Well, last time I pled for you to jump aboard the gravy train, and kudos to you if you did, because this week I am 15-4 on Player Prop bets and have only had one losing night all season. Tonight’s lines offer a lot of intrigue as Bodog sometimes sets quirky lines given players’ recent play, which they don’t always take into account, instead going by season averages more often than not. That said, let’s take a look at tonight’s selected player prop bets for eight different bets.
Michael Beasley over/under 21.5 Pts vs SAS
OVER. Beasley is averaging 21.8 for the year, but that isn’t the reason I am giong over on this. He had 28 last game against the Spurs who play a pretty fast paced game and before a weak stretch of games here, he had a 4 game stretch in which he scored 24, 28, 30, and 33. He’s due to get back to having a big game and this is the right team to do it against. His strength and speed should be an advantage against Richard Jefferson.
Kevin Love over/under 20.5 pts vs SAS
OVER. Like Beasley, he exceeded this line last game against the Spurs with 25 points. The same reasons apply. He’s also had 23 or more in 4 of his last 5 games, the exception being a game against Boston, and Boston is the toughest team defense in the league, so his 3 of 11 shooting night against them can be excused.
Kevin Love over/under 15 rebs vs SAS
OVER. Last game against San Antonio he had 18 and he has had 19, 15, and 24 in his last three games. The 15 rebound game came against the best rebounding team in the league in Charlotte, and we went with the ‘under’ that night and won it. Tonight he goes over.
Antawn Jamison over/under 21.5 pts vs PHX
OVER. Since a rough start to the season in which Jamison wasn’t getting enough minutes, he’s since received more time than youngster J.J. Hickson and he’s made the most of it. His last 4 games he went for 21, 32, 35, and 19. Phoenix isn’t that good of a defensive team, though, and the higher paced game should allow him to exceed this line.
Chris Paul over/under 27 Pts+asts vs DEN
OVER. Denver doesn’t play good defense and Chris Paul averaged 20 & 10 with regularity before this season. I happen to think his play up to this point has just been an anomaly and I think tonight should be big game for him in what should be a high scoring affair.
Carmelo Anthony Over/Under 26.5 Pts vs NOH
UNDER. Carmelo has scored 26 or more in his last three games, but those games weren’t against defensive stalwart Trevor Ariza. In the second game of the season Ariza held him just under this line at 24 points and that is closer to his season average fo 24.4, which is also under. I’m not suggesting Melo has a bad game, but I think he scores between 21 and 24 for tonight’s game.
Nene Hilario over/under 22.5 Pts+Rebs vs NOH
OVER. Nene has been over this line in 3 of his last 4, and though he will be going against Okafor tonight, I expect him to exceed the line. The last time he faced New Orleans he did not have a good game, but that was in his second game of the year and he’s just starting to hit stride for whatever reason. He should barely exceed this line, making it one of the less enticing bets, but I still advocate an ‘over’ on this one.
Amar’e Stoudemire over/under 28.5 Pts vs LAL
UNDER. I understand Amar’e has been absolutely owning his competition of late, but if you read the game preivew for tonight’s game you would see that for his career in the Staples Center against the Lakers he is only averaging 15 points. He’ll be facing the Lakers’ imposing frontline, which is a lot different than last game when he played against the Suns. He’ll still have a good game, but fall just under this line.