stay in the playoff hunt. The Packers are in third place in the NFC North behind the 7-4 Detroit Lions and 6-5 Minnesota Vikings. Philadelphia is in last place in the NFC East. The Washington Redskins currently hold the last wild card spot at 6-4-1 but the surging 6-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are also in the mix along with the Vikings and these two teams potentially.

Green Bay leads the series 26-16 against Philadelphia. The Packers have won four of the last five against the Eagles, including 53-20 in the last meeting at Lambeau in 2014. This series dates back to 1933.

Green Bay is coached by Mike McCarthy. Green Bay has a road win at the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-23 and home wins against the Detroit Lions 34-27, New York Giants 23-16 and Chicago Bears 26-10. The Packers have road losses at the Minnesota Vikings 17-14, Atlanta Falcons 33-32, Tennessee Titans 47-25, and Washington Redskins 42-24 last week, along with home losses to the Dallas Cowboys 30-16 and Indianapolis Colts 31-26. The Packers have lost four straight games. Green Bay was a 3 point underdog against Washington and the total was 48. The Packers are 4-5-1 ATS and the total is 6-4 this season.

Philadelphia is coached by Doug Pederson in his first season. The Eagles have home wins over the Cleveland Browns 29-10, Pittsburgh Steelers 34-3, Minnesota Vikings 21-10 and Atlanta Falcons 24-15, plus a road win at the Chicago Bears 29-14. Philadelphia has road losses at the Detroit Lions 24-23, Washington Redskins 27-20, Dallas Cowboys 29-23 in overtime, New York Giants 28-23 and Seattle Seahawks 26-15 last week. The Eagles are 5-5 ATS and the total is 5-5. Philadelphia was a 6.5 point underdog against Seattle and the total was 42.5.

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Green Bay is being outscored 28-25 this season. The Packers are #11 in scoring but #29 in points allowed.  The Packers average 363 yards per game on offense including 262 passing and 101 rushing yards. Green Bay is #9 in passing. On defense, Green Bay allows 357 total yards per game including 266 passing and 91 rushing yards per game. The Packers are #7 in rush defense and #24 in pass defense. Green Bay is 69/149 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 60/137. The Packers have forced 24 sacks and allowed 24 this season. Green Bay is -6 in turnovers.

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 63.2% of his passes for 2,761 yards with 25 touchdowns and 7 touchdowns, along with 40 carries  for 259 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Running back Eddie Lacy has 71 carries for 360 yards, plus 4 catches for 28 yards. He is out for the season with an ankle injury. James Starks has 40 carries for 100 yards plus 14 catches for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ty Montgomery has 28 carries for 145 yards but is listed as a receiver. The Packers signed Christine Michael off waivers from the Seahawks. He led the Seahawks in rushing before being released. Don Jackson and John Crockett are also both out for the season.

Receiver Jordy Nelson has 53 catches for 663 yards and 9 touchdowns. He has been great after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. Davante Adams has 53 catches for 663 yards and 6 touchdowns. Randall Cobb has 48 catches for 517 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 10 carries for 33 yards. Ty Montgomery has 28 catches for 240 yards. Tight end Richard Rodgers has 23 catches for 203 and a touchdown. Tight end Jared Cook has 12 catches for 158 yards and a touchdown. Eight defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

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Philadelphia is outscoring teams 24-19 this season. The Eagles are #5 in points allowed. Philadelphia averages 340 total yards per game including 222 passing and 118 rushing yards. The Eagles are #27 in passing and #6 in rushing. The Eagles allow 335 yards per game on defense including 229 passing and 106 rushing yards. Philadelphia is #7 in total and #9 in pass defense. Philadelphia is 52/147 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 49/139. The Eagles have forced 26 sacks and allowed 21 this season. Philadelphia is +4 in turnovers.

Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz has been impressive for the Eagles so far. He has completed 63.2% of his passes for 2,339 yards with 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and has 48 rushing yards.

Running back Ryan Mathews has 102 carries for 427 yards and 7 touchdowns, plus 11 catches for 94 yards and a touchdown. He is out Monday with a knee injury. Darren Sproles has 63 carries for 319 yards, plus 34 catches for 304 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a rib injury. Wendell Smallwood has 57 carries for 253 yards and a touchdown, plus 5 catches. Kenjon Barner has 23 carries for 121 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Receiver Jordan Matthews has 53 catches for 639 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tight end Zach Ertz has 35 catches for 337 yards and a touchdown. Nelson Agholor has 27 catches for 264 yards and a touchdown. Dorial Green-Beckham has 23 catches for 248 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Trey Burton has 14 catches for 155 yards and a touchdown. Nine defensive players and two offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

Green Bay is 5-1 ATS after rushing for less than 90 yards, 7-3-1 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 35-16 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 3-7-1 after gaining more than 350 total yards, 1-4-1 after a straight up loss by 14 points or more, and on grass, 0-4 in week 12 and in November, 0-6 after allowing more than 30 points, and 0-3-1 after allowing more than 250 passing yards. The Packers have covered four of the last five against the Eagles.

Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS at home, 5-1 in Monday games and on grass, 2-5 overall and against NFC teams, 7-20-1 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 1-5 in November and 1-6 in week 12. The under is 6-1 in this series recently and 4-0 in Philadelphia between the teams. The favorite is 6-2 ATS in this series recently.

The Eagles are a different team at home than on the road. They are 4-0 at home and 1-5 on the road. The Packers are just not a good football team right now. They have no running game, and the defense struggles at time. It is hard to believe this team will lose five games in a row but it seems very likely. I think the Eagles win easily in a high scoring game.

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