NBA Playoffs Game Four Betting Picks: #1 Boston Celtics at #4 Washington Wizards

2017 NBA Playoffs
Eastern Conference Semifinals Game #4
#1 Boston Celtics at #4 Washington Wizards
Celtics lead Best of Seven Series 2-1
Sunday, May 7, 2017, 6:30 pm Eastern, TV: TNT
Verizon Center – Washington, DC
Opening Line: Washington -4 1/2
Current Line: Washington -4 1/2
Opening Total: 216 1/2
Current Total: 215 1/2
Opening Money Line: Wizards -190 / Celtics +165
Current Money Line: Wizards -175 / Celtics +155

The Wizards look to even the series against the Celtics in game four.

The Boston Celtics lead the Eastern Conference Semifinals two games to one against the Washington Wizards. The home team has won every game in the series. Game four is Sunday in Washington.

Boston is coached by Brad Stevens. The Celtics won the Atlantic Division with a 53-29 record and are the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Despite losing the first two games at home, Boston beat the #8 seed Chicago Bulls in six games in the first round. The Celtics are 46-43-2 ATS and the total is 44-43-4 this season.

Washington is coached by Scott Brooks. The Wizards won the Southeast Division with a 49-33 record and are the #4 seed in the East. Washington beat the #5 seed Atlanta Hawks in six games in the first round. The Wizards are 46-44-1 ATS and the total is 57-34 this season.

The Celtics won game one 123-111 and game two 129-119 in overtime, both in Boston. The Wizards got back in the series with a 116-89 win in game three at home Thursday night. Washington was a 5.5 point favorite and the total was 218.5. Washington jumped out to a 39-17 lead in the first quarter. The Celtics never got closer than 19 points in the second quarter and trailed 63-40 at halftime. The Wizards led by as many as 30 in the third quarter and would lead 95-69 at the end of the third. The Wizards would cruise to a 27 point win.

Boston shot 27/77 from the field including 10/32 from three point range. The Celtics made 25/33 of their free throws. Boston had 50 rebounds, 20 assists, 16 turnovers, 4 steals and 2 blocks. The Celtics had 6 fast break points and 28 points in the paint. Washington shot 43/92 from the field including 8/25 from three point range. The Wizards made 22/25 free throws. Washington had 60 rebounds, 26 assists, 10 turnovers, 7 steals and 5 blocks. The Wizards had 14 fast break points and 56 points in the paint.

John Wall had 24 points, 8 assists, and 3 steals for the Wizards. Otto Porter, Jr. had 19 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals. Bojan Bogdanovic had 19 points, 10 rebounds and 2 assists. Marcin Gortat had 13 points, 16 rebounds and 2 assists. Bradley Beal had 11 points and Markieff Morris had 10 points. Al Horford had 16 points, 3 assists and 2 rebounds for the Celtics. Jae Crowder had 14 points and 6 rebounds. Isaiah Thomas had 13 points, 4 assists and 3 rebounds. No other Celtic scored more than 9 points.

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Boston is outscoring teams 108-105 this season. The Celtics are #7 in scoring. Boston is shooting 45.4% from the field and 35.9% from 3 point range. Boston make 80.7% of their free throws and are #3 in that category. Opponents are shooting 45% from the field and 33.2% from 3 point range. The Celtics are #2 in 3 point defense and #9 in field goal defense. Boston averages 42 rebounds per game and opponents average 44.5 per game. The Celtics are #25 or worse in both categories. Boston averages 24.4 assists, 13.2 turnovers, 8.2 steals and 3.5 blocks per game.

Isaiah Thomas averages 28.9 points, 2.7 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game. The MVP candidate is still grieving after the loss of his sister in a car accident the day before the Bulls series started. Avery Bradley averages 16.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.2 steals per game.  Al Horford averages 14 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5 assists and 1.3 blocks per game. Jae Crowder averages 13.9 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. Marcus Smart averages 10.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.6 steals per game. Kelly Olynyk averages 9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2 assists per game. Jaylen Brown, Amir Johnson, Gerald Green, Terry Rozier, Jonas Jerebko, and Tyler Zeller will also get minutes in the rotation.

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Washington is outscoring teams 109-107 this season. The Wizards are #5 in scoring but #21 in points allowed in the NBA. Washington is shooting 47.5% from the field and 37.2% from 3 point range. The Wizards are in the top ten in both categories. Washington makes 78.4% from the free throw line. Opponents are shooting 46.6% from the field and 36.4% from 3 point range. Washington is #20 or worse in both categories. The Wizards average 42.8 rebounds per game and opponents average 43 per game. The Wizards average 23.9 assists, 13.5 turnovers, 8.5 steals and 4.1 blocks per game.

John Wall averages 23.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 10.7 assists and 2 blocks per game. Bradley Beal averages 23.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Markieff Morris averages 14 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.1 steals per game. He is probable with a sprained ankle suffered in game one.  Otto Porter, Jr. averages 13.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game. He is probable with an elbow injury. Bojan Bogdanovic averages 12.7 points and 3.1 assists per game.  Marcin Gortat averages 10.8 points, 10.4 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. Marcus Thornton, Kelly Oubre, Jr., Jason Smith, Ian Mahinmi. Trey Burke and Brandon Jennings will also get time in the rotation. Mahinmi is out indefinitely with a calf injury. Oubre is suspended for game four after a flagrant foul in game three.

Boston is 6-1 ATS after a double digit loss, overall and against Eastern Conference teams, 4-1 against teams with winning records, in road games and against teams with winning home records, and 7-18 on 2 days rest. The Celtics are 8-3 ATS in this series recently.

Washington is 7-1 ATS on two days rest, 5-2 at home, 2-5 against teams with winning records, overall, against Eastern Conference teams and against Atlantic Division teams, and 1-4 in Sunday games. The favorite has covered the last four games in this series, and the home team is 7-0 ATS recently in this series.

The home team has won all seven games this season between these two teams. I like that trend to continue. However, another trend is that each game in the second round in all four series has been decided by 10 points or more. The Celtics won game two in overtime by 10 points, but other than that every other game has been a blowout. I think we are due for a close game.

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