Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
Sunday, November 3, 2013, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Dallas -10 1/2
Current Line: Dallas -11 (+115)
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 49 1/2
Opening Money Line: Cowboys -480 / Vikings +375
Current Money Line: Cowboys -525 / Vikings +400
Despite another agonizing loss last week the Dallas Cowboys are 4-4 and still in first place in the NFC East midway through the season. The Cowboys host the 1-6 Minnesota Vikings Sunday. It is the only home game for the Cowboys until Thanksgiving Day. Since 2001, Minnesota is 3-1 against Dallas with all three wins coming in Minneapolis. The Vikings won the last meeting 24-21 in 2010. The Vikings crushed the Cowboys 34-3 in the NFC divisional playoffs earlier in 2010.
Minnesota is coached by Leslie Frasier. The only win for the Vikings came over teh Pittsburgh Steelers 34-27 in London. Minnesota has road losses at the Detroit Lions 34-24, Chicago Bears 31-30, and the New York Giants 23-7, along with home losses to the Cleveland Browns 31-27, Carolina Panthers 35-10 and last week against the Green Bay Packers 44-31. The Vikings have lost 3 straight games and might be the worst NFL team that doesn’t play in North or Central Florida. Minnesota is 2-5 ATS and the total is 6-1 this season. The Vikings were 7.5 underdogs at home to the Packers and the total was 47.5.
The Vikings opened the game against the Packers with an NFL record tying 109 yard kick return for a touchdown by Cordarrelle Patterson. Green Bay tied it up at 7 a few minutes later. In the second quarter, the teams exchanged field goals to start the quarter. Green Bay took a 24-10 lead on two big plays, a 76 yard touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to Jordy Nelson and a 93 yard punt return for a touchdown my Micah Hyde. Adrian Peterson scored on an 8 yard touchdown run for the Vikings to make it 24-17 at halftime. The Packers scored 17 straight points to take a 41-17 early in the fourth. Minnesota scored to make it 41-24, and Green Bay would add a field goal to make it 44-24. The Vikings added a late cosmetic touchdown to make the final 44-31. The Packers had 464 total yards including 282 passing and 182 rushing yards. The Vikings had 243 total yards including 132 passing and 111 rushing. Neither team had a turnover but Green Bay had 6 penalties for 120 yards and Minnesota had 7 for 46.
Minnesota is being outscored 32-23 this season. The Vikings are #30 in points allowed. Minnesota is averaging 305.9 total yards including 202.6 passing and 103.3 rushing yards. The Vikings are #29 in total offense and #27 in passing. On defense, Minnesota is allowing 402.7 yards per game including 289 passing and 113.7 rushing yards. The Vikings are #31 in total defense and #29 against the pass. Minnesota is -2 in turnovers. The Vikings are 40/103 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 59/112. Minnesota has forced 14 sacks and allowed 18 this season. The Vikings have 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns and have allowed 2 this season. Minnesota averages 48 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 65.
The Vikings are one of four teams to have used three quarterbacks this season along with the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, and Cleveland Browns. Christian Ponder started the season as the quarterback but then injured his ribs. Matt Cassel started a couple of games and led the Vikings to their only win this season. Minnesota signed Josh Freeman after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers released him. Freeman started against the Giants but was completely ineffective. He suffered a concussion in that game and missed last week. Ponder started last week and will start against Dallas as well. Freeman is questionable. Ponder has completed 60.3% of his passes for 836 yards with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions along with 20 carries for 114 yards and 3 touchdowns. Cassel has completed 69.6% of his passes for 489 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions along with 12 rushing yards. Freeman was 20/53 for 190 yards with a pick against the Giants in his only action for the Vikings. He did start 3 games for the Buccs before they released him.
Adrian Peterson has 128 carries for 571 yards and 6 touchdowns along with 19 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Jerome Simpson has 27 catches for 422 yards. Greg Jennings has 25 catches for 336 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with a knee injury. Tight end Kyle Rudolph has 28 catches for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns. Patterson has 13 catches for 133 yards. Kicker Blair Walsh is probable with a hamstring injury. Eight defensive players are listed on the injury report for the Vikings.
Dallas is coached by Jason Garrett. The Cowboys have 4 losses by a total of 14 points, with road losses at the Kansas City Chiefs 17-16, the San Diego Chargers 30-21 and last week at the Detroit Lions 31-30, along with a home loss to the Denver Broncos 51-48. Dallas has home wins over the New York Giants 36-31, St. Louis Rams 31-7, and Washington Redskins 31-16, along with a road win at the Philadelphia Eagles 17-3. The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS and the total is 4-4. Dallas was a 3 point underdog at Detroit and the total was 51.
The Lions took a 7-0 lead at the end of the first against the Cowboys. Dallas would score 10 points in the second quarter to take a 10-7 lead into the locker room. The touchdown was set up by a 74 yard interception return to the Lions’ 4 yard line by linebacker Sean Lee, his second interception of the quarter. Dallas would add another field goal in the third quarter to take a 13-7 lead into the fourth. The game looked like it would go way under the 51 point total but the fourth quarter featured 41 combined points by the teams.
Dallas quarterback Tony Romo entered the fourth quarter with only 88 passing yards and a touchdown. After the Lions kicked a field goal to cut the lead to 13-10, Romo threw a 60 yard touchdown pass to Terrance Williams to put the Cowboys up 20-10. Detroit scored to make it 20-17. Romo threw another 50 yard touchdown pass to Dez Bryant. to make it 27-17. Detroit scored again to make it 27-24. Dallas kicked a field goal with 1:02 left to make it 30-24. The Lions used all of their timeouts on the Dallas field goal drive. After a touchback, Detroit started from their own 20. They drove all the way down the field and scored with 12 seconds left on a quarterback keeper from Matthew Stafford when it looked like he was going to clock it on first and goal at the one. Dallas had one more play to get into field goal range and tried a couple of laterals but nothing really happened. It was another excrutiating loss for the Cowboys who have at least 2 or 3 of these types of losses every year.
When Stafford scored, Dallas receiver Bryant was seen getting into a heated argument with tight end Jason Witten and the two had to be separated by injured defensive end DeMarcus Ware as it looked like they would get into blows. Bryant was earlier seen yelling at Romo and some of the coaches.
Detroit had 623 total yards including 488 passing yards from Stafford. It was the fourth time this season Dallas has given up 400 yards passing in just 8 games. Stafford threw a touchdown and had 2 interceptions in addition to the touchdown run. Receiver Calvin Johnson had 14 catches for 329 yards and a touchdown. Dallas had 268 total yards including 206 passing yards. The Lions had 4 turnovers and 8 penalties for 61 yards. The Cowboys became only the second team who had a turnover margin of +4 or better and still lost in the last 57 games in which that occurred.
Dallas is outscoring teams 29-23 this season. The Cowboys are #4 in scoring. Dallas is averaging 341.9 total yards including 261.2 passing and 80.6 rushing yards. The Cowboys are #8 in passing and #27 in rushing. On defense, Dallas is allowing 422.5 total yards per game including 315.4 passing and 107.1 rushing yards. The Cowboys are last in total and pass defense . Dallas is +9 in turnovers. The Cowboys are 33/93 on third down conversions and have yet to attempt a fourth down conversion this season. Cowboy opponents are 45/117 on third and fourth down conversions. The Cowboys have forced 21 sacks and allowed 16 this season. Dallas has 4 defensive special teams touchdowns this season and hasn’t allowed any. The Cowboys average 53 penalty yards per game and opponents average 60.
Romo has completed 66.1% of his passes for 2,216 yards with 18 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 12 carries for 32 yards. He has been sacked 16 times this season. Running back DeMarco Murray has 91 carries for 428 yards and 3 touchdowns along with 24 catches for 164 yards. He is probable with a knee injury after missing the last two games. Joseph Randle, Phillip Tanner and Lance Dunbar have been splitting the carries since Murray was injured but none have been effective. Randle and Tanner each have a rushing touchdown. Dunbar is probable with a hamstring injury.
Bryant has 45 catches, 641 yards and 8 touchdowns. Witten has 37 catches, 403 yards and 3 touchdowns. Williams has 26 catches for 444 yards and 4 touchdowns. Cole Beasley has 19 catches for 175 yards and a touchdown. Miles Austin has 15 catches for 125 yards. He is doubtful with a hamstring injury. Receiver Dwayne Harris has a touchdown catch plus a punt return for a touchdown. He is probable with a hip injury. The Cowboys’ defense is decimated by injuries especially on the defensive line, with 13 players listed on the injury report, including key players such as DE George Selvie, safety Barry Church, DT Jason Hatcher, DE Ware, Lb DeVonte Holloman, CB Morris Claiborne, and DE Anthony Spencer. Ware, Holloman, Claiborne and Hatcher are all doubtful or out.
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS after passing for 150 yards or less, 6-2-2 after allowing 150 rushing yards or more, 3-7 in road games, 1-4 after scoring more than 30 points, after allowing more than 350 total yards, and overall, 1-4-1 in November, 1-5 against NFC teams, and 0-5 on fieldturf. The under is 5-2 in the last 7 in this series. The Vikings have covered in 7 of the last 8 against the Cowboys.
Dallas is 5-0 ATS after rushing for less than 90 yards, against NFC teams, and on fieldturf, 4-0 after a straight up loss, at home, and overall, 5-1 after a cover, 7-2 after allowing more than 30 points, 4-12 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 2-7 against teams with losing road records, 1-4 in week 9, 1-5 against teams with losing records, and 1-5 in November. The favorite covered the last 9 in this series and the home team has covered the last 4 between the Cowboys and Vikings.
This should be a high scoring game with two bad defensive teams. Dallas usually beats up on bad teams at home and this should be no exception. I see a similar score to last week’s Minnesota-Green Bay game. The Vikings will score enough to stay in range of the cover but the Cowboys still win by double digits.
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