NFL Betting Picks on Thanksgiving: Chicago Bears At Green Bay Packers

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, Wisconsin
Thursday, November 26, 2015, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: NBC
Opening Line: Green Bay -9
Current Line: Green Bay -8 1/2
Opening Total: 48
Current Total: 45
Opening Money Line: Packers -425 / Bears +340
Current Money Line: Packers -420 / Bears +335

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Green Bay looks to extend their dominance over rival Chicago Thursday.

Two of the NFL’s oldest franchises renew their rivalry as the Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears Thanksgiving night. Although the teams have played almost 200 times since 1921, this is the first time they will ever meet on Thanksgiving. Green Bay is tied with the Minnesota Vikings for first in the NFC North at 7-3. Chicago is third in the division at 4-6.

Chicago leads the series 93-92-6 against Green Bay, but the Packers have won 10 of the last 11 games in the series dating back to 2011. Green Bay opened this season with a 31-23 win in Chicago. Green Bay only led 17-16 going into the fourth, but pulled away with two fourth quarter touchdowns. Chicago scored a late cosmetic touchdown to make it seem closer.

Chicago is coached by John Fox. The Bears have a home win over the Oakland Raiders 22-20, plus road wins over the Kansas City Chiefs 18-17, San Diego Chargers 22-19 and St. Louis Rams 37-13. The Bears have home losses to the Packers 31-23, Arizona Cardinals 48-23, Minnesota Vikings 23-20 and Denver Broncos 17-15 last week, along with road losses at the Seattle Seahawks 26-0 and Detroit Lions 37-34.

Chicago was a 2.5 point home underdog against Denver and the total was 41.5. Fox and the Broncos mutually decided to part ways after last year. Denver started quarterback Brock Osweiler in place of an injured Peyton Manning. Osweiler threw a beautiful 48 yard touchdown pass early in the first to a wide open Demaryius Thomas. Chicago kicked two field goals in the second quarter but would trail 10-6 at halftime. The Bears added a third field goal to cut the deficit to 10-9 at the end of the third. Osweiler threw his second touchdown pass of the game to make it 17-9 early in the fourth. Chicago scored a touchdown with 24 seconds left but failed to convert for two points. Denver recovered the onside kick to seal the win. Chicago had two turnovers. The Bears are 6-4 ATS and the total is 4-6 this season.

Green Bay is coached by Mike McCarthy. The Packers have home wins over the Seattle Seahawks 27-17, Kansas City Chiefs 38-28, St. Louis Rams 24-10 and San Diego Chargers 27-20, along with road wins at the Chicago Bears 31-23, San Francisco 49ers 17-3 and Minnesota Vikings 30-13 last week. The win against Minnesota snapped a three game losing streak for the Packers. Green Bay has road losses at the Denver Broncos 29-10 and Carolina Panthers 37-29, along with a home loss last week to the Detroit Lions 18-16.

The Packers entered the game against the Vikings in second place in the division a game behind Minnesota. The Vikings were 1 point favorites and the total was 45. The Packers took a 16-6 lead into halftime but the Vikings pulled to within 19-13 by the end of the third. Green Bay sealed the win with 11 fourth quarter points to move back into first in the NFC North. The Packers are 6-4 ATS and the total is 3-7 this season.

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Chicago is being outscored 25-21 this season. The Bears average 352 total yards per game on offense including 240 passing and 112 rushing yards. On defense, Chicago is allowing 341 yards per game including 217 passing and 124 rushing yards. The Bears are #4 in pass defense but #25 against the rush. Chicago is 62/147 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 63/141. Chicago has forced 20 sacks and has allowed 18 this season. The Bears are -3 in turnovers, but have allowed six special teams/defensive touchdowns.

Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler has completed 63.4% of his passes for 2,310 yards with 13 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and has 25 carries for 144 yards and a touchdown. Jimmy Clausen played in a couple of games early in the season when Cutler was injured. He threw for 184 yards with an interception in those two games.

Running back Matt Forte has missed the last three games with a knee injury, and is questionable Thursday. He has 136 carries for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 25 catches for 219 yards and a touchdown. Jeremy Langford has 78 carries for 250 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 15 catches for 227 yards and a touchdown. Ka’Deem Carey is doubtful with a concussion. He has 30 carries for 116 yards. Jacquizz Rodgers and Senorise Perry are both on injured reserve.

Receiver Alshon Jeffery has 36 catches for 515 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is questionable with a shoulder injury. Tight end Martellus Bennett has 50 catches for 425 yards with 3 touchdowns. He is out with a ribs injury. Marquess Wilson has 24 catches for 240 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Zach Miller has 13 catches for 212 yards and 3 touchdowns. Eddie Royal has 26 catches for 171 yards and a touchdown. He is out with a knee injury. First round draft pick Kevin White has yet to play a down in his NFL career due to an ankle injury. Six defensive players are on the injury report.

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Green Bay is outscoring teams 25-20 this season. The Packers are #9 in scoring and #8 in points allowed. Green Bay is averaging 342 yards per game on offense including 232 passing and 110 rushing yards. The Packers are #21 in total offense and #22 in passing. On defense, the Packers are allowing 369 yards per game including 255 passing and 114 rushing yards. Green Bay is #21 or worse in all three categories. The Packers are 51/134 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 62/154. Green Bay has forced 29 sacks and has allowed 24 this season. The Packers are +8 in turnovers with a defensive touchdown.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 61.7% of his passes for 2,482 yards along with 23 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 40 carries for 227 yards. He is probable with a shoulder injury.

Running back Eddie Lacy has 105 carries for 408 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 11 catches for 98 yards. James Starks has 101 carries for 390 yards and a touchdown along with 26 catches for 251 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Receiver Randall Cobb has 47 catches for 553 yards and 6 touchdowns. James Jones has 30 catches for 592 yards and 7 touchdowns. Davante Adams has 30 catches for 308 yards. Tight end Richard Rodgers  has 36 catches for 263 yards and 5 touchdowns. Ty Montgomery has 15 catches for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is doubtful with an ankle injury. Receiver Jordy Nelson is out for the season with a torn ACL suffered during the pre-season. Six defensive players and four offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

Chicago is 5-0 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards, 4-0 in road games, 6-1 overall, 4-1 after a cover and on grass, 5-2 in November, 12-27 against NFC teams, 7-16 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 5-13 against NFC North teams, and 0-4 in Thursday games. The road team is 5-1 ATS in this series recently. The last four games in this series have gone over the total.

Green Bay is 6-1 ATS after allowing less than 15 points, 5-1 after a cover, 6-2 after a straight up win, and against NFC teams, 5-2 in Thursday games and after a straight up win by 14 points or more, 40-18 against NFC North teams, 35-17-2 at home, 4-10 against teams with losing records, and November, 2-7 against teams with losing road records, 1-4 in week 12, and overall and 0-4 on grass. The under is 5-2 in Green Bay in this series recently. The favorite has covered the last four games in this series. The Packers are 22-8-1 ATS against the Bears recently including 5-2 at Lambeau.

Green Bay has dominated this series recently and looked like they regained some of their swagger with the win over the Vikings recently. I like Green Bay to win by double digits at home.

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