NFL Handicapping: Running Down the Totals For Week 5

Indianapolis Colts Week 5 Betting Totals
The colts and chiefs are currently lined at 44 and the over looks a little appealing
When you look at a game, something has to give. Such is the case with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Indianapolis Colts.  The total is 44, which is low for a Colts game, especially at home, but a little higher than you like with the Chiefs.  The over for the Chiefs is 1-2, while for the Colts is 3-1. The Chiefs have been relying on defense and special teams, giving up 12.7 points and 313 total yards. The Chiefs, thanks mostly for the 31 points they scored against the 49ers average 22.7 points a game and 322 yards.

The Colts have been an enigma this season. With one of the best offensive players in the game in quarterback Peyton Manning, they Colts score an average of 29.2 points on 411 total yards. The Colts are missing two of their best receivers, but Manning still produces. He has to because the defense has been bad this season, giving up 23 points a game and 367 yards. Being at home on the fast track, adds to the Colts ability to score and push the total. The Chiefs have had two weeks to get their offense set to attack the Colts. You have to think both sides will get into the end zone a few times.

Here is a look at the rest of the week:  Remember you can compare odds for all the week 5 games on our NFL odds page of the site.

Denver at Baltimore (38 ½): The over for the Broncos is 2-2, while the Ravens is 1-3.The Broncos score an average of 21.7 points a game and gain 394 total yards. Most of those yards are passing as they average 339 passing yards and only 55 rushing yards. The Broncos give up 21.2 points a game and 323 total yards. It’s no secret the Ravens are a defense-first team, giving up only 13.7 points a game and 236 total yards on only 52 plays. The Ravens gain 306 yards on offense, but score only an average of 15.2 yards a game.

Jacksonville at Buffalo (40): Both teams total record is 2-2. The Bills last two games have gone over the total and it’s a lack of defense that has pushed the total. The Bills average giving up 31 points a game and give up 383 yards on defense. On offense, the Bills only average 15.2 points a game and gain only 237 total yards on 49 plays. The Jaguars have been nearly as bad on offense, scoring an average of 17.7 points, while giving up 27.7 points. The Jaguars give up 405 total yards.

St. Louis at Detroit (42 ½): The Rams have been a feisty team, but not an extremely prolific offensive team. They average 19.2 points a game and 312 total yards, while giving up only 13 points and 347 yards. They rush the ball nearly 30 times a game, which tends to shorten the game. The Lions have been more explosive, scoring 20.5 points and 334 total yards. But their defense gives up 26.5 points and 375 yards. They give up 134 yards rushing for a 4.9 yards per attempt. Detroit running back Jahvid Best is a question mark to play this week, but the Lions will rely on Kevin Smith. The status for Rams running back Steven Jackson is also unclear, so that might be a factor.

Atlanta at Cleveland (40 ½): The Falcons have relied on their ground game, rushing an average of 37 times a game and gaining 145 yards. The Falcons are a 50-50 percent pass-run team, which tends to lead to unders. The over for Atlanta is 2-2 so far. They have been good defensively, giving up 15 points a game and 320 yards. And that fits right in with the Browns, so score only 17 points a game and gain 309 yards. But the Browns also run the ball, averaging 28 carries a game. The Browns also only average 59 plays a game. They only allow 59 plays, also and give up 19.2 points a game. All those numbers point to an under.

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (38): The over for Tampa Bay is 1-2 and the only reason the Bucs last game went over was that the Steelers put on a beating . The Bucs average 16.7 points and only 288 yards on 58 plays a game. Their defense, aside from the Steelers game, has been good, giving up an average of 16.7 points and 335 yards on 57 plays. The Bengals average 19.7 points on 350 yards. Their defense has given up 19.5 points a game and given up 299 yards.

Chicago at Carolina (35 ½): Here are two teams that are struggling scoring. The over for both squads is 1-3. The Bears average only 50 plays a game and 289 yards and 17.2 points a game. Their defense has been up to the challenge, giving up only 17 points a game. The Panthers average only 11.5 points a game. Twice, they were held to under 10 points. They run only 55 plays a game and 258 total yards. Their defense has not been as good as the Bears, giving up 21.7 points and 334 total yards.

Green Bay at Washington (43 ½):The Packers have the reputation for being a good offensive team. And there is some truth to that as they average 26.5 points a game on 321 total yards. But the over for the Packers is 1-3. That is because their defense has been effective, limited teams to 18.2 points and 303 total yards on 56 plays. The over for the Redskins is 2-2. They have been a sporadic team on offense, scoring an average of 18.2 points. Their defense has given up only 19.7 points a game, but has been torched for an average of 406 yards. It’s hard to imagine that if the Packers come close to 400 yards that they will post some points.

New York Giants at Houston (47 ½): Except for the one game against the Cowboys, the Texans are an over machine, going 3-1. In the three other games, they have topped 30 points, while giving up more than 20 points. The Giants have been a curious team this season. They had a good defensive game against the Bears, but it is unlikely that they will get that kind of pass rush on the Texans. On the road, the Bears are averaging giving up 38 points game and 410 yards. On offense, they are averaging 18 points and 369 yards. The numbers are off the charts for the Texans, scoring 27 points a game, while averaging 415 total yards on offense. Their defense has given up some similar numbers, allowing 25.5 points and 408 total yards. There is nothing to think that both teams will not continue to score here.

New Orleans at Arizona (45 ½): The over for Arizona is 3-1, but that’s mainly because of their lack of defense. If this game goes over, it will be that the Saints were able to exploit the Cardinals defense, which gives up an average of 29.5 points and 388 total yards on 70 plays. The Saints have not really clicked on offense yet this season, averaging 19.7 points a game. They average only 73 yards rushing for a 3.1 per attempt average. Without Reggie Bush, the running game may suffer some. The Cardinals average only 14.5 point and 249 total yards on 50 plays. Also, the Cardinals have quarterback issues. They have not announced if they will stay with inconsistent Derek Anderson or rookie Max Hall. That spells trouble for the Cardinals offense.

San Diego at Oakland (45): The over for both of these teams is 3-1. After a bad opening week, the Chargers have found their offense and are averaging 28.2 points and 451 yards a game. Their defense has given up 17.7 and only 235 yards per game. The Raiders defense may not pose much a problem for Chargers quarterback Phillip Rivers as they are giving up 26.7 points a game. The Raiders are scoring 19 points a game, but are averaging rushing the ball 31 times a game for an average of 140 yards. The Chargers rush defense is giving up only 80 yards per game. The Chargers may force the Raiders into a passing game if they get an early lead and that will tend to push the over.

Tennessee at Dallas (41 1/2): The Titans rely on their ground game as they rush the ball 31 times a game for 133 yards and only pass it 24 times a game. They average 24.5 points on 55 plays a game. Those numbers tend to limit scoring. The Cowboys have had their problems scoring until they hit the defensive sieve that is the Houston Texans. The question is did they find an offense or just faced a poor defense. The Cowboys are averaging 18 points a game and gain 392 yards, 312 of which is passing. Their defense has played well, overall, giving up 17.7 points and 299 total yards on 52 plays. Most of the indicators tend to point to the under in this game.

Philadelphia at San Francisco (38):The Eagles will be without Michael Vick and that is a huge question as Kevin Kolb did not look good coming in the game. But after a week of practice, he might fare better. The Niners, which were expected to show improvement this year, are 0-4 and a blunder on defense snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory. At home, they played the Saints tough. The question is will the Niners team that scores 13 points a game show up or the one at home that scored 22 points a game. They have been averaging on defense giving up 25.7 points. It’s hard to judge the Eagles as they have been averaging 23.7 points a game. But without Vick, can they keep up the offensive pressure?

Minnesota at New York Jets (37 ½): The Vikings acquired receiver Randy Moss. The question is how fast he will show dividends for the Vikings. No better place than Monday Night Football. The Vikings average 14.3 points a game, while giving up 12.7. Moss will give Brett Favre more options on offense and the space may open up a bit more for Adrian Peterson. The Jets have shown some offense, albeit it was against the Patriots and the Bills. They will have a tougher time against the Vikings. The Jets average 26.5 points and give up 15.2 points. This is still a low number and if Moss is at all effective, it will not be hard to get to the over here.

Maddux Sports is currently on a 76% NFL picks run and figures to crush the books once again in week 5.  Get our board with our weekly NFL picks for this week which includes our 20 unit AFC Game of the Year.

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