Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers
Candlestick Park – San Francisco, California
Sunday, November 10, 2013, 4:05 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: San Francisco -6 1/2
Current Line: San Francisco -6
Opening Total: 41 1/2
Current Total 43
Opening Money Line: 49ers -250 / Panthers +210
Current Money Line: 49ers -245 / Panthers +205
The 5-3 Carolina Panthers and 6-2 San Francisco 49ers are two of the hottest teams in football outside of the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. The Panthers have won four straight games after a 1-3 start, and the 49ers have won 5 straight games after a 1-2 start as they meet Sunday in San Francisco. Yet, neither team leads their division. The Panthers are a game behind the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South, and the 49ers are a game behind the 8-1 Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West. San Francisco would currently be the #5 seed in the NFC playoffs, and Carolina holds the tiebreaker over the 5-3 Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, and Green Bay Packers for the #6 seed.
Since 2001, Carolina leads the series 3-2 against San Francisco. The Panthers have won 3 straight games in the series including a 23-20 win in Charlotte in 2010, which was the last meeting between the teams. Carolina hasn’t played in San Francisco since 2004.
Carolina is coached by Ron Rivera. The Panthers have losses at home to the Seahawks 12-7, and road losses at the Buffalo Bills 24-23 and the Arizona Cardinals 22-6. Carolina hasn’t lost since that Arizona game. The Panthers have home wins over the New York Giants 38-0, St. Louis Rams 30-15, and last week against the Atlanta Falcons 34-10, along with road wins at the Minnesota Vikings 35-10 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-13. Carolina is 5-3 ATS and the total is 4-4 this season. The Panthers easily covered the 10 point spread against the Falcons and the game went under 46.5 points.
The first half was back and forth between the Falcons and Panthers. Carolina took a 14-10 lead into halftime. The Panthers kicked a 55 yard field goal in the third quarter to make it 17-10. Carolina scored 17 points in the fourth quarter including a 38 yard pick six to make the final 34-10. The Falcons had 7 penalties for 59 yards and 4 turnovers while the Panthers had two turnovers. Carolina had 373 total yards including 242 passing yards. Atlanta had 289 total yards and 12 first downs.
Carolina is outscoring teams 26-13 this season. The Panthers are #2 in the league in points allowed and #12 in scoring. Carolina is averaging 332.8 total yards per game on offense including 202.6 passing and 130.1 rushing yards. The Panthers are 320 in total offense, #25 in passing but #8 in rushing. On defense, Carolina is allowing 299.9 yards per game including 220.8 passing and 79.1 rushing yards. The Panthers are #2 in rush defense, #3 in total defense and #10 against the pass. Carolina is +8 in turnovers. The Panthers are 52/107 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 38/109. Carolina has forced 23 sacks and allowed 22 this season. The Panthers are averaging 34:01 minutes on time of possession. Carolina is averaging 45 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 54.
Quarterback Cam Newton has completed 64.4% of his passes for 1,801 yards with 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 55 carries for 251 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has been sacked 22 times this season. This is largely due to the fact that the offensive line has four players out or on injured reserve.
Running back DeAngelo Williams has 127 carries for 519 yards and a touchdown, along with 15 catches for 133 yards. Mike Tolbert has 57 carries, 208 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 13 catches for 83 yards and two touchdowns. Tight end Greg Olsen has 34 catches, 426 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Steve Smith has 36 catches, 387 yards and 3 touchdowns. Ted Ginn has 21 catches, 367 yards and 2 touchdowns. Brandon LaFell has 27 catches, 352 yards and 3 touchdowns. receiver Marvin McNutt is questionable with an ankle injury The Panthers have 4 players listed on the injury report including 3 defensive backs.
San Francisco is coached by Jim Harbaugh. The 49ers have losses at the Seattle Seahawks 29-3 and at home against the Indianapolis Colts 27-7. San Francisco has home wins over the Packers 34-28, Houston Texans 34-3, and Arizona Cardinals 32-20, along with road wins at the Rams 35-11 , and Tennessee Titans 31-17, plus a 42-10 win against the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. The 49ers are 6-2 ATS and the total is 5-3 this season. San Francisco was a 16 point favorite against Jacksonville and the total was 40.
San Francisco jumped out to a 28-0 lead against the hapless Jaguars in London. The Jaguars scored 10 straight to pull within 18 points but would not score again. The 49ers would add 14 more points to rout the Jaguars 42-10. Jacksonville is one of two NFL teams, along with the Buccaneers who are still looking for their first win. The Jaguars had 318 total yards including 228 passing yards. The 49ers had 398 total yards including 221 rushing yards. Each team had one turnover.
San Francisco is outscoring teams 27-18 this season. The 49ers are #5 in scoring and #4 in points allowed. San Francisco is averaging 342.9 yards per game including 189.9 passing and 153 rushing yards. The 49ers lead the league in rushing but are last in passing. It turns out they are #16 in total offense. On defense, San Francisco is allowing 325.1 total yards including 220.5 passing and 104.6 rushing yards. The 49ers are 11th or better in all three categories. San Francisco is +4 in turnovers. San Francisco is 49/115 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 43/123. The 49ers have forced 17 sacks and allowed 15 this season. San Francisco has 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season. The 49ers average 59 penalty yards per game and opponents average 61.
Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has completed 57.1% of his passes for 1,584 yards with 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 49 carries, 294 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has been sacked 15 times this season. Running back Frank Gore has 146 carries for 618 yards with 7 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 96 yards. Gore is probable with an ankle injury. Kendall Hunter has 43 carries for 210 yards with 3 touchdowns, along with 2 catches. Anthony Dixon has only 35 rushing yards, but does have two rushing touchdowns this season.
The 49ers have been successful this season despite injuries to key members of the receiving corps. Mario Manningham is expected to make his season debut Sunday after tearing his ACL and PCL last year. Michael Crabtree started practicing this week after missing the first half of the season with a torn Achilles’ tendon but is out until at least next week. Anquan Boldin is the leading receiver for the 49ers so far without Manningham or Crabtree. Boldin has 38 catches for 511 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Vernon Davis has 29 catches for 518 yards and 7 touchdowns. Bruce Miller and Kyle Williams will also get some catches. Williams is probable with a knee injury. Jonathan Baldwin is questionable with an illness. Quinton Patton is out with a foot injury. Nine defensive players are listed on the injury report. However, the defense gets a boost with the return of Pro Bowl linebacker Aldon Smith who missed the last several weeks while he went into rehab following a DUI arrest in September.
Carolina is 4-0 ATS overall and against NFC teams, 5-1 after gaining more than 350 total yards, 4-1 on grass and after a straight up win of 14 points or more, 6-2 after a straight up win and a cover, 8-3 on the road, and 1-5 after a bye week. The over is 10-2 in the last 12 in this series including 6-1 in San Francisco. The Panthers are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 against the 49ers and 7-1 in San Francisco.
San Francisco is 5-0 ATS after rushing for 150 yards or more, overall and after allowing 15 points or less, 4-0 after scoring more than 30 points, after a straight up and after a cover, 5-1 against NFC teams, 20-6-1 after gaining more than 350 total yards, 23-7-1 on grass, 6-2 in November, 18-7-1 at home, 5-2 against teams with winning road records, and after a straight up win of 14 points or more. The favorite 5-2 ATS in this series recently and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
These two teams are very similar. They have great defenses and depend on the rushing attack for most of their offense. Carolina has had success against San Francisco but I don’t know how much that really means. Most of those games happened when Kerry Collins and/or Jake Delhomme were the quarterbacks for the Panthers. I think the 49ers win a close low scoring game but six points seems like a lot.
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