NCAA Football Picks ATS: Baylor Bears at Duke Blue Devils

Baylor at Duke
Time: 11:30 AM (CT)
Spread: DUK -14
Total: 60

Odds c/o 5dimes

 

DUKE

The Duke Blue Devils have begun its 2017 season dominantly, outscoring its first two week opponents by a total of 101 to 24, proving itself dominant on both ends of the football and looking as though it could be one of the better Blue Devil seasons. College football oddsmakers seem to think so, in setting the line 14-points in favor of the hosting Blue Devils, as Baylor University travels to face the high-powered Blue Devil offense, led by quarterback Daniel Jones.

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Jones has been sensational thus far. He has thrown 48 of 70 for 518 yards with four TDs, one interception. His top two targets both have 279 yards and 22 catches between them, and the Devils have scored five receiving TDs on the season. Brittain Brown has been tops in the backfield with 149 yard on 24 carries, with Jones having rushed for the second-most yards from the QB position. Jones has 127 yards on 20 carriers and leads the team in rushing TDs with three already through two games. With college football oddsmakers setting the over/under at 60 points in this affair, the proposition is that with Duke as heavy favorites, Jones and company will score plenty of TDs this week. Duke is averaging 4.5 yards per carry as a team, and all of its top-three options average five yards or better per carry.

Duke will face UNC the week after this, before hosting No. 17 Miami (FL). The remainder of the season holds two more ranked opponents in No. 11 FSU and No. 16 Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils will have their chances to face top programs this year, but the start to the season has been as good as anyone could have asked for.

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BAYLOR

Baylor, meanwhile, has seen nothing but struggles so far. The Bears lost 48-45 to Liberty in Week 1, which was the biggest upset perhaps ever. Baylor quarterback Anu Soloman threw 14 of 29 for 278 yards with three TDs, and the team rushed for 254 yards, but it gave up 447 passing yards to Steven Calvert of Liberty. In a game that was expected to be an easy win, the Bears blew it, which only then led to its week 2 disappointment against UT-San Antonio.

It was UTSA’s first win over a Power5 as it won 17-10 behind 155 passing yards and 98 rushing yards from UTSAs Dalton Sturm. In two weeks, Baylor had been stunned twice, and now it is facing a program that is on an upswing and playing its best football. The makings are all here for a Duke blowout.

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ATS TRENDS

Baylor
  • Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. ACC.
  • Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Bears are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
  • Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
  • Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
  • Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
  • Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
  • Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
  • Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Duke
  • Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Blue Devils are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Blue Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
  • Blue Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Blue Devils are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games.
  • Blue Devils are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
  • Blue Devils are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Blue Devils are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
  • Blue Devils are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Blue Devils are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
  • Blue Devils are 12-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

OU TRENDS

Baylor
  • Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 non-conference games.
  • Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games in September.
  • Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 6-2 in Bears last 8 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-2 in Bears last 7 road games.
  • Under is 7-3 in Bears last 10 games following a ATS loss.
  • Under is 9-4 in Bears last 13 games on grass.
Duke
  • Over is 4-0 in Blue Devils last 4 games overall.
  • Over is 4-0 in Blue Devils last 4 games on grass.
  • Under is 10-2 in Blue Devils last 12 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 9-2 in Blue Devils last 11 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 8-2 in Blue Devils last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 10-3 in Blue Devils last 13 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 6-2 in Blue Devils last 8 home games.
  • Under is 8-3 in Blue Devils last 11 games in September.
  • Under is 11-5-1 in Blue Devils last 17 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
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