NFL Betting Picks Week #1: Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, September 10, 2017, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, Wisconsin
Opening Line: Green Bay -3 (-115)
Current Line: Green Bay -3 (+100)
Opening Total: 49
Current Total: 51 1/2
Opening Money Line: Packers -165 / Seahawks +145
Current Money Line: Packers -145 / Seahawks +125

The Packers host the Seahawks in a battle of NFC contenders.

Both the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers won their respective divisions last season. However both of their seasons ended with blowout losses at the NFC champion Atlanta Falcons in the playoffs. The Seahawks travel to the Packers to open the 2017 season Sunday at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay leads the series 12-8 against Seattle. The Packers have beaten the Seahawks two straight times including a 38-10 rout last year in Green Bay. This is the third straight season the teams will meet at Lambeau.

Seattle is coached by Pete Carroll. The Seahawks won the NFC West with a 10-5-1 record last year. The Seahawks beat the Detroit Lions 26-6 in the wild card playoffs before losing at the Falcons 36-20. Seattle was 9-9 ATS and the total was 10-8 last season. The Seahawks went 4-0 straight up in the pre-season this year including a 17-13 road win over the Oakland Raiders in week four.

Green Bay is coached by Mike McCarthy. The Packers won the NFC North with a 10-6 record. After a four game losing streak dropped them to 4-6, the Packers won the last six games of the regular season to win the division. The hot streak continued in the playoffs with wins over the New York Giants 38-13 in the Wild Card game and an upset on the road against the Dallas Cowboys 34-31 in the divisional game. However, the season ended with a 44-21 blowout loss to the Falcons in the NFC championship game.  Green Bay went 11-7-1 ATS last year and the total was 13-6 last season. The Packers went 3-1 in the preseason this year including a 24-10 home win over the Los Angeles Rams in week four.

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Seattle outscored teams 22-18 last season. Seattle averaged 357 yards per game on offense including 258 passing and 99 rushing yards. On defense, the Seahawks allowed 319 total yards per game including 226 passing and 93 rushing yards. Seattle was 83/218 on third and fourth conversions and opponents were 88/232. Seattle forced 42 sacks and allowed 42 last season. The Seahawks were +1 in turnovers.

Quarterback Russell Wilson completed 64.7% of his passes for 4,219 yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, plus 72 carries for 259 yards and a touchdown. Austen Davis is the back-up for the Seahawks.

Running back  Thomas Rawls had 109 carries for 349 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 13 catches for 96 yards. He is questionable with an ankle injury. The Seahawks also signed free agent Eddie Lacy away from the Packers. Lacy missed most of last season with an injury and has battled some conditioning issues. He rushed for  360 yards last season.  C.J. Prosise has 30 carries for 172 yards and a touchdown, along with 17 catches for 208 yards. He is probable with a groin injury. Rookie Chris Carson will get some carries too. Tre Madden is the fullback.

Receiver Doug Baldwin had 94 catches for 1,128 yards and 7 touchdowns. Tight end Jimmy Graham had 95 catches for 923 yards and 6 touchdowns. Tyler Lockett had 41 catches for 597 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a leg injury. Paul Richardson had 21 catches for 288 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a shoulder injury. Eleven defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report. Cornerback Richard Sherman is questionable with a thigh injury.

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Green Bay outscored teams 27-24 last season. The Packers averaged 369 yards per game on offense including 262 passing and 106 rushing yards. On defense, Green Bay allowed 364 total yards per game including 269 passing and 95 rushing yards per game. Green Bay was 105/227 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents were 94/217. The Packers forced 40 sacks and allowed 35 last season. Green Bay was +8 in turnovers.

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 65.7% of his passes for 4,428 yards with 40 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 67 carries  for 369 yards and 4 touchdowns. He enters the season as always as an MVP candidate. Brett Hundley is the back-up.

Receiver turned running back Ty Montgomery had 77 carries for 457 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 44 catches for 348 yards. Fullback Aaron Ripkowski had 34 carries for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 9 catches for 46 yards and a touchdown. Three rookies, Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones and Devante Mays are behind Montgomery.

Receiver Jordy Nelson had 97 catches for 1,257 yards and 14 touchdowns. Davante Adams had 75 catches for 997 yards and 12 touchdowns, Randall Cobb had 60 catches for 610 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 10 carries for 33 yards. Tight end Martellus  Bennett had 55 catches for 701 yards and 7 touchdowns for the Patriots last year. The Packers also signed Lance Kendricks from the Rams. He had 50 catches for 499 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Tight end Richard Rodgers had 30 catches for 271 and 2 touchdowns. Six defensive players and two offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

Seattle is 1-5 ATS on grass, and 0-4 in road games. The over is 6-2-1 in this series recently and 5-2 in Green Bay.

Green Bay is 4-0 ATS at home, 6-1 in September, 5-1 on grass, 4-1 overall and against NFC teams, and 7-3 in week one. The home team is 5-1 ATS in this series recently. The Packers are 6-2-2 against the Seahawks recently including 4-0-1 at home.

This will be a battle of the explosive offense of Green Bay against the hard hitting Seattle defense. However, both teams are serviceable on the other side of the ball. I think the Packers win at home, but I don’t think it will be a blowout like last year’s meeting last December.

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