NCAA Football Week 3 Betting Preview and Predictions: Western Michigan vs. Minnesota

Senior QB MarQueis Gray leads a Minnesota squad that is 2.5 point favorites this week in their matchup against Western Michigan.
Western Michigan vs. Minnesota
Time: Noon EST, Saturday, Sept 15
TV: Big Ten Network
Spread: MIN -2.5
Total: 55.5
M/L: MIN -140, WM +120

Betting Odds from Bookmaker

WESTERN MICHIGAN

Last week, the Broncos hammered Eastern Illinois, winning 52-21 as Alex Carder threw five TDs and connected on 364 passing yards, while throwing only one interception. He completed nearly 75% of his passes and Jaime Wilson was his primary target, catching 11 passes for 154 yards and two TDs, while Blake Hammond contributed six receptions for 94 yards and two TDs of his own. The Broncos also converted 10 of 16 third-downs, while holding Eastern Illinois to only 2 converted third downs of 15 attempts.

Wilson now has 19 receptions on the year for 213 yards and three TDs, while almost all of Hammond’s production came in last week’s win. Hammond does lead the Broncos in yards per reception, though, with his average reception accounting for 16.7 yards.

MINNESOTA

The Golden Gophers had one of the most exciting games of the season so far in their week one win. A triple overtime thriller, Minnesota won by three against UNLV, to win their road opener. Jordan Wettstein hit the 32 yard field goal to win the game for the Golden Gophers.

QB MarQueis Gray threw two TDs in that win and had 269 yards on 17 of 30 completions. It was the first overtime win for Minnesota since a 2009 victory over Syracuse. Disconcerting, however, was the fact that they converted only 3 of 15 third-downs in the game. RBs Donnell Kirkwood & Gray combined for 149 yards on 30 carries, but neither scored for the Golden Gophers.

Week two wasn’t quite as close, with Minnesota jumping all over the New Hampshire Wildcats. They gave up a TD in the first quarter, but held New Hampshire scoreless the rest of the game, while running up 28 points of their own in the final three quarters. Gray threw for two TDs in that game, too, while running for two more by the half. Kirkwood ran for 70 yards on 17 carries.

The Gophers lost to FCS national champ North Dakota last year, and South Dakota in 2010, and North Dakota State in 2007. They hadn’t taken care of business against FCS teams, needless to say, but this victory was a huge step in the right direction for a team that is predicted to go 5-7 overall and 2-6 in the Big-Ten by Athlon magazine.

This is a team that is still building for the future, and by 2015 could be a huge threat, on the shoulders of a young core of players who are still yet to find their way. They could sneak into a bowl game, and improvement is almost inevitable after a 2011 season that featured a 3-9 overall record and 2-6 finish in Big-Ten play.

Betting Trends:

Western Michigan is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 in September. They are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 following an SU win and 7-2-2 in their last 11 following an ATS win. The Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs the Big-Ten.

Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 overall. The Golden Gophers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing less than 20 points in the previous game and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after scoring more than 40 the previous game.

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