NFL Monday Afternoon on FOX Odds: KC Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Week 4 NFL Betting Trend Report
Here is the NFL Betting Trend Report

K.C. Chiefs at Buffalo

Time: 4 PM EST (FOX/NFL)

Spread: KC -4.5

Total: 57.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Kansas City Chiefs lost 32-40 to the Vegas Raiders last week to blemish its previously unbeaten record, falling to 4-1 on the young season. Week 6 sees the Chiefs travel to face Buffalo as 4.5-point favorites, in a game that will air at 4 PM (EST) Monday afternoon on FOX. The over/under is set at 57.5 total points according to NFL oddsmakers at 5dimes.


Kansas City has been great offensively thus far, but its defense has been somewhat marginal. Offensively, KC is ranking No. 4 in passing yards per game at 287.8, while it ranks No. 14 via the rush at 119.4 per game. Overall, the Chiefs generate 29.8 points per game, ranking No. 9 in the NFL. Defensively is where the team is more mediocre, as it is giving up 22 points per game and ranking No. 21 in scoring defense.

Four of the Chiefs’ five opponents have scored 20 points or more, and last week was its most noticeable defensive letdown, both because the Raiders managed a season-high against KC and because the Chiefs lost the game. Kansas City was tied 24-24 at the half with the Raiders, but it was outscored 16-8 in the final quarter which amounted to the difference in the final total. Derek Carr of the Raiders threw for 347 yards and three TDs while the Raiders picked up another 144 yards on 35 carries.

The Chiefs got a fair game out of Pat Mahomes, but he was certainly far from his best, throwing an interception, suffering three sacks, and completing just over 50 percent of his looks. The backfield and rush game was ineffective, generating just four yards-per-carry, though the Chiefs were able to utilize the ground game to manage a couple rushing touchdowns, one from Mahomes and the other on a handoff to Tyreek Hill.

Travis Kelce did work catching the ball. He led the Chiefs last week in catches (eight), yardage (108), and he scored one of the team’s two receiving touchdowns. The Chiefs had four receiving options with 40 yards or better last week, but it also allowed the Raiders to work its air game, and the Chiefs secondary surrendered three touchdowns, one apiece to the top-3 Raiders passing options.

Mahomes thus far this season has thrown 63.7 percent for completion, but he averages just 7.6 yards-per-catch. He has thrown 13 TDs with just one pick, and his six sacks (1.2 per game) are tolerable, though 35-yards is a substantial loss on those plays. Even so, Mahomes has a passer rating of 107.3, and he has rushed for 129 yards this season on 24 carries, managing 5.4 yards-per. Mahomes also leads the team in rushing touchdowns with two, while lead back Clyde Edwards-Helaire manages 4.2 yards-per-carry on his 81 attempts with a touchdown and a team-best 14 first downs.


The Buffalo Bills are 4-1 and in first place in the AFC East. Last week it suffered its first loss after starting the season 4-0. The Bills fell 16-42 to the red-hot Tennessee Titans, and this week will bring another formidable challenge and a second consecutive week as ATS underdogs.

Buffalo boasts the league’s second-most potent pass offense, generating 308 yards per game. It ranks in the bottom-third however, of rush offense, managing just 93.8 points per game (No. 27). The Bills still nearly possess a top-10 scoring offense, ranking No. 11 at 27.8 points per game.

Defensively, there have been issues aplenty. The Bills are giving up 28.4 points per game and possess a -0.6 point differential despite its winning record.

Quarterback Josh Allen is fulfilling his expectations. He has 1,589 yards while completing passes last a 69.3 percent clip. Allen also has an 8.4 yard-per-catch average, with 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions. He has been sacked twice per game (10 total) for a massive loss of 71 yards, but his passer rating is still outstanding at 113.0.

Allen’s top target has been Stefon Diggs. Diggs has 509 yards which lead the team. He also leads in total receptions (36), and he is in a four-way tie for the lead in TD Receptions with two. Diggs has 22 first down plays, while No. 2 receiver Cole Beasley is good for 16 while also ranking No. 2 in yards-after-catch. Devin Singletary has been effective out of the backfield, leading the Bills in yards-after-catch with 114 yards. He has caught 17 passes this season and is responsible for eight first downs. The Bills have essentially seven strong receiving options, which has kept teams both worn out and guessing thus far.

If Buffalo can improve its defensive execution, it could sneak away with a victory as a home underdog this week.

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