Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, December 16, 2012, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Sun Life Stadium – Miami Gardens, Florida
Opening Line: Miami -7
Current Line: Miami -7 1/2
Opening Total: 37 1/2
Current Total: 37 1/2
Opening Money Line: Dolphins -325 / Jaguars +275
Current Money Line: Dolphins -350 / Jaguars +290
The 5-8 Miami Dolphins are still technically alive for the last playoff spot in the AFC, but they have to win out and get a lot of help. The Dolphins will host the 2-11 Jacksonville Jaguars, who are tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the worst record in the league.
Miami is coached by Joe Philbin. The Dolphins have lost 5 of their last six games including two in a row. Miami lost 27-13 last week at the San Francisco 49ers. Miami is 6-7 ATS and the total is 5-8 this season.
Jacksonville is coached by Mike Mularkey. The Jaguars have lost 2 straight games as well, including 17-10 last week at home against the New York Jets. Jacksonville is 6-7 ATS and the total is also 6-7 this season.
Despite being in the same state, Jacksonville and Miami have only played 4 times since 2001. The series is tied 2-2. The two Sunshine State teams are in different divisions in the AFC. Miami won the last meeting 14-10 at home in 2009.
Jacksonville averages 283.5 yards per game on offense, including 201.3 passing yards and 82.2 rushing yards. The Jaguars are being outscored 28-17. Jacksonville is #31 in total offense, #24 in passing, #29 in rushing, and #30 in scoring. The Jags are even in turnovers. Jacksonville has forced 14 sacks and allowed 40 this season. The Jaguars are 54/188 on third and fourth down conversions. Jacksonville is allowing 394.5 yards per game on defense, including 248.8 passing yards and 145.7 rushing yards. The Jaguars are 24th or worse in all defensive categories.
Quarterback Blaine Gabbert is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Chad Henne has replaced him. Henne has completed 51.6% of his passes for 1,217 yards with 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He has been sacked 18 times but does have a rushing touchdown.
Including Gabbert, the top four rushers are out Sunday for the Jaguars. Maurice Jones-Drew and Jalen Parmele are both out for the season. Rashad Jennings is out with a concussion. That leaves Montell Owens as the only healthy back. Owens has 21 carries, 120 yards and a touchdown, along with 3 catches for 30 yards. Henne has 12 carries, but no other Jag has more than 4 carries.
The receiving corps is almost as decimated as the running backs. Leading receiver Cecil Shorts is probable with a concussion after missing the Jets game. Shorts has 43 catches, 824 yards and 7 touchdowns. Laurent Robinson is out for the season with a concussion. Justin Blackmon has 45 catches, 614 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tight end Marcedes Lewis has 38 catches, 402 yards and 4 touchdowns. Michael Spurlock and Mike Thomas will likely get more targets with so many receivers banged up or out. The Jaguars have 24 players listed on the injury report, including 16 players that are out.
Miami is averaging 310.6 yards per game on offense, including 203.2 passing and 107.4 rushing yards. The Dolphins are being outscored 21-19 this season. Miami is -11 in turnovers. The Dolphins have forced 33 sacks and allowed 24 this season. Miami is 61/167 on third and fourth down conversions. On defense, the Dolphins are allowing 352.7 yards per game, including 250.6 passing and 102.1 rushing yards. Miami is #10 in rush defense, and #13 in points allowed. The Dolphins have 3 special teams touchdowns this season.
Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill has completed 57.3% of his passes for 2,709 yards with 8 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, along with 107 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Tannehill has been sacked 25 times this season. Though his numbers aren’t terrible, they suffer in comparison to the spectacular numbers fellow rookie QB’s Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are putting up this season.
Reggie Bush has 179 carries, 791 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 29 catches for 227 yards. Daniel Thomas has 90 carries, 319 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 15 catches for 156 yards. Lamar Miller and Javorskie Lane will also get a few carries. Lane is probable with a knee injury. Marcus Thigpen has a punt return and kickoff return both for touchdowns Receiver Brian Hartline has 62 catches, 925 yards and a touchdown. Davone Bess has 61 catches, 778 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Anthony Fasano has 30 catches, 233 yards and 4 touchdowns. Fullback Charles Clay has 16 catches, 204 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with a rib injury. Fifteen Dolphins are on the injury report, including 7 defensive players.
Jacksonville is 6-1 ATS in road games, 4-1 after allowing 150 rushing yards or more, 5-2 after scoring 15 points or less, 2-5 in Week 15, 2-6 in December, and 0-3-1 after allowing 150 passing yards or less. The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in this series.
Miami is 5-2 ATS after gaining less than 250 yards, 9-4 after a straight up loss, 20-42-2 at home against teams with losing road records, and 24-52-1 at home. The favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 in this series.
Neither one of these teams really lights up the scoreboard on a regular basis. The Dolphins do have some semblance of a defense, and seemingly have more to play for. I like the Dolphins in a low scoring game.
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