NCAA Football Week 3 Betting Preview: UMass vs. (17) Michigan

Denard Robinson both ran and threw for 200+ yards, (416 total yards of offense) becoming the first player in major college football to do so, but the Wolverines still narrowly escaped with a victory against Air Force.
UMass vs. (17) Michigan
Time: 3:30 PM EST, Saturday, Sept 15
Spread: MICH -45.5
Total: 54

Betting Odds from Bookmaker


Michigan barely had enough to get past Air Force last week, but won the shoulders of Denard Robinson, who accounted for an astounding 426 yards of offense, 218 of which were rushing yards, en route to scoring four TDs for the then-19th ranked Wolverines.

Still, they barely escaped a bad upset to the Falcons. Head coach Brady Hoke said “Sometimes they’re (wins) not very pretty, and this would be one.”

Pretty or not, it propelled the Wolverines up two spots in the rankings, though they sit seven spots behind conference foe Ohio State (though the Buckeyes are ineligible for the conference championship due to NCAA sanctions).

Robinson was the first player in major college football to record 200+ rushing yards and 200+ passing yards in the same game, showing why he is a Heisman hopeful this year. Robinson realizes it is his speed that makes this all possible, saying “when I get in front on a big run, I don’t think anyone is going to catch me.” Catch him, they didn’t, and UMass has almost no chance of doing so either, as heavy 45.5 point underdogs, as set by college football oddsmakers.

It was redemption after losing their season opener to top ranked Alabama. The game wasn’t even as close as the 41-14 score would lead one to believe. Still, in that game, Robinson threw 11 passes for 200 yards, but recorded two interceptions while completing on that rather low completion percentage of just 42%. He ran for an additional 27 yards, but will need more big games like his performance against the Air Force for this Michigan team to maximize its potential.


This season has been a disaster through two games for the Minutemen, who have managed only six points through two games, while giving up an average of 41 points per game, which ranks them near the bottom of the nation in points against (112th). In fact, all of their major statistics rank at the bottom of the nation.

Their top two rushers have accounted for only 56 yards on about two yards per rush. Freshman QB Mike Wegzyn has had a lot of trouble stepping up to the NCAA stage. The 6’5″ 215 pound from Knoxville has only 207 passing yards through the first two games, while having been sacked three times. His average yards per completion is just 4.31 yards, and he has yet to throw for a TD (both UMass’s two scores have been field goals).

Betting Trends:

Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs MAC teams and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 following an SU win. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conf games and 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS loss. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 overall.

The OVER Is 4-0 in the last 4 Minutemen games in September, and the OVER Is 4-1 in the last 5 Minutemen games following an SU loss of 20+

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