NFL Betting Picks Week Nine: Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers

Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers
Bank Of America Stadium – Charlotte, North Carolina
Sunday, November 8, 2015, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Green Bay -1 1/2
Current Line: Green Bay -2 1/2 (-120)
Opening Total: 46
Current Total: 46
Opening Money Line: Packers -140 / Panthers +120
Current Money Line: Packers -150 / Panthers +130

Green Bay is a 2.5 point road favorite at Carolina in a battle of the best teams in the NFC.
Green Bay is a 2.5 point road favorite at Carolina in a battle of the best teams in the NFC.

The 7-0 Carolina Panthers are one of a record four undefeated teams left along with the New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos. The Panthers are the only undefeated team left in the NFC as they host the 6-1 Green Bay Packers Sunday. Carolina is in first place in the NFC South over the 6-2 Atlanta Falcons. Green Bay leads the NFC North over the 5-2 Minnesota Vikings.

Green Bay leads the series 9-4 against Carolina. The Packers have won three of the last four against the Panthers. Green Bay won last year at home 38-17.

Green Bay is coached by Mike McCarthy. The Packers have home wins over the Seattle Seahawks 27-17, Kansas City Chiefs 38-28, St. Louis Rams 24-10 and San Diego Chargers 27-20, along with road wins at the Chicago Bears 31-23 and San Francisco 49ers 17-3. Green Bay lost their first game of the season last week 29-10 at the Denver Broncos.

The Packers were 2.5 point favorites at the Broncos and the total was 46. Denver jumped out to a 17-0 lead early, but Green Bay cut the lead to 17-10 midway through the third. However, Denver would score the last 12 points of the game including a safety. The Broncos had 500 total yards to just 140 for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers threw for only 77 yards. Green Bay is 5-2 ATS and the total is 2-5 this season.

Carolina is coached by Ron Rivera. Carolina has road wins at the Jaguars 20-9, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37-23 and Seattle Seahawks 27-23. The Panthers also have home wins over the Houston Texans 24-17, New Orleans Saints 27-22, Philadelphia Eagles 27-16 and last Monday against the Indianapolis Colts 29-26 in overtime.

Carolina was a 5 point favorite against Indianapolis and the total was 45.5. The first three quarters were played in a driving rainstorm that turned the field into a muddy mess. Carolina led 23-6 early in the fourth. However, the Colts came back to force overtime. Each team kicked a field goal in overtime. However, Indy quarterback Andrew Luck threw his third interception of the game in his own territory and the Panthers would kick the game winning field goal to remain undefeated. The teams combined for 7 turnovers in a sloppy game. Carolina is 5-2 ATS and the total is 4-2-1 this season.

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Green Bay is outscoring teams 25-19 this season. The Packers are #10 in scoring and #7 in points allowed. Green Bay is averaging 332 yards per game on offense including 210 passing and 122 rushing yards. The Packers are #28 in total offense and #27 in passing. On defense, the Packers are allowing 376 yards per game including 251 passing and 124 rushing yards. The Packers are 31/82 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 46/107. Green Bay has forced 23 sacks and has allowed 14 this season. The Packers are +7 in turnovers with a defensive touchdown.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 67.6% of his passes for 1,568 yards along with 15 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 31 carries for 191 yards.

Running back Eddie Lacy has 78 carries for 298 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 10 catches for 92 yards. James Starks has 68 carries for 295 yards and a touchdown along with 13 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver Randall Cobb has 36 catches for 377 yards and 4 touchdowns. James Jones has 22 catches for 426 yards and 6 touchdowns. Davante Adams has 10 catches for 100 yards. Tight end Richard Rodgers  has 23 catches for 205 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ty Montgomery has 15 catches for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is doubtful with an ankle injury. Receiver Jordy Nelson is out for the season with a torn ACL suffered during the pre-season. Eight defensive players are listed on the injury report.

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Carolina is outscoring teams 27-19 this season. The Panthers are #4 in scoring and #10 in points allowed. Carolina is averaging 349 total yards per game including 205 passing and 144 rushing. The Panthers are #1 in rushing but #29 in passing. On defense, Carolina allows 343 total yards including 229 passing and 114 rushing yards. The Panthers are #10 in total defense and #7 in pass defense. Carolina is 34/93 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 48/121. The Panthers have forced 20 sacks and allowed 13 this season. Carolina is +5 in turnovers. The Panthers have 3 defensive touchdowns and have allowed a special teams touchdown.

Quarterback Cam Newton has completed 54.2% of his passes for 1,523 yards with 11 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 64 carries for 286 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Those numbers might not seem that impressive but the Panthers don’t really have a number one receiver after Kelvin Benjamin suffered a torn ACL in the pre-season.

Tight end Greg Olsen has 33 catches for 518 yards with 4 touchdowns. Receiver Ted Ginn, Jr. has 20 catches for 343 yards and 3 touchdowns. Corey Brown has 14 catches for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns. Brenton Bersin, Jerricho Cotchery and Ed Dickson will also get some catches, but none has more than 8 this season.

Running back Jonathan Stewart has 127 carries for 505 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 7 catches. Mike Tolbert and Cameron Artis-Payne will also get some carries. Seven defensive players are listed on the injury report, as are four offensive linemen.

Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS after a straight up loss, 5-0 against NFC teams, 5-1 after a straight up loss of 14 points or more, 4-1-1 after allowing 150 rushing yards or more, 4-1 in road games, 7-2-1 after failing to cover, 6-2 overall, 8-3-1 against teams with winning records, 5-2 in Week Nine, 42-19-1 on grass, 11-5-1 after scoring less than 15 points, 36-17-1 after allowing more than 350 total yards and 3-8 in November. The last five games in this series have gone over the total.

Carolina is 5-0 ATS after gaining more than 350 total yards, 4-1 after failing to cover, 5-2 after a straight up win, overall, against NFC teams, and on grass, and 1-4 in November. The underdog is 8-3-1 ATS in this series recently.

Carolina is undefeated and yet is a home underdog. The Panthers have played a lot of close games and will be at least two games clear of every team in the NFC with a win Sunday against Green Bay. Surprisingly, Green bay has struggled on offense especially in the passing game. Still, I think the Packers are a better team top to bottom and I like them to win on the road.

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