NFL Betting Picks Week #13: Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts

Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, Indiana

Sunday, November 30, 2014, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Indianapolis -9 1/2 (-105)
Current Line: Indianapolis -10 (+110)
Opening Total: 51
Current Total: 51
Opening Money Line: Colts -480 / Redskins +380
Current Money Line: Colts -500 / Redskins +400

The Colts are 10 point favorites against the Redskins Sunday in Indianapolis.
The Colts are 10 point favorites against the Redskins Sunday in Indianapolis.

In the 2012 NFL draft, quarterback Andrew Luck was the #1 pick by the Indianapolis Colts. The Washington Redskins traded up with the St. Louis Rams to take quarterback Robert Griffin III at #2. While Luck has become one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Griffin has struggled with injury and ineffectiveness. In fact after missing several games earlier this season with an ankle injury, Griffin returned a couple of weeks ago but was ineffective. He has been benched for this game in favor of Colt McCoy. Griffin’s tenure with the Redskins is likely over after this season.

However, that is for a later time. The Colts host the Redskins Sunday. The Colts are 7-4 this season and in first place in the AFC South by two games over the Houston Texans. Indianapolis would currently be the #4 seed in the AFC playoffs. Washington is 3-8 this season and tied with the New York Giants for last in the NFC East. Indianapolis leads the series 2-1 against Washington since 2001 including a 27-24 win in Washington in 2010 in the last meeting. The Colts have won 2 straight games against the Redskins.

Washington is coached by Jay Gruden. The Redskins have home wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars 41-10  and Tennessee Titans 19-17, along with a road win at the Dallas Cowboys 20-17 in overtime. Washington ha lost 3 straight games since the Cowboys upset. Washington has road losses at the Texans 17-6, Philadelphia Eagles 37-34, Arizona Cardinals 30-20, Minnesota Vikings 29-26 and last week against the San Francisco 49ers 17-13. The Redskins have home losses to the Giants 45-14, Seattle Seahawks 27-17, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27-7. Washington is 4-7 ATS and the total is 5-6 this season. The Redskins were 9 point underdogs at San Francisco and the total was 43.5.

Indianapolis is coached by Chuck Pagano. The Colts have road losses at the Denver Broncos 31-24 and Steelers 51-34, along with home losses to the Eagles 30-27 and the New England Patriots 42-20. Indianapolis has  road wins at the Jaguars 44-17, Texans 33-28, and Giants 40-24, along with home wins over the Titans 41-17, Baltimore Ravens 20-13, Cincinnati Bengals 27-0 and last week against the Jaguars 23-3. The Colts are 8-3 ATS and the total is 8-3 this season. Indianapolis was a 13 point favorite against Jacksonville and the total was 49.

Washington is being outscored 25-20 this season. The Redskins are #22 in points allowed and #21 in scoring. Washington is averaging 365 total yards per game including 253 passing yards and 112 rushing yards. The Redskins are #11 or better in total offense and passing. Washington is allowing 331 yards per game on defense including 230 passing and 101 rushing yards. The Redskins are in the top ten in all three categories.  Washington is 48/143 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 65/153. The Redskins have 27 sacks and have allowed 33 this season. Washington is -9 in turnovers. The Redskins have allowed 3 defensive touchdowns and a special teams touchdown.

Kirk Cousins took over at quarterback against Jacksonville for an injured Robert Griffin III. Cousins was benched in the Tennessee game in favor of McCoy. McCoy led the Redskins to a come from behind victory against the Titans and also started the upset of the Cowboys. Cousins has completed 61.8% of his passes for 1,710 yards with 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Griffin has completed 69.7% of his passes for 869 yards with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 22 carries for 100 yards. McCoy has completed 85.7% of his passes for 427 yards with a touchdown and an interception along with a rushing touchdown.

Running back Alfred Morris has 193 carries for 826 yards and 7 touchdowns, plus 11 catches. Roy Helu has 33 carries for 169 yards and a touchdown, plus 34 catches for 375 yards and a touchdown. Receiver DeSean Jackson has 42 catches for 858 yards and 4 touchdowns. Pierre Garcon has 46 catches for 498 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tight end Niles Paul has 34 catches for 457 yards and a touchdown. Andre Roberts has 28 catches for 294 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Jordan Reed has 24 catches for 229 yards. He is questionable with a hamstring injury.  Darrell Young has only 8 catches but two touchdowns. Eleven defensive players are listed on the injury report for Washington.

Indianapolis is outscoring teams 30-23 this season. The Colts are #4 in scoring and #17 in points allowed. Indianapolis is averaging 434 yards per game on offense including 323 passing 111 rushing yards. The Colts are #1 in total offense in passing. On defense, Indianapolis is allowing 359 yards per game including 249 passing and 110 rushing yards. The Colts are 71/162 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 47/138. Indianapolis has forced 28 sacks and allowed 20 this season. The Colts are even in turnovers. Indianapolis has a defensive touchdown and has allowed 2 this season.

Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck has completed 63.4% of his passes for 3,641 yards with 29 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, along with 46 carries for 193 yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw has 90  carries for 425 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 38 catches for 300 yards and 6 touchdowns. He is out for the season with an ankle injury. Trent Richardson has 127 carries for 433 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 22 catches for 203 yards. Daniel Herron will also get some carries.

Receiver T.Y. Hilton has 63 catches for 1,083 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Reggie Wayne has 50 catches for 605 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Coby Fleener has 31 catches for 467 yards and 4 touchdowns. Tight end Dwayne Allen has  26 catches for 374 yards and 7 touchdowns. He is out with an ankle injury. Hakeem Nicks has three touchdown catches. Twenty three Colts players are listed on the injury report including 7 offensive linemen and 13 defensive players.

Washington is 2-6 ATS in week #13 and overall, 2-9 after a cover, 1-5 after a straight up loss and in November, 2-11-4 after passing for 150 yards or less, and 1-6-3 after gaining less than 250 total yards. The over is 4-1 in this series recently. The Redskins are 3-1-1 ATS in this series recently.

Indianapolis is 7-1 ATS against teams with losing road records, 5-1 on fieldturf and after allowing 150 passing yards or less, 17-4 against teams with losing records, 4-1-1 in week #13, 4-1 after rushing for more than 150 yards and gaining more than 350 total yards, 7-2 overall and after a straight up win by 14 points or more, 16-5 after allowing less than 250 total yards, 9-3 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 19-7 at home, 7-3 after a straight up win, and 33-16-2 after allowing less than 15 points. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in this series recently.

The Colts have a two game cushion in the AFC South and hold the tiebreaker over the Texans. Still, Indianapolis can’t afford to overlook a dangerous Redskins team who has some close losses this season.The Redskins are in disarray with the distractions caused by the Griffin situation. I think the Colts win this one handily.

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