NFL Betting Picks Week Eight: Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs From London

Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, November 1, 2015, 9:30 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Wembley Stadium – London, England
Opening Line: Kansas City -3 1/2
Current Line: Kansas City -3
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 45
Opening Money Line: Chiefs -245 / Lions +205
Current Money Line: Chiefs -170 / Lions +150

Kansas City is a 3 point favorite against Detroit Sunday in London.
Kansas City is a 3 point favorite against Detroit Sunday in London.

The 1-6 Detroit Lions and 2-5 Kansas City Chiefs play Sunday in London, the last of three such games this season across the pond. Both teams are looking for a win before their bye next week. Detroit is in last place in the NFC North Division and Kansas City is tied for last place in the AFC West with the San Diego Chargers.

Kansas City leads the series 7-5 against Detroit. The Lions have won two straight games in the series after a four game losing streak to the Chiefs. Both of those wins were in Detroit including a 48-3 thrashing in 2011, the last time they played.

Detroit is coached by Jim Caldwell. The Lions’ only win came at home over the Chicago Bears 37-34. The Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans are the only other one win teams in the NFL. Detroit has road losses at the San Diego Chargers 33-28, Minnesota Vikings 26-16, and Seattle Seahawks 13-10, along with home losses to the Denver Broncos 24-12, Arizona Cardinals 42-17 and last week against the Vikings 28-19.

Detroit was a one point favorite against Minnesota and the total was 44.5. The Lions took a 14-3 lead at the end of the first quarter. The teams exchanged field goals to open the second quarter. However, Minnesota would score 22 unanswered points to take a 28-17 lead with 14:10 left in the fourth. Detroit scored a safety to make the final 28-19. The Lions had 274 total yards to 425 for the Vikings. Detroit is 1-6 ATS and the total is 4-3 this season.

Kansas City is coached by Andy Reid. The Chiefs have a road win over the Houston Texans 27-20 and last week at home over the Pittsburgh Steelers 23-13. The win over Pittsburgh snapped a five game losing streak for Kansas City. The Chiefs have home losses to the Broncos 31-24 and Bears 18-17, along with road losses at the Green Bay Packers 38-28, Cincinnati Bengals 36-21 and Vikings 16-10. The Broncos, Packers and Bengals are all among the five undefeated teams left in the NFL.

Kansas City was a 3.5 point favorite against Pittsburgh and the total was 41.5. The Steelers had to start third string quarterback Landry Jones because of injuries to Ben Roethlisberger and Michael Vick. The two teams exchanged field goals in the first quarter. Kansas City kicked two field goals in the second quarter to take a 9-3 lead into halftime. Each team scored a touchdown in the third quarter to make it 16-10 Chiefs entering the fourth. Pittsburgh kicked a field goal early in the fourth to make it 16-13. Kansas City put the game away with an 84 yard touchdown drive on their next possession. A Pittsburgh fumble ended hopes of a comeback. It was the third Steeler turnover of the game. The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS and the total is 4-3 this season.

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Detroit is being outscored 29-20 this season. The Lions are #29 in both scoring and points allowed. Detroit is averaging 347 yards per game on offense including 279 passing and 68 rushing yards. The Lions are #20 in total offense and last in rushing. The passing game is #7. On defense, Detroit is allowing 392 yards per game including 269 passing and 123 rushing. The Lions are #24 or worse in all three categories. Detroit is 37/99 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 37/88. The Lions have forced 16 sacks and allowed 17 this season. Detroit is -7 in turnovers. The Lions have 2 defensive touchdowns this season.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford has completed 65% of his passes for 1,866 yards with 12 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, along with 62 rushing yards on 14 carries. He is probable with a hand injury. Dan Orlovsky is the back-up.

Running back Ameer Abdullah has 62 carries for 222 yards and a touchdown, along with 13 catches for 113 yards and a touchdown. Joique Bell will also get some carries. He is questionable with an ankle injury. Theo Riddick will get some carries with or without Bell. Zach Zenner is out for the season with a chest injury.

Receiver Calvin Johnson has 43 catches for 574 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is questionable with an ankle injury.  Golden Tate has 34 catches for 318 yards and a touchdown. Theo Riddick has 36 catches for 318 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Eric Ebron has 20 catches for 268 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Lance Moore has 19 catches for 228 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Brandon Pettigrew is probable with a knee injury. Five defensive players and three offensive linemen  are listed on the injury report.

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Kansas City is being outscored 25-21 this season. The Chiefs are averaging 346 total yards per game including 240 passing and 106 rushing yards. On defense, KC is allowing 368 yards per game including 265 passing and 103 rushing yards per game. Kansas City is 31/92 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 35/99. The Chiefs have forced 15 sacks and allowed 26 this season. The Chiefs are +1 in turnovers. Kansas City has scored two defensive touchdowns and allowed one this season.

Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith has completed 62.8% of his passes for 1,824 yards with 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and also has 31 carries for 124 yards.

Kansas Cith running back Jamaal Charles tore his ACL and is out for the season. Charles had 71 carries for 364 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 21 catches for 177 yards and a touchdown before the injury. Charcandrick West has taken over as the feature back. He has 43 carries for 191 yards and a touchdown, plus 5 catches. He is questionable with a pectoral injury.  Knile Davis has 17 carries for 42 yards and a touchdown, along with 2 catches for 24 yards. If West can’t go, Spencer Ware and fullback Anthony Sherman are the only other running backs on the roster.

Receiver Jeremy Maclin has 39 catches for 531 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a concussion. Tight end Travis Kelce has 34 catches for 489 yards and 2 touchdowns. Chris Conley has 13 catches for 154 yards and a touchdown. Albert Wilson has 9 catches for 153 yards and a touchdown. Five defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Detroit is 11-24-1 ATS in November, 1-4 after a straight up loss, after an ATS loss and against teams with losing records, 1-6 overall, and after rushing for less than 90 yards, 0-8 on grass and and 0-5 after allowing more than 350 total yards, The last five games in this series have gone over the total.

Kansas City is 4-1 ATS after allowing less than 15 points, 13-5 in week eight, 5-2 against teams with losing records, 1-4 after gaining more than 350 total yards, and 1-5 overall. The Chiefs have covered 4 of the last 5 games against the Lions and KC was favored in each of those contests.

The Lions have no semblance of a running game. The offensive line can’t protect Stafford very well either. It could get even worse without Johnson. Kansas City isn’t very good either but they have played a very difficult schedule. I don’t trust either of these teams, but I think it will be a low scoring game.

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