Oklahoma St Cowboys at Texas Longhorns, Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Saturday, November 13, 2010, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ABC or ESPN Gameplan
Opening Line: OSU -7
Current Line: OSU -5
Opening Total: 58
Current Total: 56
Money Line: OSU -220/ Texas +180
Oklahoma St hasn’t beaten Texas in Austin since 1944. This might be the year they break the streak. The Cowboys are 8-1 and ranked #12 in the country. Texas is 4-5 and is in danger of not going to a bowl. Texas has lost 4 of their last 5 games inlcuding all three at home to UCLA, Iowa St, and Baylor. Texas’s only win during the stretch inexplicably came at Nebraska who gave OSU their only loss of the season. Oklahoma St is in the driver’s seat and will go to their first ever Big 12 Championship game if they win out. The Cowboys have lost 12 in a row straight up to the Longhorns and Texas has gone 9-3 against the college football point spreads in those games. Oklahoma St is 8-0 ATS when they are favored by 3 1/2 to 10 1/2 points in the last 2 seasons. The Cowboys are 17-5 ATS as a favorite in the last 3 seasons. Texas is only 4-12 ATS on grass fields in the last two years.
Oklahoma St is coming off a 55-28 victory over then #21 Baylor. The game wasn’t that close as Baylor scored two late touchdowns when the game was already decided. The Cowboys are rolling on offense scoring 46 points a game and gaining 549 yards a game led by quarterback Brandon Weeden, running back Kendall Hunter and receiver Justin Blackmon. Weeden is the number 12 rated quarterback in the country with almost 3,000 yards passing, 26 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He has a QB rating of 160.5. Hunter is the nation’s 3rd leading rusher with 1,240 yards and 14 touchdowns. Blackmon is the nation’s leading receiver with 75 catches for 1,285 yards, and 15 touchdowns. Blackmon returned last week after a one game game suspension for a DUI arrest prior to the Kansas St game. The Cowboys do tend to struggle on defense as they give up more than 28 points and 413 yards a game. They do have a turnover ratio of +8 and they have forced 19 sacks this season.
The Longhorns are in freefall. The defense is playing pretty well, but the offense is inept for the most part. They are only scoring 22 points a game and averaging 372 yards a game. The main problems are turnovers and penalties. The Longhorns have a turnover ratio of -12 and give up 65 yards a game in penalties. on defense the Longhorns only give up 23 points a game and 267 yards per game. The Longhorns have forced 25 sacks this season. The Longhorns only have 21 touchdowns for the season and too often have to settle for field goals in the red zone. They have only scored 17 touchdowns in the red zone out of 39 attempts. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert has been inconsistent at best throwing for only 7 touchdowns and 14 inceptions. Gilbert does have 3 rushing TD’s as well. In fact there has been grumbling from the Longhorn faithful to bench Gilbert in favor of Case McCoy, younger brother of Longhorn legend Colt. The Longhorns rush for 140 yards a game. Four Longhorns including Gilbert have at least 62 carries, but they might be without Tre’ Newton who suffered a concussion last week in the Longhorn’s 39-14 loss at Kansas St. No Texas back has more than 299 rushing yards for the season. Six Longhorn receivers have at least 20 receptions and 200 receiving yards. The Longhorns only have 7 passing touchdowns for the season and Gilbert is only throwing for 231 yards a game.
At the beginning of the season people expected these teams to be in opposite positions. Texas was coming off an appearance in the national championship game and was ranked in the preseason top 5. Oklahoma St meanwhile lost 9 starters, including 2 first round picks in the NFL draft. They were expected to struggle as the young Cowboys learned how to play together. Pokes coach Mike Gundy will probably get some votes for National Coach of the year and might even win it. Texas tends to turn the ball over a lot and OSU has an opportunistic defense that garners turnovers. The Cowboys are confident but Texas is still a dangerous team and will look to avoid a 4 game home losing streak.
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