NBA Selected Player Prop Bets for January 5th, 2011

Well, last night I went 4-4-1 for player prop bets, with championed pick DeMarcus Cousins finally living up to the ‘over’ expectations quite easily.  DeRozan is my hot pick for tonight given his recent dominance and Cleveland’s lackluster defense.  Bogut is also a strong candidate for the ‘under’ because he seems to have a lot of trouble accomplishing much of anything against Howard, and if the Magic blow the Bucks out, it will result in a lot of rest.  Odds and bets are taken from Bodog.  Here are my 12 predictions for tonight’s games.

Kevin Love is a beast on the boards, but Charlotte is the best rebounding team in the league and his average is under the total set by Bodog

DeMar DeRozan Over/Under 16.5 PTS vs CLE

OVER.  I went with the ‘over’ last night for DeRozan and it worked out — again.  He has scored 16 or more in all 5 of his last 5 games, including a 27 point and a 37 point game.  In the second game of the year he faced Cleveland, and went for 14, but played only 26 minutes.  In his last 16 games he has played 30 minutes or more, making it much easier to score over these lines.  This is an easy over and I would be nearly shocked if he didn’t manage to beat this line against a team like Cleveland.

Derrick Rose Over/Under 32.5 Pts+Asts vs NJN

UNDER.   Last game against New Jersey he combined for 28 pts+asts, and he has only beat 32.5 once in his last 5 games.  NBA oddsmakers have set the total for tonight’s game at 185, meaning it will be a lower scoring affair, which will make it more difficult for Rose to beat the total set by Bodog on this one.

Brook Lopez Over/Under 27.5 Pts+Rebs  vs CHI

UNDER.  He has gone under this total for all 5 of his last 5 games, including the matchup against the Bulls when he fell just short with 27 combined.  While he didn’t go against Noah that game, he won’t tonight, either.  It’s just that Kurt Thomas is a pretty decent defender and Taj Gibson will play a decent amount of minutes, and he’s a great defender.  Lopez’s struggle getting rebounds makes it difficult for him to beat these totals quite often, as evidenced by his recent play.

Andrew Bogut Over/Under 23.5 Pts+Rebs  vs ORL

UNDER.  For his career against the Magic and Dwight Howard, he is averaging only 17.1 total Pts+rebs, and his big game last time against the Magic means nothing.  Dwight Howard didn’t play and Bogut has a lot of trouble with Howard for two reasons:   a) he’s a much better player and defender and b) he wears Bogut out on offense.

Who will score more points, Keyon Dooling or Earl Boykins?

BOYKINS.  They have split the last 4 matchups, 2 a piece, but Boykins is the one who had two 26 point games, something Dooling isn’t capable of doing.  And just because Dooling plays a lot doesn’t guarantee anything.  In Boykins’ last 26 point outburst they BOTH played 30+ minutes.  Boykins may be tiny, but he can shoot, and somehow manages to get his shot off even in the most improbable circumstances.  The X Factor of course is minutes played, so we’ll see if Boykins can get 20+ minutes, in which case he’s a near lock to win the duel.

Hedo Turkoglu Over/Under 12.5 pts  vs MIL

OVER.  The oddsmakers have set the line right at his average since coming to Orlando.  He has had more than 12 in 3 of those 6 games, but with the amount of time Hedo spends with the ball, he should be able to score 13+ given that he attempts enough shots.  This is one of the dicier bets, and one I am less confident in, but I do feel Hedo has at least a 65% chance at beating the line.

Rajon Rondo Over/Under 23.5 Pts+asts  Vs SAS

OVER.  Given that Rondo is averaging about 13 assists a game, all this really requires is that he scores 10 points.  Given San Antonio’s fast paced game, he should have the opportunity to blow this line out of the water.  Boston might try to slow the pace down, but usually the fast paced team tends to control the tempo more.

Michael Beasley over/under 23 pts vs CHA

UNDER.  Beasley has barely COMBINED For 23 points in his last two games, scoring 10 and 19.  Charlotte is a slow it down team and Beasley will be going against a decent frontcourt tandem of Gerald Wallace and Boris Diaw.

Kevin Love  total rebounds over/under 16 vs CHA

UNDER.  He has failed to get more than 14 rebounds in 3 of his last 4 games, and 16 is above his season average.  He’s always capable of ripping down 20+, but Charlotte LEADS the league in rebounding.

LaMarcus Aldridge over/under 31.5 Pts+Rebs vs HOU

OVER.  Houston plays a fast paced game and last meeting he combined for 36 total pts+rebs.  He’s so heavily depended upon with Roy out that it should give him ample opportunity to have a big game scoring.

Carmelo Anthony over/under 26 pts vs LAC

OVER.  Last game against the Clippers he went for 30.  His average this year is only 24.0, but the Clippers are horrible both defensively and overall, and if this game isn’t a complete blowout (resulting in Anthony resting a lot), then he should go for over 26.  His heart may not be in Denver, but it hasn’t stopped him from giving a decent effort in games.

Vince Carter over/under 16.5 pts vs LAL

UNDER.  He’ll be facing Kobe Bryant, who won’t give Carter as many drives to the basket and open shots as he normally sees.

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