NCAA Football Picks, Odds, Trends: San Jose State Spartans at Air Force Falcons

San Jose State vs Air Force

Time: 7 PM CST, Friday

Spread: AF -19

Total: 56.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Air Force Falcons are 2-1 after its week 3 loss to Boise State. It handily defeated Colgate 48-7 in Week 1, and it knocked off Colorado by a touchdown in Week 2. The Falcons are at home this week hosting San Jose State, finding itself 19-point favorites according to NCAA Football oddsmakers at 5dimes.

The over/under is set at 56.5 total points according to the same bookmaker, and the game kicks off at 7 PM CST Friday on CBS.


The Falcons have more or less played according to its heavy-rush model. Donald Hammond III has fared well in the limited throws he has made (23 all season), having completed 238 passing yards and three touchdowns. But he has thrown two interceptions and incurred one sack. Hammond ranks No. 3 on the team in rushing yardage with 110 yards on 28 carries and a team-best five rushing touchdowns. Kadin Remsberg and Taven Birdow, though, are the heavy carriers here at 42 and 39 attempts, respectively. Remsberg leads the team in yardage with 267 total yards and three TDs, while Birdow has 214 yards on his 39 tries but no touchdowns.

Wide receiver Geraud Sanders has done almost all of the receiving work with 10 of the team’s 16 catches and 183 yards to his name. He has also scored two of the three receiving touchdowns.  Kicker Jake Koehnke has struggled. He is just 9 of 12 on PATs. He is 3 of 3 on field goals and has hit one from 47-yards, but there is no reason to only connect on 75 percent of PATs.  Defensively, Jeremy Fejedelem has been a total monster. He leads the team with 17 solo tackles, eight assisted, and 1.5 sacks for a total loss of 11-yards. The Falcons have six sacks on the season to go along with 27 tackles-for-loss.


San Jose State is 2-1 after defeating Northern Colorado and Arkansas in Weeks 1 and 3, with a loss to Tulsa sandwiched between.

Josh Love, overall, has been very good at QB. He has 815 yards on 62.7 percent passing and five touchdowns with just one interception. He has suffered three sacks, but that is tolerable at an average of just one per game. Backup QB Nick Nash has become the de facto No. 1 option at running back, actually. The QB has thrown seven times on the season (with five completions) but he leads the team in rushing yardage with 141 yards on just 17 attempts. He averages 8.3 yards-per-carry and is tied for the team lead in touchdowns with two.

The best running back has been DeJon Packer, who is the No. 2 option by yardage, but leads the Spartans in carries with 33. He has 133 yards on the year with two TDs, but his 4.0 yards-per-carry is less than half of what the team gets on average from Nash. Tyler Nevens rounds out the backfield as the No.3 option with 96 yards on 21 tries and a TD. The Spartans have six rushing TDs and five via the pass, with those distributed among four different receiving options, but none of them coming from the actual top-3 receivers.

Tre Walker, Isaiah Hamilton and Bailey Gaither have 33 catches between them, and all three have 120-yards or more on the season, but none have gone into the end zone yet. Jermaine Braddock has two of the five scores, but he has caught just five passes on the year for 66 yards.

ATS TRENDS (C/o Covers):

San Jose State
  • Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
  • Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
  • Spartans are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
  • Spartans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
  • Spartans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
  • Spartans are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games in September.
  • Spartans are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Air Force
  • Falcons are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Falcons are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
  • Falcons are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Falcons are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Falcons are 3-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Falcons are 12-27 ATS in their last 39 games following a straight up loss.
  • Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Falcons are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 conference games.
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