NCAA Football SEC Picks: Vanderbilt Commodores at (10) Florida Gators

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Vanderbilt at (10) Florida

Time: 11 AM CST (ESPN)

Spread: FLA -26

Total: 48

Odds c/o 5dimes

The No. 10-ranked Florida Gators sit at 7-2 and is in second place in the SEC East behind the Georgia Bulldogs. Florida is 7-2 in SEC play, though it fell by a touchdown last week to Georgia in a game that (nearly) decides the conference winner.

Florida closes its season with games against Missouri and Florida State, so it should finish with these same two losses it currently has, which came against Georgia and a now-top-ranked LSU team (three weeks ago, when it was No. 5). The Gators host Vanderbilt as 26-point favorites on Saturday at 11 AM (CST) on ESPN and the over/under is set at 48 points according to NCAA football oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes.

UF

Florida has largely gotten it done with its defense. The Gators are allowing just 16.7 points per game, and it manages to score over 30 itself, with a point differential of +14.5. Florida’s offense is pass-heavy, ranking No. 31 in the nation in passing yardage at 275 yards per game. It generates just 128.9 via the rush, but it is enough to balance to keep the offense crisp and unpredictable enough.

The Gators quarterback Kyle Trask has been a pleasant surprise this season. He has 1,648 passing yards with a 66.8 percent completion ratio, 16 touchdowns, and just four picks with 15 sacks. Trask boasts a passer rating of 157.5, which trails Feleipe Franks (173.4) but is over a sample size nearly three times the size.

The Gators average 4.1 yards-per-carry, but its top rusher Lamical Perine has been solid. He has 491 yards this season on 107 carries, and he has scored four of the team’s 13 rushing touchdowns. Dameon Pierce is the No. 2 back, but he has just 38 attempts this season. He leads the team in yards-per-attempt (min. 10 attempts) at 6.8 per-rush. Florida’s receiving effort is paced by tight end Kyle Pitts who has caught a team-high 39 passes for 469 yards and four TDs. Freddie Swain leads the receivers with 29 catches for 430 yards and a team-best five touchdowns.

Florida has scored 23 rushing touchdowns on the season with 10 different players having at least one TD.

VANDY

Vanderbilt is just 2-6 this season and it is just 1-4 in SEC play. The Commodores have lost three of its last four, including a 7-24 loss to South Carolina last week. The Commodores rank outside of the top-100 in both passing and rushing offense, and it averages just 17 points per game, which ranks in the bottom-10 teams of FBS division I. Meanwhile, Vandy is giving up 32.4 per game, which gives i a point differential of -15.4. The result is really just bad, losing football.

Vandy’s top running back has been good if nothing else. Ke’Shawn Vaughn has 151 attempts this season for 790 yards (5.2 per-carry) with six of the team’s seven rushing touchdowns. Quarterback Riley Neal is No. 2 in attempts but has negative-7 yards on those 35 rushes this season. He has been fair with his throwing, but he also averages just 6.4 yards-per-completion and has a paltry six touchdowns on the season.

Vandy has five relevant receivers with 150 yards or more on the season, and it has scored seven touchdowns via the pass. Another bright spot for the Commodores has been place kicker Ryley Guay. He is 10 of 10 on PATs and 7 of 8 on field goals, with his lone miss coming from beyond the 40-yard line. He has hit 5 of 6 beyond the 40.

BETTING TRENDS (C/o Covers):

Vanderbilt

  • Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
  • Commodores are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Commodores are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
  • Commodores are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.
  • Commodores are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
  • Commodores are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
  • Commodores are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
  • Commodores are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Florida

  • Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
  • Gators are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
  • Gators are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Gators are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Gators are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
  • Gators are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.
  • Gators are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in November.
  • Gators are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

OU TRENDS

Vanderbilt

  • Under is 5-0 in Commodores last 5 games overall.
  • Under is 4-0 in Commodores last 4 games in November.
  • Under is 4-0 in Commodores last 4 games following a ATS loss.
  • Under is 5-0 in Commodores last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Under is 7-1 in Commodores last 8 conference games.
  • Over is 5-1 in Commodores last 6 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-1 in Commodores last 5 games on grass.
  • Under is 6-2 in Commodores last 8 road games.
  • Over is 8-3 in Commodores last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 11-5-1 in Commodores last 17 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 37-17-1 in Commodores last 55 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Florida

  • Under is 6-0 in Gators last 6 home games.
  • Under is 6-2 in Gators last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Under is 6-2 in Gators last 8 games following a ATS loss.
  • Under is 13-5 in Gators last 18 games in November.
  • Under is 13-6 in Gators last 19 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

HEAD TO HEAD:

  • Road team is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
  • Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Florida.
  • Over is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings.
  • Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Florida.
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