NBA Predictions: Selected Player Prop Bets for Tonight December 14th

Last time out, I split the difference, going 3 for 6 in my predictions, bringing my weekly total to 6-5. Here’s a look at some of the better lines for tonight’s games.  NBA odds are taken from Bodog.   Here are my selections for 12 players in tonight’s games.

Josh Smith tore up the Pistons last time out and his athleticism should enable him to have another big night

Jrue Holiday Over/Under 12 Pts vs NJN

OVER.  Last time against New Jersey on the 27th of November, Holiday went for 20 points and 13 assists and Philadelphia, despite being only -1 in NBA handicapping, is a superior team to the Nets and Holiday should have plenty of opportunities to create both his own shot and for teammates.  He is a near lock for 15 points at least tonight.

Brook Lopez Over/Under 27.5 Pts+Rebs vs PHI

OVER.  Lopez has exceeded the total in all three of his last games and managed 25 pts and 6 boards against Philly on the 27th in their last matchup.  This would give strong indication that he will indeed have another big game and exceed the total.  His rebounding won’t be the reason, though, as he is averaging a career low 6.3 boards a game, after having been over 8 in each of his first two seasons in the league.

Anthony Morrow Over/Under 13.5 Pts vs PHI

OVER.  Morrow has scored 15 or more in 4 of his last 6 games and is averaging 18 a game over his last two.  Last game against Philly he only scored 8, but that was due to not getting enough looks at the basket.  If he can manage to get up 17 attempts like he has in each of his last two games, this will be a very easy ‘over.’

DeMar DeRozan Over/Under 12 Pts vs CHA

OVER.  DeRozan has had 12 or more points in 5 of his last 7 games and is coming off a 16 point night against Detroit on the 11th.  While Charlotte seeks to play a slow paced game, DeRozan should have no problem getting his looks and should probably score between 13 and 17 tonight.

Boris Diaw Over/Under 12  Pts vs TOR

UNDER.  Diaw has been struggling and is still not in game shape.  Over his last two games he has COMBINED for 11 points and he has scored less than 12 in 6 of his last 7 games.  I don’t see any reason for him to pull out of that “slump” tonight and get back to his season average.

Josh Smith Over/Under Total Pts+Rebs 25.5 vs DET

OVER.  Last game against Detroit, Smith went nuts, going for 22 points and 11 boards.  It appears Bodog has set the line according to Smith’s season average (24.5 total pts+rebs) rather than taking into account the weak frontline of the Pistons.  Charlie Villanueva and Greg Monroe will provide little resistance for Smith and he should have a big game.

Carl Landry Over/Under 13 Pts vs HOU

UNDER.  Landry has played but an average of 15 minutes in the past two contests and scored a combined 10 points.  He’s going to have to see an increase in playing time to have any shot at scoring 13, and he’s not even averaging that much on the year (11.8).

Kevin Martin Over/Under 22.5 Pts

OVER.  Kevin Martin has been on fire lately, averaging 24.6 points per game over his last 6 games.  He scored 40 last game against the Cavs and has been getting the number of shots up required to put up the big numbers.  He’s also getting an absurd number of free throw attempts up, having shot 14, 13, and 15 free throws in his past three games.

Dwight Howard Over/Under 33.5 Pts+Rebs vs DEN

UNDER.  Nenê is one of the few big men capable of giving Dwight Howard problems as the has the muscle and strength to body up with Howard and push him out of his comfort zone.  For his career againt Nenê and the Nuggets Howard averages 16.9 ppg and 13.3 rpg, which is under the total by 3.2.

Michael Beasley Over/Under 23.5 Pts vs GSW

OVER.  Beasley is averaging 21.3 a game this year, but had a big game last time against Golden State, going for 28 points on 11 of 25 shooting from the floor.  If Beasley can get 20+ attempts again, this should be a near lock, and Beasley will have a size and strength advantage over opposing small forward Dorrell Wright.  Look for Beasley to post up some and take advantage of that.

Kevin Love Over/Under 0.5 Blks Vs GSW

OVER.  Love is averaging 0.5 blocks which makes for an interesting bet, but last game against Golden State he had 2 blocks, which is his season high actually.  While this one is something of a crap shoot, I have a good feeling about Love getting a block tonight, which would win the bet obviously.

Dorell Wright Over/Under 17 Pts vs MIN

OVER.  Last game against the Wolves, Wright went for 30.  He has scored 17 or more in only 2 of his last 7 outings, but tonight could be the night to break out of his slump, as his last big game was the one against Minny.

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