NCAA Football Picks ATS: (4) Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Week 10 NFL Odds & Lines

(4) Georgia at Georgia Tech

Time: 11 AM CST (ABC)

Spread: UGA -28

Total: 46.5

odds c/o 5dimes

The Georgia Bulldogs have lost just once in this season, to lowly South Carolina. Even so, a win Saturday over Georgia Tech should help it retain its top-4 status and make the playoff. The Bulldogs enter this affair as 28-point road favorites against the Yellow Jackets, with the point total set at 46.5 according to NCAA football oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes.

UGA

The Bulldogs have got it done on the strength of its defense and its rushing attack in 2019. UGA ranks just No. 81 in passing offense, but it generates nearly 200 yards a game via the rush and is ranked No. 33 in that aspect. The defense has held its opponents to just 10.7 points per game while the Bulldogs tally 31.2 points per, itself.

Starting quarterback Jake Fromm has been very solid, even if the team has been focused more on the rush. He has completed 63.4 percent of his passes with 17 TDs and just three INTs. He has also incurred just eight sacks. Fromm has not proven to be much of a rushing threat (28 attempts for three yards), but his ability to scramble and avoid sacks is top-notch.

Also, credit his offensive line for the superb job it has done both protecting him and creating holes for the top-rusher De’Andre Swift. Swift averages 6.2 yards-per-carry on his 183 attempts and has topped the 1,000-yard mark quite easily (1,130). Swift has seven of the team’s 18 total rushing touchdowns.

The top receivers have been Lawrence Cager and George Pickins, who basically serve as “1A” and “1B” options: Cager has 33 catches for 476 yards and Pickens is good for 457 yards on 32 catches. The duo is responsible for nine of the 19 total passing touchdowns.

Kicker Rodrigo Blankenship has been accurate and deadly. He is perfect (36 of 36) on PATs while having hit 23 of his 26 FGA. Both of his misses came from beyond 40-yards, while he is a perfect 13 of 13 from within the 40.

GA TECH

Georgia Tech has struggled mightily in this 3-8 season it has compiled thus far. The Yellow Jackets were shut out by Virginia Tech two weeks, falling 0-45 despite being single-digit underdogs. Against NC State, it managed a win last week, defeating the Wolfpack 28-26 in a crucial rivalry game (if it really matters?).

Tech has done nothing particularly well this season. It ranks outside the top-100 teams in passing offense while clocking in at No. 71 via the rush. This, of course, leads to a rather futile attack that generates just 19.3 points per game. The defense does not make wins very plausible considering it surrenders 30.6 per.

The brightest spot of the Yellow Jackets’ offense has probably been that of lead-rusher Jordan Mason. Despite a pretty poor offensive line, he’s managed to rush for 862 yards on a 5.5 yard-per-carry average with seven touchdowns.

James Graham has rushed fairly well from the QB position (3-plus yards-per-attempt), but he has completed just 47.4 percent of his pass attempts this season while also having thrown seven interceptions, nearly matching his TD throws (11). His passer rating is a decent 114.9, but it is deceiving: He is a terrible throwing quarterback, and the Yellow Jackets will need to be on the recruiting trail if its receivers are ever to come anywhere near maximizing their respective potentials.

ATS TRENDS (C/o Covers):

Georgia
  • Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
  • Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. ACC.
  • Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in November.
  • Bulldogs are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 road games.
  • Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Bulldogs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Georgia Tech
  • Yellow Jackets are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win.
  • Yellow Jackets are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Yellow Jackets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
  • Yellow Jackets are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
  • Yellow Jackets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Yellow Jackets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Yellow Jackets are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Yellow Jackets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
  • Yellow Jackets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
  • Yellow Jackets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Yellow Jackets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
  • Yellow Jackets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
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