NBA Playoffs Betting Picks: Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers Game Four

2016 NBA Playoffs
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals – Game #4
#2 Toronto Raptors at #7 Indiana Pacers
Raptors Lead Best of Seven Series 2-1
Banker’s Life Fieldhouse – Indianapolis, Indiana
Saturday, April 23, 2016, 3:05 pm Eastern, TV: TNT
Opening Line: Toronto -1 1/2
Current Line: Toronto -1 1/2 (-108)
Opening Total: 193
Current Total: 193
Opening Money Line: Raptors -125 / Pacers +105
Current Money Line: Raptors -125 / Pacers +105

The Pacers look to even the series against the Raptors.
The Pacers look to even the series against the Raptors.

The Toronto Raptors have never won a best of seven game series in their history. In fact, they have only advanced out of the first round once back in 2001 when the first round was best of five. The #2 seeded Raptors lead the #7 Indiana Pacers 2-1 as the two teams play game four of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Saturday in Indianapolis. Indiana won game one in Toronto 100-90 while Toronto won game two at home 98-87. The Raptors regained home court with a 101-85 win Thursday in game three in Indianapolis.

Toronto is coached by Dwayne Casey. The Raptors won the Atlantic Division for the third straight season with a 56-26 record by 8 games over the Boston Celtics. Toronto is the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference but they were only a game behind the Cavaliers. The Raptors  are 47-36 ATS and the total is 42-42-1 this season.

Indiana is coached by Frank Vogel. The Pacers finished 45-37 and were in second place in the Central Division behind the Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 games. Indiana is the #7 seed in the Eastern Conference. Indiana is 42-42-1 ATS and the total is 37-48 this season.

Toronto was a 1 point favorite in game three and the total was 194.5. The Pacers lead early 9-8 but would never lead again in the game. The Raptors took a 53-36 lead into halftime. In the second half, Indiana never got closer than 12 points as the Raptors grabbed the 16 point win. Toronto guards Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan each scored 21 points. DeRozan had struggled in the first two games. Paul George had 25 points, 10 rebounds and 6 assists in a losing effort for the Pacers.

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Toronto is outscoring teams 103-98 this season. The Raptors are #3 in points allowed this season. Toronto is shooting 45.1% from the field and 37% from three point range. The Raptors are #5 in three point shooting. Toronto makes 77.7% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 44.4% from the field and 37.3% from three point range. The Raptors are #29 in three point defense. Toronto averages 43.4 rebounds per game and opponents average 40.8 per game. The Raptors are #4 in rebounds allowed. Toronto averages 18.7 assists, 12.1 turnovers, 7.8 steals and 5.5 blocks per game.

Guard DeMar DeRozan averages 23.5 points per game, 4.5 rebounds, 4 assists and 1 steal per game. Guard Kyle Lowry averages 21.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.4 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. Center Jonas Valanciunas averages 12.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game. Forward DeMarre Carroll averages 11 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game. Terrance Ross, Luis Scola, Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson, Bismack Biyambo and James Johnson will also get some minutes in the rotation.

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Indiana is outscoring teams 102-101 this season. The Pacers are #8 in points allowed in the league. Indiana is shooting 45% from the field and 35.1% from three point range. The Pacers make 76.4% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 44% from the field and 33.4% from three point range. The Pacers are #6 or better in both categories. Indiana averages 44.2 rebounds per game and opponents average 44.5 per game. The Pacers average 21.2 assists, 14.3 turnovers, 9.1 steals and 4.8 blocks per game.

Forward Paul George will likely win the Comeback Player of the year after missing all but a handful of games last season with a horrific broken leg. He averages 23.1 points, 7 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.9 steals per game. Guard Monta Ellis averages 13.8 points, 3.3 rebounds 4.7 assists and 1.9 steals per game.  Guard George Hill averages 12.1 points, 4 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Forward C.J. Miles averages 11.8 points and 2.7 rebounds per game. Forward Myles Turner averages 10.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Ian Mahinmi, Rodney Stuckey, Jordan Hill, Lavoy Allen and Ty Lawson will also get minutes in the rotation.

Toronto is 5-1 ATS against Central teams, 4-1 overall and against Eastern Conference teams, 6-2 in Saturday games, 5-2 against teams with winning records, and 2-8 in first round games. The Raptors are 42-20 ATS against the Pacers and have covered nine of the last ten in Indianapolis.

Indiana is 4-1 ATS after a double digit home loss, and after a loss by 10 points or more, 8-3 after a straight up loss, 5-2 in Saturday games, 2-5 against teams with winning records, and 2-5-1 against teams with winning road records. The under is 5-1 overall in this series and 5-2 in Indianapolis between the teams.

Lowry and DeRozan finally played like the stars they are and Toronto looked like the team that won 56 games in the regular season. George has been incredible for the Pacers in this series but he can’t do it alone. very game in this series has been decided by double digits. I think Toronto wins a close low scoring game to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

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