NFL Betting Picks Week #12: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, Indiana

Sunday, November 23, 2014, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Indianapolis -13 1/2
Current Line: Indianapolis -14
Opening Total: 50
Current Total: 50
Opening Money Line: Colts -800 / Jaguars +575
Current Money Line: Colts -900 / Jaguars +600

The Colts are 2 touchdown favorites against the Jaguars Sunday.
The Colts are 2 touchdown favorites against the Jaguars Sunday.

Less than a month ago, the Indianapolis Colts were 5-2 having won 5 straight games. Many were saying the Colts were Super Bowl contenders. However blowout losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots have led people to abandon the Colts’ bandwagon like it was infected with Ebola. The 6-4 Colts look to get back on track as they host the 1-9 Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday. The Colts lead the AFC South by a game over the 5-5 Houston Texans. The Jaguars are one of two teams with only one win along with the Oakland Raiders.

Since 2002, Indianapolis leads the series 17-8 against Jacksonville. The Colts have won 4 straight games against the Jaguars all by 17 points or more. Indianapolis won 44-17 in Jacksonville earlier this season in week #3.

Jacksonville is coached by Gus Bradley. The only win for the Jaguars came at home over the Cleveland Browns 24-6. The Jags have lost 3 straight games. Jacksonville has road losses at the Philadelphia Eagles 34-17, Washington Redskins 41-17, San Diego Chargers 33-14, Tennessee Titans 16-14, Cincinnati Bengals 33-23, and the Dallas Cowboys 31-17 two weeks ago in London. The Jaguars also have home losses to the Indianapolis Colts 44-17, Pittsburgh Steelers 17-9 and Miami Dolphins 27-13. Jacksonville is 2-7-1 ATS and the total is 6-4 this season. The Jaguars were 7.5 point underdogs against the Cowboys and the total was 45.

Indianapolis is coached by Chuck Pagano. The Colts have road losses at the Denver Broncos 31-24 and Steelers 51-34, along with home losses to the Eagles 30-27 and last week against the Patriots 42-20. Indianapolis has  road wins at the Jaguars, Texans 33-28, and New York Giants 40-24, along with home wins over the Titans 41-17, Baltimore Ravens 20-13, and Bengals 27-0. The Colts are 7-3 ATS and the total is 8-2 this season. Indianapolis was a 3 point favorite against New England and the total was 58.

Jacksonville is being outscored 28-16. The Jaguars are #31 in points allowed and last in scoring. Jacksonville is averaging 315 yards per game including 217 passing and 98 rushing yards per game. The Jaguars are #22 or worse in all three categories. On defense, Jacksonville is allowing 388 yards per game including 262 passing and 126 rushing yards per game. The Jaguars are #25 or worse in all three categories. Jacksonville is 53/146 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 63/152. The Jaguars have forced 28 sacks and allowed 39 this season. The Jaguars are -11 in turnovers. Jacksonville has allowed 5 defensive touchdowns this season.

Jacksonville rookie quarterback Blake Bortles replaced Chad Henne earlier in the season. Bortles has completed 63.3% of his passes for 1,921 yards with 8 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, along with 34 carries for 204 yards. Henne threw for 492 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. He hasn’t played since week 3 when Bortles took over against the Colts.

Running back Denard Robinson has 100 catches for 483 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 16 catches for 67 yards. Toby Gerhart has 59 carries for 154 yards and a touchdown, plus 12 catches for 135 yards. Storm Johnson has 20 carries for 64 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Allen Robinson has 48 catches for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is out for the season with a foot injury. Allen Hurns has 30 catches for 475 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is probable with a concussion. Cecil Shorts has 33 catches for 375 yards and a touchdown. Shorts is probable with a head injury. Tight end Clay Harbor has 25 catches for 272 yards and a touchdown. Seven defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Indianapolis is outscoring teams 31-25 this season. The Colts are #3 in scoring and #22 in points allowed. Indianapolis is averaging 438 yards per game on offense including 334 passing 104 rushing yards. The Colts are #1 in total offense in passing. On defense, Indianapolis is allowing 376 yards per game including 263 passing and 113 rushing yards. Indianapolis is #24 in total offense and #27 in pass defense. The Colts are 62/145 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 44/125. Indianapolis has forced 24 sacks and allowed 15 this season. The Colts are +1 in turnovers. Indianapolis has a defensive touchdown and has allowed 2 this season.

Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck has completed 63.2% of his passes for 3,388 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, along with 38 carries for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw has 90  carries for 425 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 38 catches for 300 yards and 6 touchdowns. He is out for the season with an ankle injury. Trent Richardson has 114 carries for 391 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 22 catches for 203 yards.

Receiver T.Y. Hilton has 59 catches for 961 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Reggie Wayne has 47 catches for 595 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Coby Fleener has 29 catches for 439 yards and 4 touchdowns. Tight end Dwayne Allen has  26 catches for 374 yards and 7 touchdowns. He is out with an ankle injury. Hakeem Nicks has three touchdown catches. Seventeen Colts players are listed on the injury report including 6 offensive linemen and 8 defensive players.

I think the Colts will take out their frustrations of getting whipped by the Patriots out on the hapless Jaguars. The Colts should win this game handily and might hang a 50 spot on them.

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